长江南京以下12.5m深水航道二期工程安全应急方案研究

安全应急预案对于提高安全事故中的救援能力、减少安全事故带来的损失具有重要的意义。以南京以下12.5m深水航道二期工程为背景,对拟定的安全应急预案进行分析研究,总结出安全应急预案体系包括综合安全应急预案、专项应急预案和现场处置方案,提炼各层次预案对应的事件类型和具体内容,并编制首接责任制下的应急组织机构和应急流程。     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

工程总承包模式下项目业主风险防范探讨

文章结合工程总承包的特点,分析了工程总承包模式下项目业主在项目实施过程中所面临的风险,提出了相应的防范风险的措施。     

高埋深软硬岩互层地质条件下敞开式TBM岩爆段施工方法研究

基于喜马拉雅山区域某软硬岩性互层地质条件下的深埋隧洞工程,为解决该区域TBM施工过程中的岩爆问题,统计分析了TBM施工过程中的岩爆特征;在施工过程中开展了多种岩爆规避试验,形成了一套较完整的有针对性的施工方法： 1）岩爆风险巡查常态化; 2）超前地质预报和超前处理措施相结合; 3）支护材料和支护方式合理化; 4）掘进参数动态调整。在后续的施工中加以应用,取得了较好的效果,可以为类似地质条件下的安全施工提供参考。     

Vehicle mass as a determinant of fuel consumption and secondary safety performance

One interaction between environmental and safety goals in transport is found within the vehicle fleet where fuel economy and secondary safety performance of individual vehicles impose conflicting requirements on vehicle mass from an individual’s perspective. Fleet characteristics influence the relationship between the environmental and safety outcomes of the fleet; the topic of this paper. Cross-sectional analysis of mass within the British fleet is used to estimate the partial effects of mass on the fuel consumption and secondary safety performance of vehicles. The results confirmed that fuel consumption increases as mass increases and is different for different combinations of fuel and transmission types. Additionally, increasing vehicle mass generally decreases the risk of injury to the driver of a given vehicle in the event of a crash. However, this relationship depends on the characteristics of the vehicle fleet, and in particular, is affected by changes in mass distribution within the fleet. We confirm that there is generally a trade-off in vehicle design between fuel economy and secondary safety performance imposed by mass. Cross-comparison of makes and models by model-specific effects reveal cases where this trade-off exists in other aspects of design. Although it is shown that mass imposes a trade-off in vehicle design between safety and fuel use, this does not necessarily mean that it imposes a trade-off between safety and environmental goals in the vehicle fleet as a whole because the secondary safety performance of a vehicle depends on both its own mass and the mass of the other vehicles with which it collides.     

信号交叉口行车风险场建立及车辆通行行为优化

随着汽车逐步向智能化、网联化发展,智能网联车辆逐步进入实际应用阶段。进行智能网联车辆的通行行为优化,对提升驾驶安全性和行车效率,避免事故发生和交通拥堵至关重要。车辆在通过交叉口时将受到很多环境及运动因素的影响,而现有的通行优化模型难以准确表达各类因素共同作用下的行驶环境。为此,基于风险场理论建立由环境场和运动场组成的信号交叉口行车风险场,表征信号交叉口中每点的实时行车风险程度,从而引导车辆驶向风险值低点,并提供下一步长的位移及速度指引,实现车辆的动态轨迹优化及速度控制。典型场景下的仿真结果表明：在优化模型的控制下单车的信号交叉口通行效率明显提升,其中直行方向车辆单车平均通行效率提升最高,平均提升6.35%,通过对交叉口面积内所有车辆进行通行行为优化,交叉口通行效率提升了9.3%,这表明所建模型可以准确表达交叉口行车环境并优化车辆通行行为。研究结论可应用于自动驾驶车辆的交叉口通行控制,并为网联环境下的行车环境表达和安全驾驶控制提供模型基础。     

The impact of the Polar Code on risk mitigation in Arctic waters: a “toolbox” for underwriters?

