基于博弈论的多利益主体绿色供应链两阶段博弈分析

本文主要研究绿色供应链多利益主体的博弈行为和决策选择问题。首先提出了包含制造企业、政府、分销商与消费者的绿色供应链多方博弈分析框架。其次,通过博弈理论合理构建了两阶段博弈,第一阶段针对制造企业、政府、消费者三者进行博弈分析,第二阶段基于委托代理机制针对制造企业与分销商进行博弈分析。最后从理论上分析绿色供应链中各方优化协调的效率,重点分析在政府参与下,不同博弈策略对绿色供应链管理的影响。     

快速公交系统通行能力研究

通行能力分析是快速公交系统规划、设计和优化的基础。基于GI/G/1排队论模型和车站有效停靠泊位数构建了快速公交系统通行能力计算方法,其参数设置涉及影响快速公交系统通行能力的各种因素。通过对北京、广州、厦门、郑州等多个中国城市快速公交系统运营状况的调查分析,对相关参数进行了标定,以使其反映中国各地快速公交系统运营实际。最后以广州、厦门、郑州三市的快速公交系统为例,对上述方法的应用进行说明。     

Stability and bifurcation in network traffic flow: A Poincaré map approach

Previous studies have shown that, in a diverge-merge network with two intermediate links (the DM network), the kinematic wave model always admits stationary solutions under constant boundary conditions, but periodic oscillations can develop from empty initial conditions. Such contradictory observations suggest that the stationary states be unstable. In this study we develop a systematic approach to investigate the stability property of stationary states in this and other networks within the framework of network kinematic wave theories. Based on the observation that kinematic waves propagate in a circular path when only one of the two intermediate links is congested, we derive a one-dimensional, discrete Poincaré map in the out-flux at a Poincaré section. We then prove that the fixed points of the Poincaré map correspond to stationary flow-rates on the two links. With Lyapunov’s first method, we demonstrate that the Poincaré map can be finite-time stable, asymptotically stable, or unstable. When unstable, the map is found to have periodical points of period two, but no chaotic solutions. We further analyze the bifurcation in the stability of the Poincaré map caused by varying route choice proportions. We apply the Poincaré map approach to analyzing traffic patterns in more general (DM)ⁿ and beltway networks, which are sufficient and necessary structures for network-induced unstable traffic and gridlock, respectively. This study demonstrates that the Poincaré map approach can be efficiently applied to analyze traffic dynamics in any road networks with circular information propagation and provides new insights into unstable traffic dynamics caused by interactions among network bottlenecks.     

Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大吨位徐变仪球铰非线性接触分析

因研究桥用高强度混凝土材料徐变性能的需要,自主研制了大吨位徐变仪。对于处于接触受力状态的徐变仪球铰区域,先用Hertz接触理论估算球铰区域尺寸范围,然后利用ANSYS通用有限元软件对该区域分别取2种垫板凹槽球径的模型进行接触分析,通过对比球铰区域的最大接触压力、mises应力、第3主应力来进一步确定垫板凹槽的合理球径。用该徐变仪对2座大桥成功进行了高强度混凝土徐变试验,并实际验证了试验荷载下徐变仪球铰区域的受力性能,以及有限元接触分析结果的正确性。     

带阻尼板结构的圆筒型平台波浪载荷预报分析

运用三维势流理论和Morison公式相结合的数值计算方法分析筒型平台的运动响应和波浪载荷特点,采用Morison公式计算平台舭部阻尼板结构的波浪力;对于大尺度结构,波浪载荷采用线性绕射理论进行计算,分析表明,该圆筒型海洋平台的波浪力和运动响应计算结果可直接用于结构设计.     

基于模糊聚类理论的TBM施工围岩可掘进性分级预测模型

文章针对硬岩掘进机(TBM)在复杂地质条件下的可掘进性,进行了系统及定量的研究;基于模糊聚类理论和施工样本数据分析,建立了以掘进速率为分级指标,包括岩石单轴抗压强度、岩石完整性系数、围岩结构面与隧道轴线夹角和渗水量四项性质指标的可掘进性分级预测模型,将TBM施工围岩可掘进性分为好、一般和差三个性能等级;并在此基础上进一步细化模型粒度,以提高模型的精度和地质适用性。将所建模型应用于西秦岭隧道和大伙房水库输水隧洞工程实际工程效果表明,TBM掘进速率与由模型预测的掘进速率基本相吻合,验证了掘进性分级预测模型的可行性、科学性和有效性,进而对TBM的选型、设计和施工提供了重要的理论依据。     

基于粗糙集的相邻交叉口信号控制方法研究

复杂交通区域的交通状况难以利用具体模型直接描述,而粗糙集理论能够在分析大量经验数据的基础上找到用于决策的规则。以交大东路上的行人和机动车为研究对象,提出一种基于粗糙集的信号配时算法,对交大东路上的两个相邻交叉口的信号灯进行控制,提出控制规则,对该复杂交通区域进行优化和疏导,是对多交叉口交通管理与控制的一次有益尝试。     

石灰处理软土路基当量回弹模量换算新方法

在分析了现行设计规范中当量回弹模量计算公式缺陷的基础上,通过大量计算分析,以等效弯沉的原则,回归出了荷载作用半径为15cm的换算公式。修正后的新公式适用于天津地区石灰土与原状软土模量比小于8且石灰处理厚度大于20cm的路基顶当量回弹模量换算。     

省域上市公司社会责任报告前因研究——以江西省为例

我国各省上市公司发布企业社会责任报告数量存在严重差异,且发布比率较低。文章从制度视角分析了省域强制、规范和管理认知要素对省域上市公司发布企业社会责任报告的影响,并提出了省级政府及监管部门应制定企业社会责任报告要求,新闻媒体加大对企业社会责任监督力度,发挥管制制度作用和规范制度的强制与规范作用,不但直接提升企业社会责任报告,而且通过提升企业管理者对企业社会责任认知从而提升企业社会责任;与此同时应大力提升企业管理者对企业社会责任认知力度,发挥管理认知对企业社会责任报告的直接作用。