新型蚂蚁算法时间复杂性与鲁棒性研究

在研究新型蚂蚁算法理论的基础上，进一步对新型蚂蚁算法的时间复杂性与鲁棒性进行实际计算与研究，研究出蚂蚁移动Mlog2N（M为边数，N为结点数）步后，能找到QoSR的较优解，该算法的时间复杂性为O（MNlog2N）．对该算法的鲁棒性进行分析，证实了在关键结点失效后，该算法仍能找到新的QoSR，并发现随着关键结点失效增多，再找到新的QoSR的QOS参数值急剧下降．     

基于宽带接入服务器的分布式安全审计系统

用宽带接入服务器(BAS)作为分布式审计代理实现城域网(MAN)上的主动式安全审计系统．提出一种新的硬件包过滤机制(HPF)以适合系统的需要．BAS上的路由转发机制从“一次路由，多次交换”改为“一次审计，多次通过”．采用基于时间推理机的算法完成对UDP访问的审计．系统在试验网络中进行了测试，显示了很好的审计处理性能。     

大规模动态交通网络路径选择模型分析

从多方面分析了路段理想动态用户最优路径选择问题的变分不等式模型及求解算法的若干不适应性，论证了该模型并没有真正解决大规模化的问题。     

双向波分段水位演算模型在感潮河段中的应用

将感潮河段预报断面的洪水过程视作上游洪水波和下游潮水波双向独立传播后的叠加,应用分段水位演算方法模拟演算其传播过程,以此建立感潮河段的水位预报模型,该模型方法简单,物理概念清楚。选用长江大通站和镇江站作为上下边界,预报南京站的水位过程,取得了较好的效果。     

铁路行包装运方案编制方法的研究

根据铁路行包办理站行李车日装车计划编制流程,结合中国铁路行包运输实际情况,以车次准装区段限制、行包办理站办理限制、行包作业接续时间标准等为约束条件,给出基于行包发站和到站坐标位置网格图的行包运输径路快速算法,按照先行包直达、后1次中转和2次中转的行包装运方案编制思想,给出了多层据篮式分缀筛选的铁路行包办理站装运方案编制方法.运用结果验证了方法的有效性和实用性,能够提高铁路行包运输组织的水平和运输管理质量,并且实现了铁路行包运输装运方案和日装车计划的计算机编制.     

The Increasing Role of Latent Variables in Modelling Bicycle Mode Choice

The growing interest in promoting non-motorised active transport has led to an increase in the number of studies to identify the key variables associated with bicycle use, and especially those related to the bicycle mode choice problem. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the modelling literature on the choice of the bicycle for utilitarian purposes, and summarises and assesses the evolution of the explanatory variables and methodologies used. We review both the evolution of the incorporation of latent variables in bicycle mode choice models and the critical role they play. The chronological evolution of the studies is divided into three stages —initial, intermediate and late — according to the different ways of introducing attitudinal or perceptual indicators and latent variables into the models. Our review shows that the incorporation of latent variables in bicycle choice models has increased in the last decade, with a progressive use of more sophisticated methodologies until the arrival of complex models that explicitly and properly deal with psychological latent variables. In fact, with the use of hybrid choice models, latent variables have nowadays become the core of bicycle mode choice models. Based on our review, a set of questions is proposed as a uniform measurement scale to identify attitudes towards bicycling. Recommendations for future research are also presented.     

From user equilibrium to system optimum: a literature review on the role of travel information,bounded rationality and non-selfish behaviour at the network and individual levels

Travel information continues to receive significant attention in the field of travel behaviour research, as it is expected to help reduce congestion by directing the network state from a user equilibrium towards a more efficient system optimum. This literature review contributes to the existing literature in at least two ways. First, it considers both the individual perspective and the network perspective when assessing the potential effects of travel information, in contrast to earlier studies. Secondly, it highlights the role of bounded rationality as well as that of non-selfish behaviour in route choice and in response to information, complementing earlier reviews that mostly focused on bounded rationality only. It is concluded that information strategies should be tailor-made to an individual's level of rationality as well as level of selfishness in order to approach system-optimal conditions on the network level. Moreover, initial ideas and future research directions are provided for assessing the potential of travel information in order to improve network efficiency of existing road networks.     

Strategic evacuation planning with pedestrian guidance and bus routing: a mixed integer programming model and heuristic solution

This paper presents a mathematical model to plan emergencies in a densely populated urban zone where a certain numbers of pedestrians depend on transit for evacuation. The proposed model features an integrated operational framework, which simultaneously guides evacuees through urban streets and crosswalks (referred to as “the pedestrian network”) to designated pickup points (e.g., bus stops), and routes a fleet of buses at different depots to those pick‐up points and transports evacuees to their destinations or safe places. In this level, the buses are routed through the so‐called “vehicular network.” An integrated mixed integer linear program that can effectively take into account the interactions between the aforementioned two networks is formulated to find the maximal evacuation efficiency in two networks. Because the large instances of the proposed model are mathematically difficult to solve to optimality, a two‐stage heuristic is developed to solve larger instances of the model. Results from hundreds of numerical examples analysis indicate that proposed heuristic works well in providing (near) optimal or feasibly good solutions for medium‐scale to large‐scale instances that may arise in real transit‐based evacuation situations in a much shorter amount of computational time compared with cplex (can find optimal/feasible solutions for only five instances within 3 hours of running). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

应急交通疏散研究现状与展望

为有序实施交通组织,提高应急疏散效率,分析了飓风、洪水等能预警、观望和应对的自然灾害的特性,研究了国内外突发事件应急疏散的机理、交通组织方法与交通仿真技术应用,结合北京2008奥林匹克运动会应急疏散预案制定的实际,确定了适合中国国情和交通运输环境条件的应急疏散规划与管理研究方向,并建立相应的方法体系。研究结果表明:中国交通疏散方式应以公共汽车为主,并需从完善疏散规划方法体系,整合路径选择、交通控制以及疏散时间计算等交通关键技术着手,提高交通疏散效率和组织管理水平,通过交通仿真及ITS技术构建应急交通疏散决策与评价支持系统。     

基于多源预报的热带气旋危险区域的确定方法

为了提高热带气旋信息的完整性与准确性,分析了目前确定热带气旋中心周围危险区域的方法,提出了基于多源预报的热带气旋中心周围危险区域的确定方法。根据中、日、美三国对热带气旋中心位置的预报结果,求出预报的离散度,由预报位置与平均误差的关系,得出热带气旋90%落入概率的概率圆范围,然后将大风浪半径套在此概率圆的外面,可得到充分考虑多家热带气旋预报结果的热带气旋中心周围大风浪危险区域。可见,此方法提高了热带气旋预报圆的落入概率,有力保障了船舶绕避热带气旋的安全性。