三次指数平滑法在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究

以某港口近15年的货物吞吐量作为原始数据,建立三次指数平滑法预测模型,利用VB语言编写计算机程序,运行求出最佳平滑系数,输入预测年份得到相应的吞吐量预测结果。     

厚层地下冰地段桥梁钻孔灌注桩基础试验研究综述

综合近 3 0年来国内工程冻土学界对多年冻土地区 ,尤其是青藏高原多年冻土区桥梁桩基研究的成果 ,评述冻土区桥梁灌注桩工作原理及承载力计算方法。结合现场桩基回冻过程地温场变化测试数据 ,对桩基承载力的影响因素、施工工艺提出建议。     

加筋地基极限承载力的极限平衡分析

从分析加筋地基的破坏模式:在加筋垫层底部形成剪切契体的密加筋地基破坏模式和在加筋垫层顶部形成剪切楔体的疏加筋地基破坏模式入手,采用极限平衡分析方法,分析了加筋地基的极限承载力。     

铁路客车轴承电腐蚀原因浅析

介绍了电腐蚀的分类与特征 ,通过对客车轴承故障特征进行分析 ,得到了提速客车轴承发生电腐蚀的原因和规律 ,提出了针对性的改进措施。     

A dynamic CSTT model for the effects of added nutrients in Loch Creran, a shallow fjord

Despite a tendency for the complexity of physical–biological models to increase, simple coupled models remain useful for some applications and can provide insights into crucial links between physical and biological processes. This argument is illustrated with an account of a simple 3-box model intended to help assess the capacity of fjords to assimilate nutrients from fish farms. The model, a dynamic version of the UK “Comprehensive Studies Task Team” (CSTT) steady-state model for eutrophication, was applied to Loch Creran (Scottish Western Highlands) and was implemented using Stella 8 and tested using historical data from 1975 (before the installation of a salmon farm) and field data collected in 2003, during the period of operation of the farm. The model's biological state variables are chlorophyll, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and it includes a simple run-off model to convert rainfall into river discharge. The physical processes involved in exchange between the loch and the adjacent waters of the Firth of Lorne were parameterised as a constant daily exchange rate.Between 1975 and 2003, local inputs of nutrient increased but, despite this, there was little apparent increase in nutrient concentrations in the loch, and observed chlorophyll concentrations decreased substantially. Model simulations of chlorophyll and DIN agreed well with observations in 1975, as did DIN simulations in 2003. However, simulated chlorophyll was overestimated in 2003.Some of the agreement between observations and simulations come from the use of observed boundary conditions to force the model. However, even when boundary conditions are subtracted from simulations and observations, the simulations in most cases retain a significant correlation with observations, demonstrating that the model's ‘interior’ processes do add to its ability to replicate conditions in the loch.     

重载铁路扩能研究

结合我国铁路的运输现状分析,货运列车需要提高牵引质量,重点对重载扩能方案、主要技术设备的研究,探索性地提出了开行重载单元煤运列车为主的双线电气化铁路的主要技术措施,并从运输组织与管理、桥梁等方面提出了相关建议。     

某船圆锥滚子轴承保持架裂纹失效分析

从机械构件失效痕迹学角度,对轴承保持架制造加工过程的宏观、微观痕迹特征进行了细致的观察与分析,结果表明,一次拉深成形过程中,在保持架内凹根部萌生了周向微裂纹,冲裁侧孔时由于凸模刃口过度磨损变钝致使冲裁力过大,引起了裂纹迅速扩展,导致了保证架开裂失效。     

上海轨道交通9号线一期工程现浇箱梁设计

介绍上海轨道交通9号线R401A高架区间现浇预应力混凝土简支箱梁设计,针对降噪、保证1/2钢束过支点以及箱梁连续施工等问题进行研究和探讨。     

便于润滑的牵引电动机新型油腔

感应电动机分解检测的周期由润滑油的使用寿命决定,通过改进润滑油腔的结构,可以延长润滑油的使用寿命,并可延长维修间隔.     

庐铜高速公路软基段新老路拼接处理方案设计

在对具体软基段新老路不同方案设计比选的基础上，根据实际情况，选用最佳方案予以实施，所得经验可供工程技术人员参考。