基于层次分析法的渤海海峡跨海通道项目投资风险分析

为了评估渤海海峡跨海通道项目的投资风险,利用层次分析法进行了投资风险分析,分解了影响渤海海峡跨海通道项目的各项因素,按各因素对项目总风险影响大小进行排序,分析了在项目进展过程中最应该把握的关键因素。分析结果表明:各子项目的影响程度从大到小依次是地理条件、技术水平、意外事件、资金、资源利用和政策法规;按风险由大到小将风险划分为4个级别,海底地质情况风险最大,防灾救援系统、照明系统等隧道项目中的基础功能设施风险较大,洞口防洪设施、隧道监控系统等设施风险较小,规划预留功能风险最小;最后对结果进行了解释,项目规划者与投资者可以参考分析结果进行风险管理。     

模糊综合评价法在PPP项目风险评价中的应用

根据PPP项目的特点,识别PPP项目运作过程中的风险,建立了PPP项目的风险评价指标体系。采用模糊综合评价方法,力求定性的分析定量化,使PPP项目的风险评价更加有效。最后以基础设施建设项目为例,介绍了该方法的应用。     

工程招投标的博弈论分析

从博弈论的角度分析招投标的理论基础,指出招投标这种制度能够起到择优选择的作用,但同时指出招投标制度的良好运行是建立在几个假设条件之上的,并为招投标制度良好运行提出了建议与措施。     

Driver behavior formulation in intersection dilemma zones with phone use distraction via a logit-Bayesian network hybrid approach

Use of cellular phone while driving is one of the top contributing factors that induce traffic crashes, resulting in significant loss of life and property. A dilemma zone is a circumstance near signalized intersections where drivers hesitate when making decisions related to their driving behaviors. Therefore, the dilemma zone has been identified as an area with high crash potential. This article utilizes a logit-based Bayesian network (BN) hybrid approach to investigate drivers' decision patterns in a dilemma zone with phone use, based on experimental data from driving simulations from the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS). Using a logit regression model, five variables were found to be significant in predicting drivers' decisions in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks: older drivers (50–60 years old), yellow signal length, time to stop line, handheld phone tasks, and driver gender. The identified significant variables were then used to train a BN model to predict drivers' decisions at a dilemma zone and examine probabilistic impacts of these variables on drivers' decisions. The analysis results indicate that the trained BN model was effective in driver decision prediction and variable influence extraction. It was found that older drivers, a short yellow signal, a short time to stop line, nonhandheld phone tasks, and female drivers are factors that tend to result in drivers proceeding through intersections in a dilemma zone with phone use distraction. These research findings provide insight in understanding driver behavior patterns in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks.     

A list of accident scenarios for three legs skewed intersections

The term ‘scenario’ is used in the safety field to designate a prototype or a model of an accident process characterised by chains of facts, actions, causal relations and consequences in terms of damage to people and property. The prototypical scenarios, properly realized, provide a basis on which to consider the action to be taken, but also a concrete backup for accident information for use in information campaigns or training. The objective of this study is to define the prototypical accident scenarios for a particular configuration of road intersection: the skewed intersection. Limited sight distance at skewed intersections leads to safety issues. A non-skewed intersection provides the best operating conditions as drivers can easily sense the direction in which they are travelling, estimate the speeds of the opposing traffic and smoothly complete a maneuver in shorter time. In skewed intersections, instead, the ability of drivers to recognize any conflicting vehicles diminishes in comparison to right-angle intersections. The logical-deductive approach used in this paper for the determination of accident scenarios is based on an analysis of a large database of incidents, which occurred on several roads in eastern Sicily on 35 skewed intersections at three-legs. The skew angle of the minor leg of all the intersections studied is between 15° and 20°. This research allowed to develop accident scenarios related to particular configurations of intersections, compatible with the Italian rules. Prototypical scenarios are constructed using samples of accidents occurring on a particular type of study area, especially when they are based on files from in-depth investigations. The method used is an inductive approach, based on an examination of each case, grouping together similar cases and building a prototypical scenario using this case grouping. From the in-depth analysis of database accidents 9 prototypical accident scenarios have been identified for the skewed intersections.     

