桥梁建设项目总承包企业的风险及防范

针对我国桥梁建设项目总承包企业的风险进行研究。应用定性分析的方法,根据桥梁建设项目本身的特点以及总承包企业的业务范围,总结了桥梁建设项目中总承包企业的各种风险,最后提出了桥梁建设项目总承包企业的风险防范策略。     

一种改进的Jakes’信道模型及仿真

由于无线通信环境中存在的诸多不确定因素以及其在现代无线通信系统中的重要作用，合理的无线信道成为通信系统仿真研究的重要目的。确立信道仿真模型的目的就是为了尽可能的得到实际信道的统计特性，该文针对Jakes提出的信道模型，通过仿真来分析其局限性，并参考其中的谐波叠加（sum of sinusoids，SOS）法，来建立一种采用了随机分支增益、随机初始相位和有条件的随机多普勒频率改进的信道模型。     

经验过程的一般加权大数定律

研究了经验过程中加权系数具有某些较弱性质的加权和收敛问题.利用经验过程中已有的几个概率不等式与一般加权和的对称化不等式,得到了经验过程中的独立同分布随机元序列的这类加权和的强、弱大数定律成立的充分条件(E‖f(X0)‖1/αG<∞).同时,对经验过程中的Cesaro大数定律和欧拉弱大数定律进行了推广.     

船上实施听力保护的技术要求及应用

船舶噪声对船员的听力损伤是众所周知的,甚至发生部分船员的永久性听力损失。国际海事组织第91届海安会通过了新的《船上噪声等级规则》,围绕实施噪声规则,分析了听力保护的技术要求和正确选用听力保护器的技术依据,探讨了佩戴听力保护器对语言交流和感受听觉信号造成的影响。强调必须开展听力损伤的风险评估,并对识别听力损伤的特殊风险因素提出了建议。     

基于船舶领域和MMG的最晚施舵点/CRI研究

提出了一种基于MMG和船舶领域的LSP计算模型,以及改进的空间碰撞危险度（space collision risk index,SCRI）/时间碰撞危险度（time collision risk index,TCRI）模型,并进行了计算机仿真.结果表明：水动力模型精度可满足研究与实践要求;基于二分法的LSP模型能快速、可靠收敛;LSP和SCRI/TCRI模型更符合海员通常做法和避碰规则的公认理解.     

Examining the influence of firm performance on business risk-taking and the mediation effect of scale of operations in the container terminal industry

Container shipping and its related service sectors help accelerate globalization of the world economy. This industry has been experiencing rapid growth, prompting container terminal operators to increase their handling capacity in response. Providing container terminal services requires substantial capital investment in physical assets such as cargo handling facilities and information systems. On the other hand, operating container terminals is a long-term investment that typically spans several business cycles. Hence prudent asset management using appropriate tools is critical for container terminal operators to sustain their businesses. Generally, due to risk-adverseness, investors are unwilling to take more risk in their investment unless they can reap a higher return. Contrary to this argument, this study finds no direct influence of better firm performance as a proxy of higher return on business risk-taking by container terminal operators. Instead, scale of operations is positively associated with business risk-taking, suggesting that container terminal operators with a larger scale of operations are willing to take more business risk.     

A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character. The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision problem of determining the most attractive alternative for a new fixed link between Denmark and Sweden – the so-called HH-connection. Applying the framework to the case study made it possible to address the decision problem from an economic, a strategic, and a sustainable point of view simultaneously. The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.     

Design and evaluation of an integrated inventory and transportation system

This paper proposes the adoption of an integrated inventory and transportation system (IITS) to minimize the total costs of inventory and transportation. A non-linear programing is developed by analyzing transportation and inventory costs with one supplier and many retailers in the distribution environment. The paper compares the proposed model with the traditional approach in computing total costs with numerical data. The results indicate that the total costs can be optimized by adopting integrated programing rather than the traditional approach, along with achieving improved customer service levels. In particular, sensitivity analysis is applied to determine the performance of the IITS under various transportation costs, holding costs and shortage costs. It shows that the transportation cost per unit is most sensitive in the proposed model. In this situation, the IITS is more effective for cost saving when set-up cost, holding and shortage costs are high, but is less effective for situations involving high per-unit transportation costs.     

基于信息衰减的无源干扰作战效能研究

针对箔条干扰云团的作战效能问题，从信息衰减的角度出发，建立了基于雷达最大作用距离的衰减模型和基于发现概率的效费比模型，通过仿真实例验证了箔条走廊密度对雷达最大作用距离的定量关系，提出了箔条走廊干扰取得最佳效费比的方法，结果表明，合理设计箔条走廊密度和抛撒箔条数量，可以取得最佳的效费比，对箔条的实际应用有很强的实用价值。     

重庆水下立交隧道施工期风险分析

隧道及地下工程建设面临着大而多的风险,尤其是越江隧道的建设更为突出。因此隧道工程项目风险管理也越来越受到工程建设领域的关注。以规划中的重庆两江隧道为依托,采用风险分析方法中常用的专家打分法,对该工程采用钻爆法可能遇到的风险因素实施风险分析与评估,并给出了相应的处置措施。希望能对该工程以及类似工程的实施提供一些参考。