件杂货码头装卸生产与物流仿真

针对件杂货码头不确定性因素多、装卸过程优化控制和规划设计评估困难等问题,分析件杂货码头生产物流的复杂性特征,归纳装卸过程的随机参量,提出件杂货码头概念模型和仿真模型的建立方法。通过案例研究分析,验证仿真分析方法的正确性,为件杂货码头运营管理和规划设计提供参考。     

基于近似熵和统计复杂度的交通流复杂性测度

为了定量描述交通流系统的复杂性,引入非线性动力学的近似熵和统计复杂度特征量,计算混沌区域Henon和Logistic序列、周期序列、白噪声序列的近似熵和统计复杂度,并通过计算5个实测交通流时间序列数据对其近似熵和统计复杂度进行了计算分析。结果表明:这2种特征量能够有效测度系统的随机性和非线性,可以解决复杂性刻画的"短序列、可比较"难题,适于实测交通流的复杂性测度;交通流系统随机性较强,带有非线性结构,可能产生混沌,应该综合使用多种复杂性测度方法。     

高速公路工程招标工作探讨

建筑工程招投标制度是实行由建设单位公开招标,通过竞争,选择质量高、信誉好、造价及施工方案合理的企业承担施工任务的制度。招标工作是工程建设成功与否的基础,文中对在招标工作中标段划分、招标的先后顺序、标价确定的合理性和合同文件制订的科学性等问题进行了深入探讨。     

交通网络最短路权矩阵的迭代算法

介绍了求解交通网络最短路权矩阵的3种迭代算法,从迭代思路、时间复杂度、程序可读性等方面进行了比较,指出各算法的异同点以及联系,最后通过一个具体网络模拟了各算法的迭代过程.     

Untangling process complexity in logistics delivery services with unpredictable service sequences: a mixed-method study of chemical tanker port calls

We explore the complexity issue relevant to a logistics service process characterized by unpredictable service stages and service sequences in the context of chemical tankers’ call in the Port of Houston. The operational dimensions of uncertainty and conflict surrounding process complexity are examined through a mixed-methods approach using both qualitative and quantitative data collected from the Port of Houston. We propose a taxonomy to classify several uncertainty and conflict factors emerged from our qualitative analysis, including structural conflict, structural uncertainty, infrastructural conflict, and infrastructural uncertainty. The case study findings are validated and triangulated by a quantitative analysis which quantifies the time and cost impacts of unproductive chemical tanker movement on port-call service performance. We contribute to the complexity theory by introducing four dimensions of process complexity to the stream of process-oriented logistics service research. These four complexity dimensions can be used by managers to untangle their process complexity. Our pseudo-service-stage based mapping technique will also be valuable for managers to visualize their service processes with unpredictable service sequences. Finally, we call for future research on synchronization across operational processes between service stages.     

Private tollroads in urban areas

Governments of all persuasions are increasingly seeking the participation of the private sector in the supply of transport facilities and services. Private sector participation in the financing, construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure is considered a serious option in a number of countries in the search for ways of providing much needed investment which would otherwise be deferred. This paper considers some economic and financial problems in the private sector provision of major road infrastructure within urban areas. The main issues are attaching prices (i.e. tolls) to the provision of the service, the value of government rights which are being given up either permanently or temporarily, and the identification required by the promoters of the cost of capital which is essential information in establishing the risk. Broader environmental and equity issues are not addressed. If the approach to establishing a private presence in a previously public supply context is handled properly from the outset, the benefits can be significant. Contrarily however, the prospects could be quite undesirable if badly managed, despite the presence of an extended public purse.requests for offprints     

An adaptive neural network-fuzzy linear regression approach for improved car ownership estimation and forecasting in complex and uncertain environments: the case of Iran

This paper applies a novel adaptive approach consisting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) to improve car ownership forecasting in complex, ambiguous, and uncertain environments. This integrated approach is applied to forecast car ownership in Iran from 1930 to 2007. In this study, the level of car ownership is viewed as the result of demographic, politico-social, and urban structure factors including average family size, total population density, urban population density, urbanization rate, gross national product per capita, gasoline price, and total road length. To capture the potential complexity, uncertainty, and linearity relation between the car ownership function and its determinants, ANN and FLR (including eight well-known FLR) approaches are applied to the collected data. Next, the preferred ANN is selected based on sensitivity analysis results for the test data while the preferred FLR is identified with regard to ANOVA and MAPE results. The results obtained from the performance comparison demonstrate the considerable superiority of the preferred ANN over the preferred FLR regarding the nonlinear and complex nature of the car ownership function in Iran. This is the first study that presents an ANN-FLR approach for car ownership forecasting capable of handling complexity and non-linearity, uncertainty, pre-processing, and post-processing.     

航空公司动态价格竞争复杂性与延迟反馈控制

为深入研究航空公司动态价格竞争的复杂性及延迟反馈控制方法的有效性, 综合运用有限理性决策理论与非线性动力学理论,构建航空公司动态价格竞争博弈模 型,分析航空公司复杂的动力学行为,研究针对系统变量、系统参数的两类延迟反馈控制 方法的有效性与差异性.研究结果表明,航空公司价格调整速度对模型的复杂性有显著影 响;选取合适的控制因子,两类延迟反馈控制方法都能对陷入混沌的动态价格竞争模型 实施有效地混沌控制;两类延迟反馈控制方法在控制因子取值范围、收敛速度等方面存 有显著差异;控制因子取值对系统的收敛速度呈规律性影响趋势.     

一种新的分区回溯算法

在传统回溯算法及其时间和空间复杂性的研究基础上,提出了一种通用混合回溯方法——基于分区的回溯算法,在空间和时间代价较小的情况下,它能找到全部解,并且通过N皇后问题进行了实验,获得了较好的结果,说明该算法是可行的和有效的。