A planning tool for evaluating vehicles miles travelled and traffic safety forecasts of growth management scenarios: A case study of Baton Rouge and New Orleans

This study describes an adaptable planning tool that examines potential change in vehicle miles travelled (VMT) growth and corresponding traffic safety outcomes in two urbanized areas, Baton Rouge and New Orleans, based on built environment, economic and demographic variables. This model is employed to demonstrate one aspect of the potential benefits of growth management policy implementation aimed at curbing VMT growth, and to establish targets with which to measure the effectiveness of those policies through a forecasting approach. The primary objective of this research is to demonstrate the need to break with current trends in order to achieve future goals, and to identify specific policy targets for fuel prices, population density, and transit service within the two study regions. Models indicate based on medium growth scenarios, Baton Rouge will experience a 9 percent increase in VMTs and New Orleans will experience 10 percent growth. This translates to corresponding increases in crashes, injuries and fatalities. The paper provides forecasts for planners and engineers to consider an alternative future, based on desired goals to reduce VMTs and therefore improve safety outcomes. A constrained-forecast model shows a cap on VMTs and crash rates is achievable through policy that increases fuel prices, population density and annual transit passenger miles per capita at reasonable levels through a growth management approach.     

高速公路山岭隧道设计阶段安全风险评估

通过定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,利用专家分析法和层次分析法研究各风险控制因素与权值.从技术角度考虑设计方案中各种不确定因素对后续施工及运营造成的不利影响,并得出相关结论,对于指导实际工作有一定的意义.     

Point-to-point speed enforcement systems: Speed limits design criteria and analysis of drivers’ compliance

Point-to-point (P2P) speed enforcement is a relatively new approach to traffic law enforcement. Its technology allows vehicles whose average speed exceeds the speed limit over the controlled section to be fined. It therefore encourages compliance over distances longer than those where spot enforcement policies have been in place.In this paper, a procedure for consistently setting speed limits with such enforcement systems is proposed. Such a method has been applied to design the speed limits on two motorways in the district of Naples, Italy, where P2P enforcement systems became operational in 2009 and 2010. The speed limits, which were set using the Italian geometric design standard to assess vehicle stability and stopping sight distance, have been compared with those provided by using well-known international standards.The impact of the newly designed speed limits and of the P2P enforcement system on drivers’ speeding behaviour has been quantified for each highway section and vehicle type. In fact, accurate measurements of the average travel speeds of each vehicle crossing the enforced sections, before and after the activation of the system, were available. The migration from the old speed limits with spot speed enforcement to the new approach resulted in a notable increase in drivers’ compliance to the speed limits with a remarkable decrease in both the average of individual speeds and in their standard deviation.In addition, the analysis of 3 years of data shows that a gradual adaptation of drivers’ behaviour to the system took place. In particular, a decreasing compliance to the speed limits points to a non-optimal system management. Finally, the results of a revealed preference survey allowed us to make a behavioural interpretation regarding the significantly different impacts measured on the two motorways.     

基于文本挖掘的地铁施工安全风险事故致险因素分析

地铁工程项目是典型的高风险大型复杂项目,施工安全风险事故多发且引发因素众多。为明确施工过程中存在的致险因素,为安全风险事故的预控提供依据,选取2002—2015年国内151例地铁施工安全风险事故报告,借助R语言和文本挖掘的方法,分别对事故报告进行分词处理、特征项选择、向量空间模型构建、共现规律识别,并利用词云和网络结构图等方法可视化文本挖掘结果;从中发现地铁施工安全风险事故的6项关键致险因素和23项一般致险因素,并以关键致险因素为基础构建致险因素集合,为地铁施工安全风险事故的预控提供参考。     

CCS水电站引水隧洞双护盾TBM施工围岩分类研究

为了对双护盾TBM隧洞施工中的围岩进行分类,以厄瓜多尔CCS水电站引水隧洞为例,参考RMR围岩分类方法,通过伸缩护盾的间隙和刀盘的空隙对洞壁和掌子面围岩进行观测,结合岩渣及掘进参数,获取岩石的质量指标RQD、节理间距和节理性状等信息。通过综合分析,选取岩石的回弹值、围岩的完整性、岩石的质量指标RQD、刀盘推力、刀盘扭矩、片状岩渣含量和地下水渗流量作为围岩分类的指标,然后对7个指标分别赋值,建立围岩的分类标准,并通过求和的方法进行综合围岩分类。分类结果表明:选取的7个指标可以克服双护盾TBM施工时无法对围岩进行全面地质素描的困难,可以满足TBM快速施工的需要,并且能较真实地反映围岩的情况,分类结果可靠。     

基于SHEL和三角模糊数理论的地铁钻爆法施工安全评价方法研究

为合理应用决策数据中不同专家的背景知识,找出地铁施工过程中安全测评体系的关注重点,根据地铁施工的特点和SHEL安全模型理论,建立以人-软件(L-S)、人-硬件(L-H)、人-环境(L-E)和人-人(L-L)4个环节为基础的钻爆法地铁施工安全指标体系。请专家给出指标语义评价等级和指标权重语义评价等级,并根据其与三角模糊数的对应关系分别得出三角模糊数评价值。针对不同专家的重要性程度差异,提出基于三角模糊数的群一致性评价方法,得出专家综合权重,集结评价数据,最终得到安全评价结果。最后,对青岛地铁1号线过海段进行实例分析。结果表明,该方法可以解决群评价过程中专家个体权威与群体共识难以兼顾的问题,能够充分利用群决策中的原始评价信息,提高地铁施工安全水平评价的准确性。     

我国商业银行信息化建设研究综述

我国商业银行信息化建设已走过近20年的路程,在取得巨大业绩的同时也存在若干不足之处．文章在总结我国商业银行信息化建设经验的基础上,对其信息化建设的现状进行了深入的分析,同时指出了我国商业银行信息化建设的总体规划方向,以期大幅度提高我国商业银行的信息化建设绩效。     

高校图书馆的人力资源管理略论

文章分析了当前高校图书馆人力资源管理存在的问题,对加强人力资源管理的必要性提出了看法,并就加强人力资源管理的有效途径进行了探讨。     

水泥土掺石膏的室内试验研究

针对掺加石膏以及不加添加剂的水泥土,利用现场的淤泥质土作为养护环境,进行3种不同水泥的室内7、28和90d的无侧限抗压强度试验。室内试验研究结果表明：龄期是影响水泥土试块强度的主要因素之一;添加剂石膏在水泥掺量一定情况下,主要起到早强和减水的作用。     

浅谈工程设计对公路建设投资的影响和相应对策

通过工程设计对公路建设投资影响的分析,阐明了工程设计是影响建设投资的主要因素之一,并通过实例证明了合理选择设计方案和采用技术标准等办法是控制投资的一条有效途径,而合理选择设计方案和技术标准又受到各种因素的影响和限制,对影响合理选择设计方案的原因进行了具体分析,并就此提出了几点相应对策,供同行们参考.