水泥混凝土路面结构模糊随机可靠度设计方法研究

我国水泥混凝土路面设计经历了3个发展阶段：经验法、力学一经验法和可靠度设计法。由于荷载、环境作用和结构设计参数的随机性和模糊性，它们都将影响路面结构的可靠度水平。为了更好地发展现有路面设计理论，系统地分析了现有水泥混凝土路面设计规范，对路面结构可靠度进行了定义和讨论。采用模糊随机可靠度理论，对水泥混凝土路面结构可靠度设计方法进行了系统分析，研究提出了路面模糊随机可靠度的设计公式，讨论了各个设计变量的变异性，并结合具体设计提出了详细的步骤和思路。     

太阳能游船光伏逆变器控制系统EMC设计

从船舶环境和光伏逆变器的基本原理和功能出发,分别对太阳能游船EMC干扰源和干扰路径进行分析,通过信号滤波与保护、工艺设计和试验测试,实现高可靠性的太阳能游船光伏逆变器控制系统研究和设计,为太阳能游船的光伏逆变器控制系统研究提供基本EMC设计思路与实现技巧。     

深度模拟器液压系统仿真研究

介绍了深度模拟器总体结构及工作原理,针对深度模拟器控制系统中PID算法及其相关参数进行了仿真研究。以深度模拟器液压系统为模型,利用AMESim仿真软件工具,对整个液压系统进行了仿真分析并对系统各元器件的参数进行了优化,为深度模拟器的进一步研究提供了理论基础。     

Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.     

基于概率密度演化的斜拉索多级变幅时变疲劳可靠度分析

拉索是斜拉桥的主要受力构件,在车辆、风等交变荷载作用下易发生多级变幅疲劳损伤,而经典可靠度方法预测多级变幅时变疲劳可靠度难度大且计算效率低。针对这一问题,提出一种高效的多级变幅斜拉索时变疲劳可靠度预测方法。基于Miner累积损伤理论,建立同时考虑荷载和材料随机性的变幅疲劳损伤概率演化模型;构建应力幅出现频率指标,解决多级变幅疲劳损伤演化过程中偏微分方程难以确定问题,通过概率密度演化方法精确计算多级变幅时变疲劳可靠度,并采用五级变幅材料试验数据和某桥梁斜拉索的模拟数据验证所提方法的可行性。结果表明:所提方法的计算效率远高于蒙特卡洛方法;在小概率失效时,其计算精度高于蒙特卡洛方法。     

A multi-objective optimization model for sustainable logistics facility location

This paper offers an exploratory study of sustainable facility location. The methodology, based on the classical uncapacitated facility location problem, provides decision makers with a multi-objective optimization model to determine the trade-off among economic, service and environmental considerations. Our results indicate that it may be desirable to open more facilities than optimal from a narrow economic perspective to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of transport and to improve service reliability.     

Improving train service reliability by applying an effective timetable robustness strategy

ABSTRACT

To avoid propagation of delays in dense railway timetables, it is important to ensure robustness. One strategy to improve robustness is to provide adequate amount of buffer times between trains. This study concerns how “scheduled minimum headways” should be determined in order to improve robustness in timetables. Scheduled minimum headways include technical minimum headway plus some buffer time. We propose a strategy to be implemented in timetables at the final stages of planning and prior to the operations. The main contributions of this study are 1) to propose a strategy where the size of the scheduled minimum headways is dependent on trains' travel times instead of a fixed-sized time slot and it is called “travel time dependent scheduled minimum headways” or TTDSMH, 2) to evaluate the effects of the new strategy on heterogeneity, speed, and the number of trains in timetables, 3) to show that a simple strategy can improve robustness without imposing major changes in timetables. The strategy is implemented in an Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for timetabling and tested for some problem instances from Sweden. Results show that TTDSMH can improve robustness. The proposed strategy can be applied in intelligent transportation tools for railway timetabling.     

Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.     

Robust traffic assignment model: Formulation,solution algorithms and empirical application

ABSTRACT

The deterministic traffic assignment problem based on Wardrop's first criterion of traffic network utilization has been widely studied in the literature. However, the assumption of deterministic travel times in these models is restrictive, given the large degree of uncertainty prevalent in urban transportation networks. In this context, this paper proposes a robust traffic assignment model that generalizes Wardrop's principle of traffic network equilibrium to networks with stochastic and correlated link travel times and incorporates the aversion of commuters to unreliable routes.

The user response to travel time uncertainty is modeled using the robust cost (RC) measure (defined as a weighted combination of the mean and standard deviation of path travel time) and the corresponding robust user equilibrium (UE) conditions are defined. The robust traffic assignment problem (RTAP) is subsequently formulated as a Variational Inequality problem. To solve the RTAP, a Gradient Projection algorithm is proposed, which involves solving a series of minimum RC path sub-problems that are theoretically and practically harder than deterministic shortest path problems. In addition, an origin-based heuristic is proposed to enhance computational performance on large networks. Numerical experiments examine the computational performance and convergence characteristics of the exact algorithm and establish the accuracy and efficiency of the origin-based heuristic on various real-world networks. Finally, the proposed RTA model is applied to the Chennai road network using empirical data, and its benefits as a normative benchmark are quantified through comparisons against the standard UE and System Optimum (SO) models.