A methodology for evaluating the performance of model-based traffic prediction systems

Model-based traffic prediction systems (mbTPS) are a central component of the decision support and ICM (integrated corridor management) systems currently used in several large urban traffic management centers. These models are intended to generate real-time predictions of the system’s response to candidate operational interventions. They must therefore be kept calibrated and trustworthy. The methodologies currently available for tracking the validity of a mbTPS have been adapted from approaches originally designed for off-line operational planning models. These approaches are insensitive to the complexity of the network and to the amount and quality of the data available. They also require significant human intervention and are therefore not suitable for real-time monitoring. This paper outlines a set of criteria for designing tests that are appropriate for the mbTPS task. It also proposes a test that meets the criteria. The test compares the predictions of the mbTPS in question to those of a model-less alternative. A t-test is used to determine whether the predictions of the mbTPS are superior to those of the model-less predictor. The approach is applied to two different systems using data from the I-210 freeway in Southern California.     

《防超劳预警表》的实践与思考

通过对《机车乘务员超劳预警通知书》进行电子化改造和相关功能完善,目标是为了通过可视化的提醒方式,向机务段派班员、机车调度员、计划调度员、列车调度员以及车站值班员等直接涉及运输组织的人员提供机车乘务员劳动时间的相关信息,以便实现对超劳情况的提前发现、提前组织,减少由于信息传递滞后造成的机车乘务员超劳情况。     

Multi-step prediction of experienced travel times using agent-based modeling

This paper develops an agent-based modeling approach to predict multi-step ahead experienced travel times using real-time and historical spatiotemporal traffic data. At the microscopic level, each agent represents an expert in a decision-making system. Each expert predicts the travel time for each time interval according to experiences from a historical dataset. A set of agent interactions is developed to preserve agents that correspond to traffic patterns similar to the real-time measurements and replace invalid agents or agents associated with negligible weights with new agents. Consequently, the aggregation of each agent’s recommendation (predicted travel time with associated weight) provides a macroscopic level of output, namely the predicted travel time distribution. Probe vehicle data from a 95-mile freeway stretch along I-64 and I-264 are used to test different predictors. The results show that the agent-based modeling approach produces the least prediction error compared to other state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art methods (instantaneous travel time, historical average and k-nearest neighbor), and maintains less than a 9% prediction error for trip departures up to 60 min into the future for a two-hour trip. Moreover, the confidence boundaries of the predicted travel times demonstrate that the proposed approach also provides high accuracy in predicting travel time confidence intervals. Finally, the proposed approach does not require offline training thus making it easily transferable to other locations and the fast algorithm computation allows the proposed approach to be implemented in real-time applications in Traffic Management Centers.     

水泥混凝土路面翘曲脱空与面板破坏原因分析

文章针对广西近年来水泥混凝土路面翘曲脱空与面板破坏的情况,分析产生病害的原因,介绍采用有限元程序对翘曲脱空后的路面在荷载作用下的受力进行计算的方法,对翘曲脱空后的路面寿命进行预估,同时提出翘曲脱空的防治对策。     

带阻尼绕组的永磁同步电动机起动分析

摘要：为了改善永磁电机的起动性能,建立了无阻尼绕组和带阻尼绕组两种永磁同步电动机的数学模型方程,并建立它们的模型,在一组参数下对两种永磁同步电动机进行了起动性能仿真,比较分析了带阻尼绕组的永磁同步电动机在起动上的优点。     

某型通气管升降装置的特点分析及改进建议

  目的  开展潜艇通气管进气阀结构优化,减小进气阻力,对潜艇的节能降耗和工作安全具有重要意义。  方法  采用计算流体动力学（CFD）方法对进气阀的阻力特性进行模拟分析,并通过实验验证计算结果的准确性。同时,对阀盘行程和进气角度这2项参数进行调节与分析,得到进气阀阻力及结构的相关规律。  结果  结果显示：进气阀压力损失随阀盘行程的增大而逐渐减小,但在阀盘行程h>244 mm之后继续增大阀盘行程对降低压力损失的贡献不大;当进气角度θ>65°时,进气阀压力损失会急剧上升,而当进气角度θ < 65°时,角度变化对进气阀压力损失的影响不大。  结论  研究表明,阀盘行程和进气角度对进气阀阻力特性具有重要影响,通过结构优化,可显著降低进气阀的进气阻力,所得结果对工程设计具有一定的指导意义。     

