基于任务需要的海警大型舰艇基本需求建模与分析

以线性和非线性需求结合方式建立了以满足任务需要为条件的海警大型舰艇基本需求组合模型,预测计算了多个样本国海警大型舰艇基本需求数,结果表明该模型有一定的实用性.据此对中国海警大型舰艇基本需求进行预测,预测结果可对中国海警大型舰艇发展规划提供参考.     

Simulating ad-hoc demand-responsive transportation: a comparison of three approaches

Transport models are used to evaluate new infrastructure and public transport services, varied levels of demand, and new ideas for demand management. Exploring these proposals virtually is easier than implementation and testing in situ. However, existing models are based around traditional forms of transportation. As part of a feature analysis using a case study approach, three different simulation packages (a simple custom-developed package, traffic microsimulation, and agent-based simulation) are used to develop and demonstrate simulations of demand-responsive transportation (DRT) and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each simulation approach for evaluating DRT. While the simulations display some relational replication (meaning they produce similar relational patterns with respect to certain variables), they do not show distributional replication (that is, the value of the results is not statistically similar), meaning that under- or over-estimation of predicted travel could occur. Recommendations for the application of each modeling approach are made.     

青岛地铁蓄电池工程维护车车钩挂梁结构设计

文章分析了青岛地铁2号线蓄电池工程维护车出现车钩"低头"现象的原因,并给出了一种通过加装车钩挂梁结构以支撑车钩的解决方案。文章还对挂梁结构进行了强度校核,确保该结构满足实际工况需求。     

Fueling for contingencies: The hidden cost of unpredictability in the air transportation system

The aviation community is increasing its attention on the concept of predictability when conducting aviation service quality assessments. Reduced fuel consumption and the related cost is one of the various benefits that could be achieved through improved flight predictability. A lack of predictability may cause airline dispatchers to load more fuel onto aircraft before they depart; the flights would then in turn consume extra fuel just to carry excess fuel loaded. In this study, we employ a large dataset with flight-level fuel loading and consumption information from a major US airline. With these data, we estimate the relationship between the amount of loaded fuel and flight predictability performance using a statistical model. The impact of loaded fuel is translated into fuel consumption and, ultimately, fuel cost and environmental impact for US domestic operations. We find that a one-minute increase in the standard deviation of airborne time leads to a 0.88 min increase in loaded contingency fuel and 1.66 min in loaded contingency and alternate fuel. If there were no unpredictability in the aviation system, captured in our model by eliminating standard deviation in flight time, the reduction in the loaded fuel would between 6.12 and 11.28 min per flight. Given a range of fuel prices, this ultimately would translate into cost savings for US domestic airlines on the order of $120–$452 million per year.     

在建盾构隧道突发管片破损病害成因分析及治理措施研究北大核心CSCD

盾构法广泛应用于我国城市轨道交通隧道的建设中,盾构管片的病害问题也越发受到重视。文章针对某地铁在建盾构隧道突发管片破损病害,绘制了管片破损病害展布图,分析了相关资料和检测数据,明确了病害的成因机理,制定并实施了相应治理措施。研究结果表明:管片背后大范围空洞导致围岩对隧道的约束不足,引起已成型隧道在盾构机反推力和扭矩、同步注浆浆液浮力、刀盘水土压力和扭矩等作用下发生类压杆弯扭失稳是导致该病害的主要原因;隧道变形监测数据表明"背后注浆填充+破损部位修复"两阶段治理措施取得了良好的治理效果;盾构隧道施工过程中,应严格管控同步注浆质量,防止隧道轴线偏移引起盾构管片发生开裂破损等病害。     

洋山深水港区进港海堤变形观测及分析

为了解洋山深水港区西港区A区陆域形成对进港海堤的影响,自2006年10月初开始对进港海堤进行变形观测,此项工作至今仍在观测中.根据2006年10月至2007年12月,15个月的观测资料,阐述东海大桥进港海堤的变形观测方法与精度,同时,结合地质资料分析变形观测的数据.     

提高柴油机供油系统可靠性探讨

柴油机的供油系统是柴油机的重要组成部分,是柴油机的心脏与血脉,它对柴油机的燃烧以及柴油机的动力性、经济性、可靠性和排放特性等一系列性能指标有着有直接的影响。统计数据表明,在柴油机的各种故障中,供油系统的故障比例最高．本文对柴油机供油系统进行可靠性分析,并对如何提高其可靠性提出建议．     

某型号船用钢索在无失效情况下的可靠性研究

为研究船用特种钢索的可靠性,设计研制了相应的可靠性试验台,对5套钢索进行了截尾可靠性寿命试验.针对钢索试验中的无失效情况,确定了钢索失效概率的多层先验分布,并给出了其Bayes估计.用最小二乘法给出寿命分布的参数估计,进而得到可靠度估计.最终利用试验评估结果证明钢索满足可靠性要求.     

多波束声速改正模拟及其误差分析

声速改正是多波束测量误差的主要来源,文章介绍了多波束声速改正的原理和实现方法。着重解释了声速变化对海底测点位置和深度的影响,利用V-basic和Excel电子表格形式,采用实际声速剖面模拟了任意波束测点海底位置和深度的计算过程,定量地揭示了浅层声速数据对海底弯曲变形的成因和影响程度;利用误差传播理论分析了声速对测量误差的影响。     

基于CSR的散货船主要支撑构件设计分析

基于散货船共同结构规范（CSRBC）的、船长小于150m的散货船,其主要支撑构件（PSM）按CSRBC计算要求的板厚偏大。考虑到CSRBC允许“对于船长小于150m船舶的主要支撑构件的强度校核可通过船级社认可的直接计算强度评估来进行”,该文采用了CCS的直接计算分析软件,以23000dwt散货船为实例,按照其主要支撑构件的实际设计尺寸,对其进行了强度校核,结果表明完全满足衡准要求。因此,这种方法可以作为基于CSR的该类散货船主要支撑构件强度校核的补充。