旅客购票模式与渠道关联选择行为的建模分析

为分析多元化售票渠道下旅客购票选择行为的影响因素及交互特征，解析了多渠道情境下旅客购票过程的 3个阶段，辨识了旅客购票的 3类典型模式；运用协同进化分析思想，建立了购票模式与渠道关联选择的协同进化 Logit模型；基于道路客运联网售票信息系统数据，进行了模型的实证应用，分析了特征变量对旅客购票选择行为的影响，揭示了渠道与模式间关联选择行为特征.研究表明：性别，年龄，提前购票时间，出行时间，出行里程，发车频率等因素对旅客购票行为有显著影响；旅客购票模式和渠道选择间存在相关性，某一决策选择受另一决策结果的影响；考虑两者的交互作用有助于提高分析预测精度，2类决策模型的精度分别提高了5.98%和5.72%.     

考虑居住区位的公共交通出行行为分析模型

为探讨不同层面居住区位对公共交通出行行为的影响，基于计划行为理论与群体动力理论，构建涵盖居住区位与心理影响因素共同作用的多水平结构方程模型.模型同时考虑个体层面与社区层面变量对出行选择的影响，利用Mplus软件标定模型参数.结果表明，不同层面变量对出行行为意向的影响存在差异.个体层面变量对行为意向的影响程度由大到小依次为：居住区位(0.665)、主观规范(0.664)、行为态度(0.577)、知觉行为控制(0.547).社区层面变量的影响程度为：行为态度(0.736)大于居住区位(0.646).     

智能手机使用行为对驾驶可靠性的影响模型

为解决智能手机使用行为对驾驶安全影响过程缺少定量描述的问题，基于驾驶行为信息加工和注意分配理论，探索智能手机使用行为与驾驶可靠性的关联关系，提出7 个因果关系假设，构建涵盖视觉资源消耗、认知资源消耗、驾驶不可靠性等潜变量的智能手机使用行为影响的结构方程模型. 通过线上与线下相结合的方式进行驾驶人问卷调查，实证分析结果表明，视觉资源消耗(0.448)、认知资源消耗(0.256)对驾驶可靠性具有直接负向效应，信息输入、显示观看、语音通话及心理特征具有间接负向效应，其中显示观看(0.450)的效应最大.     

复合型开孔板连接件抗剪性能试验

为提高开孔板连接件(PBL)的抗剪性能，提出了带柔性套筒的复合型PBL连接件，并对其抗剪性能进行试验研究，建立复合型PBL承载力计算方法。基于贯穿钢筋弯拉受力模型，推导其抗剪作用表达式，得到PBL孔内应力扩散角对贯穿钢筋抗剪作用的影响规律。设计制作8个PBL推出试件并进行破坏试验，探究柔性套筒壁厚对复合型PBL抗剪刚度、承载能力、延性、破坏模式及孔内钢筋混凝土榫传力机制的影响。研究结果表明：极限状态下，复合型PBL的贯穿钢筋弯拉变形较大，荷载-滑移曲线呈现明显的强化特征，且连接件延性得到显著改善；与无柔性套筒的常规PBL比较，贯穿钢筋周围包裹2 mm壁厚套筒的复合型PBL极限承载力和相应滑移分别提高了40.0%和42.6%；继续增大柔性套筒壁厚，由于孔内混凝土榫的有效剪切面积削弱，且两侧混凝土对贯穿钢筋的局部支撑作用减小，连接件承载力有所降低，但延性得到持续改善。将试验结果与已有常规PBL承载力计算公式进行对比分析表明，以钢筋混凝土榫剪切变形为主的常规PBL承载力计算公式对复合型PBL抗剪承载力计算误差较大，相关公式计算值均小于试验实测值。结合复合型PBL传力机理，给出了考虑混凝土榫剪切作用、贯穿钢筋作用和混凝土板局部支撑作用的PBL承载力计算公式。与试验结果对比发现，所提承载力公式计算值与试验结果吻合良好，可用于复合型PBL抗剪承载力的确定。     

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黄灯政策问题已成为道路交通安全领域的研究热点.本文开发了基于视频处理技术的交叉口检测系统,自动采集黄灯期间的交通数据,包括黄灯启亮时车辆到停止线距离、速度、加速度和黄灯结束后车辆的通过情况,建立黄灯期间的驾驶员“停车/行进”决策行为模型和“抢黄灯”行为结果模型.利用北京市“闹市口大街—宣武门西大街”和“中关村东路—成府路”的视频数据对模型进行检验,两个模型的预测结果与实际观测误差分别为8.6%和2.5%.实验结果表明,视频检测技术和驾驶员行为模型能够应用于交叉口的控制管理,本文提出的模型与方法可为相应交通管理措施的制定和实施提供技术支持和理论依据.     

