基于混合Logit模型的出租车超速者运营因素分析

根据超速频次、平均超速严重度和平均超速持续时间等3类超速特征,判断出租车超速者类型,明确运营因素对超速者类型的影响.本文利用成都市出租车GPS轨迹数据提取此3类超速特征,并筛选出若干运营因素.而后,应用模糊C-均值聚类确定4类出租车超速群体(超速者I、II、III和IV型).运用相关随机参数混合Logit模型,估计单个...     

葵花拱桥拱上填料模拟方法研究

拱桥作为一种传统的桥型,因具有良好的受力性能在世界各地广泛应用.拱上填料如何在电算程序中既便捷又准确地模拟,一直是桥梁设计行业中存在争议的话题.以开化县芹江大桥老桥的桥梁为例,提供了土柱+虚拟梁法和变截面连续梁法两种模拟方法,通过在相同条件下进行建模分析,对比了在恒载作用下和在恒载+汽车荷载+人群荷载作用下桥梁墩台的反...     

服务于路网诱导的可变信息板研究

可变信息板(VMS)是进行路网诱导的有效方式,而国内在这方面的研究和应用还处于起步阶段。以工程实际为出发点,首先采用模糊聚类法进行诱导路网的选择研究;然后考虑驾驶员对VMS的反应,研究VMS的选型;再结合现有规范,从施工与认知性的角度,提出VMS版面设计中应该遵循的原则,并给出示例;最后考虑驾驶过程中驾驶员的认知性特点,采用State Prefer- ence方法的研究结论,提出了VMS的设置原则。研究结果及相关建议,对VMS在路网诱导中的应用具有重要的借鉴作用。     

某车型侧围D柱下角板冲压成型问题浅析

采用AUTOFORM软件对某车型侧围D柱下角板数模进行成型性有限元分析,预测出3处起皱或开裂风险。为解决D柱下角板成型问题,通过对D柱下角板成型工艺特点进行分析,并结合理论知识对造成D柱下角板成型不良的原因进行了详细研究;根据分析结果,通过优化产品结构,改善工艺结构,优化料片,使D柱下角板在成型过程中材料流动得到改善,提高产品的工艺性;通过CAE模拟再次进行分析验证,D柱下角板的起皱变量和减薄率均得到明显改善,通过现场调试优化,使D柱3种成型问题得到了解决。     

城市轨道交通双线变宽连续U梁设计

对某工程城市轨道交通双线变宽连续U梁进行精细化设计.该桥采用三跨连续结构,变宽幅度远超同类型其他桥梁,设计难度较大.其变宽段采用了将中腹板进行"加厚+加箱室+分岔"的系统设计方法,整体构造复杂,需进行深入研究.通过建立全桥杆系与三维有限元模型,分析全桥空间应力效应、主桥横向受力、变宽段局部受力以及支反力与多腹板剪力分配...     

Driver response to variable message signs: a stated preference investigation

This paper uses a Stated Preference approach to undertake a detailed assessment of the effect on drivers’ route choice of information provided by variable message signs (VMS). Although drivers’ response to VMS information will vary according to the availability of alternative routes and the extent to which they are close substitutes, our findings show that route choice can be strongly influenced by the provision of information about traffic conditions ahead. This has important implications for the use of VMS systems as part of comprehensive traffic management and control systems. The principal findings are that the impact of VMS information depends on: the content of the message, such as the cause of delay and its extent; local circumstances, such as relative journey times in normal conditions; and drivers’ characteristics, such as their age, sex and previous network knowledge. The impact of qualitative indicators, visible queues and delays were examined. It was found that not only is delay time more highly valued than normal travel time, which is to be expected, but that drivers become more sensitive to delay time as delay times increased across the range presented.     

管幕冻结法钢管-冻土接触面剪切试验研究

为研究“管幕冻结法”这一新型工法中 “钢管-冻土”复合结构接触面剪切强度的影响因素及规律,基于港珠澳大桥拱北隧道工程,通过变角剪切试验方法设计不同剪切角度的试验,对温度和粗糙度2个维度进行探究,试验结果拟合出-5、-10、-15、-20、-25 ℃ 5种温度条件以及R=0.0、0.3、0.5 mm 3种粗糙度条件下的剪切面剪切强度包络线。试验结果表明： 温度对钢管-冻土接触面内摩擦角影响不大; 对接触面黏聚力,在-15 ℃之前,黏聚力近似呈线性增长,在-15 ℃达到峰值,在-20 ℃达到波谷,继而随温度的降低而增加。钢管-冻土接触面粗糙度的增加对结构面剪切强度的提高具有正向促进作用,但粗糙度过大会对接触面处的冻土体结构（如冰颗粒和土颗粒间隙等）造成一定的内部损伤,导致剪切强度下降。试验给出最优剪切强度下的温度及粗糙度取值区间。     

基于全周期抽样的搜索自适应Monte Carlo重要抽样法的船舶总纵强度可靠性研究

引入随机过程理论,确定表征船舶总纵弯曲载荷和强度的随机变量的概率分布及统计特征,针对船体梁总纵弯曲的失效模式,提出全周期抽样的搜索自适应Monte Carlo重要抽样法进行船体总纵强度可靠性分析;该方法对传统的Monte Carlo法进行改进,有效地平衡了Monte Carlo方法的计算速度与计算精度之间的矛盾,利用较少的抽样次数可得到更加理想的抽样密度函数和收敛速度更快、精度更高的失效概率计算结果;最后以某军用艇为例,分别采用本文方法与JC法进行船体总纵强度可靠性评估,并对计算结果进行了比对分析.     

Active school travel: homogeneity or heterogeneity? That is the question

ABSTRACT

To explain and predict active school travel (AST), most studies have not investigated to what extent considering taste heterogeneity is an important influence on AST share. The main aim of the present study was to evaluate whether considering unobserved taste heterogeneity through mixed logit models – including random coefficient and random coefficient analysis (RCA) – materially improves/influences the AST prediction compared to a simpler model – the multinomial logit (MNL) model. The database comprises 735 valid observations. The results show that, with a 10% increase in perceived walking time to school, the MNL model predicts that the AST share would decrease by 7.8% (from 18.9% to 17.4%) while the RCA model predicts that it would decrease by 8.5% (from 18.9% to 17.3%). Thus, the expected share of AST is overestimated by MNL by one-tenth of a percentage point. Although there might be random taste variations around perceived distance to school, it seems the other important policy-sensitive variables, such as safety perception, homogeneously impacts on the AST share across households with different socioeconomic and built environment characteristics. Our empirical assessment suggests that considering taste heterogeneity does not necessarily improve the accuracy of analysis for the aggregate share of the AST concerning policy-sensitive variables.     

车轮踏面磨耗及轨道不平顺联合作用下的车辆-轨道系统随机分析模型

车轮磨耗和轨道不平顺具有随机特征。基于车轮圆周磨耗的概率特征及高斯分布假设,将车轮型面离散化,形成车轮型面磨耗量的概率反演方法;同时,基于轨道不平顺概率模型,实现轨道不平顺在不同幅-频状态下的遍历随机模拟。结合车辆-轨道耦合动力学理论和概率方法,建立考虑车轮踏面磨耗-轨道随机不平顺耦合作用的车辆-轨道随机分析模型,并用一类概率密度演化方程解决模型的概率密度传递问题。此模型能较好分析车辆-轨道系统在不同车轮型面磨损及线路随机不平顺联合作用下的动力响应分析及可靠度计算问题。