基于岩溶分布分析的突水风险评估模型研究

为实现岩溶突水风险评估的全过程动态修正与管理,一以岩溶发育分布规律为基础,采用半定量分析方法,估计溶洞与隧道在剖面图中的相对位置距离值,二将防突水岩层安全厚度的预测划分为初步估算、二次估计和动态测算3个阶段,每个阶段均采用有效的修正方式,不断获取更加准确且适用的防突岩层安全厚度预测数值。然后,综合考虑防突岩层安全厚度以及爆破开挖扰动深度影响,提出岩溶突水风险概率等级评价标准;通过划分突水量和溶腔高水头压强的等级,提出岩溶突水风险后果等级评价标准;并以二者为基础构建岩溶突水风险等级评估矩阵。最终,构建基于岩溶分布态势与防突岩层厚度的岩溶突水风险评估模型。通过具体工程实例检验,理论结果与实际情况相对比,验证所构建岩溶突水风险评估模型的合理性与可行性。     

基于3D GIS的地铁施工安全风险远程网络系统

为了进一步提高地铁施工现场安全精细化智能管理水平,结合地铁施工现场实际,提出应当建设地铁施工安全风险远程网络系统。分析该系统功能需求,系统应实现人员、机械设备、环境、监测等信息的管理功能,以及不安全行为与状态评判、冲突风险分析、特殊天气风险分析、预测预警、隐患辨识与管理等功能。经分析,得出系统宜采用3D GIS技术和空间数据库技术。设计系统总体结构,探讨各项功能的实现方法,与现有可视化监控系统相比,其功能进一步拓展,更加智能化、集成化、可视化。     

雾天高速公路交通安全风险评估

以驾驶模拟器作为数据采集平台,采集雾天高速公路不同能见度车辆的车头时距数据,对车头时距分区间统计,不做任何假设,克服了仅以天气等级或是车速和能见度作为风险评估的指标、行车安全等级以仿真得到的曲线图来定性判定的缺点。选取能见度和车头时距作为指标,对雾天高速公路的交通安全进行了风险评估。运用 Fisher 最优分割编写 Matlab 程序。将风险分为4级,以车头时距出现的概率结合损失量的大小确定风险分级标准。采用 K 近邻非参数对风险进行预测,训练集及验证集的分类误差均为0.7%,验证该模型具有有效性。     

基于环境风险控制的危险废物选址-路径问题研究

为降低回收处理危险废物的环境危害,提出了基于环境风险控制的危险废物选址-路径问题,全面地评估了危险废物回收管理的环境风险.根据环境承载力的理论,设计了环境风险的度量方法.考虑废物残余的危险性、危险废物类型和加工技术种类的多样性、危险废物和加工技术的相容性,建立了成本最小化和环境风险最小化的0-1混合整数线性规划模型.针对双目标选址-路径模型的复杂性特点,设计了多阶段聚类遗传算法.以重庆危险废物物流管理为例,验证了模型和算法的有效性.结果表明:模型和算法能够为实际管理提供合理的选址-路径优化方案,且在两个不同对比条件下,相较于已有的模型,基于环境风险控制的优化方案能够分别降低33.85％和18.16％的总成本.     

受地铁工程影响建筑物安全风险等级评定研究

受地铁工程影响的周边建(构)筑物,其安全风险影响因素多,使得定量分析安全风险分析十分困难。从工程应用角度出发,结合多年风险评估经验,提出一种较合理的安全风险等级评估方法。该方法对建筑物的安全风险等级各影响因素进行了剖析,制定了相应的评判准则,利用模糊层次分析法,对受影响建筑物安全风险等级进行半定量分析。工程实例验证结果,可确定基坑/隧道工程本体的风险等级及建筑物自身的风险等级大小,确保了受地铁工程影响的周边建筑物的安全。