城市交叉口交通流特征与短时预测模型

时间尺度大于15 min的城市交通流预测模型已无法满足交通信号实时控制和交通信息实时发布的需求, 通过对广州市中心区交叉路口交通流长期观察和数据采集, 分析了各种时间尺度的交通流特性, 提出以路口信号周期作为时间尺度, 绿灯流率作为变量的ARIMA (p, d, q) 短时交通预测模型。以1个和3个信号周期的时间尺度为例, 对城市交叉路口不同时间段交通流进行建模和预测。结果表明ARIMA (p, d, q) 预测模型结构稳定, 算法简单, 时间尺度为3个信号周期的预测模型可以很好地保持交通流特征, 均方根误差为0.015 9, 预测精度较高。     

Assessment of factors associated with travel time reliability and prediction: an empirical analysis using probabilistic reasoning approach

Significant efforts have been made in modeling a travel time distribution and establishing measures of travel time reliability (TTR). However, the literature on evaluating the factors affecting TTR is not well established. Accordingly, this paper presents an empirical analysis to determine potential factors that are associated with TTR. This study mainly applies the Bayesian Networks model to assess the probabilistic association between road geometry, traffic data, and TTR. The results from this model reveal that land use characteristics, intersection factors, and posted speed limits are directly associated with TTR. Evaluating the strength of the association between TTR and the directly related variables, the log odds ratio analysis indicates that the land use factor has the highest impact (0.83) followed by the intersection factor (0.57). The findings from this study can provide valuable resources to planners and traffic operators in their decision-making to improve TTR with quantitative evidence.     

悬浮隧道整体冲击响应模拟方法及试验验证

为研究水下悬浮隧道管体在冲击荷载下的整体动力响应,提出对应的简化模拟方法,在有限元软件ABAQUS中结合自定义幅值（UAMP）子程序进行了冲击荷载作用下考虑流体作用的悬浮隧道整体响应分析。基于Morison方程,将流体作用分为非线性阻力和附加质量力。首先,以分段线荷载的形式表示流体阻力沿管体纵向的不均匀分布。在UAMP子程序中采用FORTRAN语言编写与管体运动速度相关的流体阻力幅值计算程序。通过在ABAQUS与UAMP子程序之间管体运动速度和流体阻力幅值的交互传递,实现了荷载大小同时随时间和空间变化的非线性流体阻力加载。其次,考虑与管体加速度相关的流体附加质量力,其幅值在ABAQUS中通过定义浸没式截面自动计算。最后,进行悬浮隧道整体模型冲击试验,采用提出的模拟方法对试验典型工况进行分析,并将计算结果与试验实测值进行对比。结果表明：提出的建模方法能较好反映悬浮隧道结构动力特性;随着冲击强度的增大,冲击点处管体最大位移和加速度增大,且峰值均出现在第1个运动周期内;采用简化模拟方法分析所得的管体位移和加速度响应与试验结果基本一致;该模拟方法的计算精度与流体阻力分段线荷载的分段长度有关,当分段长度小于管体总长的1/20时,分析结果趋于稳定。因此,基于UAMP子程序的流体作用的简化数值模拟方法能较好地用于悬浮隧道整体冲击响应分析,误差在工程允许范围内。     

激光熔覆方法增强自卸车钢板耐磨性能研究

磨损是影响自卸车车厢使用寿命的主要原因之一,研究利用激光熔覆方法,制备出含有TiC、VC增强颗粒的熔覆层。利用X射线衍射仪、电子探针、透射电镜对增强颗粒进行微结构分析;利用滑动磨损试验机研究了熔覆层的耐磨损性能。结果表明,激光熔覆层的耐磨性明显好于Q235板材。