Modeling traffic crash rates of road segments through a lognormal hurdle framework with flexible scale parameter

This study examines distributional characteristics of crash rates for road segments using observed accident data. The results indicate that the distribution of crash rates is mixed and right‐skewed, which motivates the consideration of non‐normal distributions. With the aid of Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests, kernel density plots, and Q–Q plots, the lognormal distribution is verified as an appropriate candidate for representing the positive domain of crash rates. Then, a lognormal hurdle model was developed and also compared with gamma and Weibull hurdle models. Further, the lognormal hurdle model was revised by allowing the scale parameter to vary with respect to explanatory variables. Such a modification enables the heterogeneous skewness of samples to be captured while enhancing the modeling flexibility. The proposed model was also compared with a Tobit model, an alternative approach that treats crash rates as censored data. Among all these models, the proposed lognormal hurdle model with flexible scale parameter presents the best modeling performance, and the analyses also reveal that several explanatory variables affect crash rates through not only the location parameter but also the scale parameter in the lognormal model. This study finally attempted to inspect crash rates through count models, and it discovered that the proposed hurdle model is superior because it is able to output the whole distribution form of crash rates, whereas the crash count model can only provide the expected value of crash rates, provided the exposure variable servers as an offset term in the link function of the mean parameter. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同行车密度下轨道交通换乘站客流情况研究

随着轨道交通网络的不断完善,换乘站的作用日益明显.不同行车密度下的轨道交通换乘客流通常会对换乘站形成脉冲式的客流冲击,从而对换乘站的客流疏散能力提出了一定的考验.从候车客流、滞留人数、疏散时间等三个方面对不同行车密度下高峰时段轨道交通换乘站的客流疏解及滞留情况进行了专题研究.以上海轨道交通江苏路站为例,验算了不同行车密...     

跳跃扩散模型外汇重置期权定价

在完全外汇市场环境下讨论了外汇汇率过程受Brown运动和Possion过程共同驱动时外汇重置期权的定价问题.利用等价鞅测度和标准正态分布函数给出了这一模型下单时点重置外汇看涨期权的定价公式,最后在常系数条件下导出了一种特殊形式外汇重置期权的Black-Scholes公式.     

Techniques for the inference of mileage rates from MOT data

Abstract

Mathematical and computational techniques are developed for the processing and analysis of annual Ministry of Transport roadworthiness (MOT) test data that the UK Department for Transport has placed in the public domain. First, techniques are given that clean erroneous records and a linking procedure is provided that permits the inference of an individual vehicle's mileage between consecutive tests. Methods are then developed that analyse aggregate mileage totals, as a function of vehicle age, class and geography. The inference of aggregate mileage rates as a function of time is then considered.     

Hydrology, sediment yield, erosion and sedimentation rates in the estuarine environment of the Ria de Vigo, Galicia, Spain

The aim of this study is to provide a budget study with calculated erosion rates. Three methods have been used to calculate sediment yield and denudation rates in the Ria de Vigo: (1) measurements of sediment loads, (2) measurements of sediment accumulation rates at the coast, (3) theoretical calculations of potential denudation. Sediment loads and water discharge were measured over a period of 14 months from May 1997 to July 1998. Two of the tributaries entering the Ria de Vigo were monitored for 12 more months, from May 2000 to May 2001, to observe changes in discharge and sediment loads. This period corresponded with atypical precipitation, with peak monthly values (600 mm) three times higher than those on record.Water rating curves are typically exponential. Suspended and dissolved loads vary for different rivers, showing values of 1.5 to 130 mg/l during 1997/1998. For 2000/2001, these values are twice as high. Suspended load versus discharge relationships for 1997/1998 were logarithmic, but data from 2000/2001 does not fit the same equation. Dissolved loads are several times higher than suspended loads in almost all cases. Dissolved load concentrations vary more widely with discharge than suspended loads. This is probably due to local pollution and contamination from marine spray in areas closer to the sea.Second, erosion rates and bed load sediment yields were calculated from accumulation rates at the Ramallosa Complex. Well-preserved estuarine and tidal sediments, associated with the Minor River, have accumulated in this area during the Holocene. ¹⁴C ages allow calculation of sedimentation rates (SR) for two intervals. The lower interval extends from 2001 to 484 years BP and yields an SR of 1.12 mm/a. The upper interval extends from 484 years BP to the present and has an SR of 3.3–4.4 mm/a. These differences may be explained by basin dynamics as the beach progressively encloses the area and also by human interference. From sedimentary facies analysis it is concluded that 90% to 95% of the accumulated deposits were transferred to the basin as bed load. Muddy deposits (mostly marshes) are better developed at the upper part of the sediment pile, and inner areas, indicating a progressive shallowing and filling up of the basin. Most of suspended load is exported to the ria, whereas the Ramallosa Complex acts as a sediment sink for bed load derived material.Calculated potential erosion rates using Ahnert's [Am. J. Sci. 268 (1970) 243] equation show lower values than those estimated from river load concentrations. Potential erosion rates for the Minor River are higher than for the Lagares River which contrast with mechanical denudation rate values from river loads during 1997/1998 which are higher for the Lagares River. During 2000/2001 MDR values were higher than those of the potential erosion rates for both rivers, in line with the extremely high precipitation. Higher values in the Lagares could be in part due to human interference.     