Applications of Random-Utility-based Multi-region Input–Output Models of Transport and the Spatial Economy

Abstract

An introduction to random-utility-based multiregional input–output models used for the purpose of spatial economic and transport interaction modelling is provided. The main methodological developments and important results of a dozen applications from the years 1996–2013 are described. This is followed by an outlook of potential future directions. Further research is mainly needed in five areas: (a) overall validation of the method, perhaps through back-casting applications on infrastructure plans with observed trade impacts; (b) extensions of trade coefficient models to add realism and improve accuracy; (c) the use of multi-scale modelling to capture interdependencies between geographical scales and to improve the representation of exports and imports; (d) improvements in the representation of price effects, as well as innovation and technological progress, by way of variable technical coefficients; and (e) a deeper investigation of the algorithm used to include elastic selling prices.     

Heavy commercial vehicles‐following behavior and interactions with different vehicle classes

This work investigates the effect of heavy commercial vehicles on the capacity and overall performance of congested freeway sections. Furthermore, the following behaviors of heavy commercial vehicles and its comparison with passenger cars are presented. Freeways are designed to facilitate the flow of traffic including passenger cars and trucks. The impact of these different vehicle types is not uniform, creating problems in freeway operations and safety particularly under heavy demand with a high proportion of heavy vehicles. There have been very few studies concerned with the traffic behavior and characteristics of heavy vehicles in these situations. This study draws on extensive data collected over a long stretch of freeway using videotaping and surveys at several sites. The collected data were firstly used to study the interaction between heavy vehicles and passenger cars. Through a detailed trajectory analysis, the following behaviors of 120 heavy vehicles were then analyzed to provide a thorough understanding of heavy vehicles‐following behavior mechanism. The results showed a significant difference in the following behavior of heavy vehicles compared with other vehicles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Random regret minimization or random utility maximization: an exploratory analysis in the context of automobile fuel choice

Interest in alternative behavioural paradigms to random utility maximization (RUM) has existed ever since the dominance of the RUM formulation. One alternative is known as random regret minimization (RRM), which suggests that when choosing between alternatives, decision makers aim to minimize anticipated regret. Although the idea of regret is not new, its incorporation into the same discrete choice framework of RUM is very recent. This paper is the first to apply the RRM‐model framework to model choice amongst durable goods. Specifically, we estimate and compare the RRM and RUM models in a stated choice context of choosing amongst vehicles fuelled with petrol, diesel and hybrid (associated with specific levels of fuel efficiency and engine capacity). The RRM model is found to achieve a marginally better fit (using a non‐nested test of differences) than its equally parsimonious RUM counterpart. As a second contribution, we derive a formulation for regret‐based elasticities and compare utility‐based and regret‐based elasticities in the context of stated vehicle type choices. We find that in the context of our choice data, mean estimates of elasticities are different for many of the attributes and alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

轨道列车时刻表问题研究综述

广泛的实践应用和复杂的计算挑战,使得轨道列车时刻表优化问题,多年来一直是交通运 输及运筹管理学界的热点研究问题。作为轨道交通运营规划的一个子阶段,列车时刻表向上与 线路规划(或开行方案)、向下与动车组调度融合,可以得到多个延伸的研究选题。在特定的时空 网络中,列车时刻表设计就是为每个列车确定一条无冲突的运行路径,使基于用户的度量指标如 乘客候车时间,或企业的度量指标如运营费用达到最优。对于没有列车越行和停站模式给定的 情况,通过整数变量可以完整地刻画列车时刻表模型,但如果考虑列车越行或列车停站决策,则 需要引入列车在车站出发顺序或停车决策的0-1变量。一般而言,列车时刻表问题的数学模型是 一类典型的大规模、多目标、强耦合的NP完全问题。算法设计是列车时刻表问题最为重要和困 难的部分。对于问题较简单或规模较小的情况,常用方法是对原有复杂问题进行适当简化和(或) 对难处理表达式进行合理修改,然后使用先进的计算架构和商用优化软件求解更新后模型。当 然,分支定界和动态规划这两类直接分解算法,是求解列车时刻表问题的重要方法。对于问题复 杂和规模庞大的情况,以拉格朗日和列生成为代表的对偶分解算法,则是求解列车时刻表问题的 最佳选择。未来,探讨列车时刻表与各种现实需要(如设施维修),以及时变票价和客票分配等因 素之间的深度融合,是一个有价值的研究方向;其次,研究网络环境下列车时刻表问题,将是一个 非常有意义的研究选题;最后,应进一步设计集成了问题特点与现代优化技术的各类求解算法, 开发能够完全应用于实际运营的商用软件。     

支座偏心距对曲线箱梁桥力学行为的影响规律

结合工程实际,主要对一座三跨连续曲线箱梁桥在两种支座布置形式下的结构力学行为随支座偏心距的变化规律进行了分析。研究结果表明:对于小曲率半径的曲线梁桥,当中支墩为独柱支墩时,可对中支墩单支座设置合理偏心距来调整曲线桥的扭矩分布及边支墩支座反力分布;而当全部支墩都设置抗扭支座时,边支墩内外侧支座不平衡反力只能通过对相应边支墩支座设置偏心距来调节,但改变边支墩支座偏心距却无法调整曲线梁桥的扭矩分布。