The existing risk weighing on vessel, crew and ecosystem in the Arctic and more globally in Polar waters promoted the adoption of the Polar Code (PC) early 2017, a mandatory international legal framework intended for enhanced safety and environmental protection. While the substance of the PC has been extensively analyzed, few studies have focused on the underlying relationships between the PC and underwriters. Based on an extensive literature review, documentary materials and interviews with insurance companies, this article conceptualizes the PC as a “toolbox” and analyzes how underwriters can exploit it in their work within the emerging Arctic market. The PC does not only regulate the navigation in Arctic waters in legal terms, but is also aimed at mitigating risks in the Polar areas through the identification of hazard sources and proceduralization of risk assessment. As a result we observe a certain “Polar Code paradox”. Even though the PC is a risk-based instrument and constitutes a key step for improving ship insurability, it has only limited capacity to assist underwriters in assessing risks and insuring vessels. Marine insurers still face a lack of data and high pending uncertainties leading them to exercise extreme caution with Arctic risks appraisal.     

自动驾驶汽车中乘员在不同座椅朝向下的损伤风险及规避策略

在高度自动化车辆（Highly Automated Vehicle,HAV）中,由于不再需要驾驶人,乘客之间可以实现面对面的交流,这给车辆座椅的布置提供了更大的灵活性。为提高HAV的碰撞安全性,提出使用旋转座椅来改变人体朝向与碰撞方向相对位置的规避策略,其基本思路是在碰撞发生前通过主动改变座椅朝向来降低乘员损伤。首先,利用尸体试验数据对所建立的碰撞模型进行验证;然后,基于4种不同的座椅朝向,利用THUMS^TM人体模型进行初始速度为56 km·h^-1的正面碰撞模拟试验,以确定相对安全的座椅朝向位置;最后,预测座椅旋转过程本身以及旋转至某位置后发生碰撞的乘员损伤风险。在静态正面碰撞中,选择0°、90°、135°和180°四种不同的座椅朝向进行乘员损伤预测和比较,结果表明180°朝向时的乘员损伤风险最小。在此基础上,模拟了200 ms内将座椅旋转±45°和±90°,以及分别在0 ms和100 ms时间延迟后引入碰撞的试验过程。研究结果表明：200 ms能够将乘员旋转±45°和±90°而不引起额外的人体损伤,并且在无时间延迟时,旋转至背对碰撞方向的乘员损伤,比正面碰撞中0°、90°和135°座椅朝向的乘员损伤更低,证明了该损伤风险规避策略的有效性。     

公路隧道运营典型风险辨识

为加强对公路隧道运营风险的辨识、改善和优化公路隧道运营安全,降低重大隧道事故对人员伤亡、隧道结构、设备和经济收益的损失,通过隧道事故调研和大数据技术,收集近些年在全国范围内发生的802起公路隧道事故,对公路隧道自身特性和隧道事故的时间、空间、类型、诱因等特征进行分析。研究结果表明： 1)外界因素对隧道事故影响较大,在高温和车流量较大的环境下,事故发生较多; 2)特长隧道和长隧道的事故数远高于短隧道和中隧道; 3)小型车是隧道内发生事故的主要车型,事故原因多是驾驶员违规驾驶,事故类型多为追尾事故; 4)火灾事故的诱因多为车辆自身故障,其中危化品泄露多为易燃液体泄露。     

Simulation-based severe weather-induced container terminal economic loss estimation

Container terminals play a critical role in maritime supply chains. However, they show vulnerabilities to severe weather events due to the sea–land interface locations. Previous severe weather risk analysis focused more on larger assessment units, such as regions and cities. Limited studies assessed severe weather risks on a smaller scale of seaports. This paper aims to propose a severe weather-induced container terminal loss estimation framework. Based on a container terminal operation simulation model, monthly average loss and single event-induced loss are obtained by using historical hazard records and terminal operation records as model inputs. By studying the Port of Shenzhen as the case study, we find that the fog events in March lead to the longest monthly port downtime and the highest monthly severe weather-induced economic losses in the studied port. The monthly average loss is estimated to be 30 million USD, accounting for 20% of the intact income. The worst-case scenario is found to be a red-signal typhoon attack which results in nearly 20% decrease in the month’s income. The results provide useful references for various container terminal stakeholders in severe weather risk management.