A new method of identification of equivalent suspension and damping rates of full-vehicle model

ABSTRACT

The equivalent spring and damper are often used to simplify the dynamic analysis of a nonlinear full-vehicle model. Clearly, those rates are strongly influenced by the kinematics of a suspension mechanism. This paper presents a new approach to the identification of the equivalent suspension and damping rates. The suspension is considered as a 1-degree-of-freedom (DOF) spatial parallel mechanism. The instantaneous kinestatic relations of the 1-DOF spatial parallel mechanism can be described using the theory of screws. The process of identification of the rates involves three steps: first, the joint positions of the suspension are found from the displacement analysis of the suspension mechanism. Second, the motion of each wheel of four suspension mechanisms is represented by the corresponding instantaneous screw at any instant. Third, the equivalent suspension and damping rates are determined from the kinestatic relations of the instantaneous screw. These rates are used for the dynamic analysis of the nonlinear full-vehicle model consisting of two pairs of the front (double-wishbone) and rear (multi-link) suspensions. Two dynamic behaviours of a car are analysed and compared with the simulation utilising the Adams/View software.     

高速公路隧道明洞合理回填坡率与厚度分析

结合某高速公路隧道工程实例,以隧道进出口拱形明洞为研究对象,分析了明洞各典型截面在不同回填坡率、不同回填厚度下的内力变化规律及差异,并以拱顶截面安全系数为标准分析总结了各回填坡率下最大回填土厚度。计算结果具有一定普遍性。无特殊构造要求的明洞结构,洞室形状尺寸与该工程类似的均可根据洞顶回填坡率确定最大回填土厚度。     

Exchange rate changes and the cost competitiveness of international airlines: The Aviation Trade Weighted Index

Discussions of how changes in exchange rates impact on international airlines tend to be ambivalent. In this paper, it is shown that the relative cost competitiveness of an international airline will decline when there is an exchange rate appreciation in its home country - as will be the case for other tradable goods and services. The extent to which this happens depends on which countries the prices of the inputs are set in and also on which countries' airlines it is closely competing with. The impact is greater if there is an appreciation relative to those countries whose airlines the home airlines are closely competing with. In the trade literature, this is recognised in the Trade Weighted Index of exchange rates, which weights exchanges rates according to their importance in a country's trade flows. In this paper, an Airline Trade Weighted Index is developed - the weights for this index depend on airline traffic and revenues on routes to and from a country. The ATWI is calculated for Australian international airlines, and it indicates that there has been a significant loss of competitiveness in recent years, due to the appreciation of the Australian dollar relative to currencies of key airline competitor countries.     

出行源点用地的居民出行生成预测

从居民出行产生的根源--用地入手,分析我国经济快速发展时期城市用地的新特征,引入出行源点的概念并分析其产生机理.在此基础上提出既经济又适用的基于用地功能产生率法的改进方法--基于出行源点土地利用的居民出行生成预测体系,并对体系中的模型进行了检验和修正.最后,应用该方法预测北京南中轴快速公交项目客流密度,既节省人力物力,又可得出可靠结果.     

Passenger rail in North America in the light of developments in Western Europe and Japan

Because of different geo‐demographic and economic conditions, the impact of the new passenger modes (road and air) on rail travel was much larger in North America than in Europe. In 1960s and 1970s, as the railway share of intercity traffic in North America shrunk to a negligible one or two percent, the passenger trains were abandoned by private railway companies and taken over by state organizations, which have continued to operate traditional trains and generate mounting losses. On the technology side, no attempts have been made to improve competitiveness of trains vis‐a‐vis automobiles and airplanes.

In Europe and Japan, the railways responded to the challenge by (i) upgrading the performance (speed) and comfort of traditional trains operating on existing tracks and (ii) developing trains which could, on short and intermediate range distances, compete successfully, in terms of speed and economy, with the road and air modes. The Japanese (Shinkansen trains) and French (TGV trains) experience clearly shows that trains operating on dedicated lines at average speeds of 150 to 200 km/hr provide a superior transportation service and economy on high‐traffic intercity routes of up to about 500 km length. In this paper the factors responsible for the present status of passenger rail in North America are analysed, the current policies in the U.S. and Canada are evaluated in the light of experience to date and developments abroad, and suggestions for a long‐term passenger rail policy are made. This includes examination of (i) the viability of continued subsidization of traditional train services, (ii) the viability of operation of faster trains on existing tracks, (iii) the scope for introduction of modern, fast trains on dedicated lines in high‐density, intercity corridors, (iv) the application of fast trains as access to major airports and integration of airports with fast intercity lines, and (v) the impact of energy (oil) consumption in transportation.