An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters’ responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers’ behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief–desire–intention agent architecture.     

新型船舶运动控制平台及海上试验

研制出一艘以水动力学相似准则缩尺的无人驾驶遥控模型船，模型船装有PC／104为主控计算机的船舶控制器，模型船由岸上主PC机遥控，用Honeywell公司的HMR3000碰罗经测量航导，用差分GPS系统定位，自主控制和推进，该遥控篡自治船舶运动控制已经进行了两次海上试验并取得成功，本文介绍该平台的系统设计，控制系统硬件和软件和海上试验经。     

AutoLISP程序设计的若干问题

本文剖析了 AutoLISP 程序的结构特点,运行长大程序的措施和数据文件的组织等三个方面的问题.     

系统保证管理在成都地铁机电系统建设中的应用

系统保证管理在国外多个轨道交通项目中得到了成功应用。成都地铁立足于国内建设城市轨道交通项目的现状,结合自身实际,为更好地实现安全和效益的目标,在机电系统的建设过程中全面开展了系统保证管理。提出了系统保证管理的基本概念和主要工作内容;介绍了成都地铁1号线机电系统实施系统保证管理的工作进程。成都地铁1号线系统保证工作开展近2年来,取得了显著成果,为国内城市轨道交通行业引入系统保证管理、促进国内城市轨道交通行业发展起到了借鉴和推动作用。     

Reliability analysis of repairable systems using stochastic point processes

In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process(HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather thanremains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest methodto address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model toanalyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also usedin the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entirelife cycle of repairable systems.     

路段平均行程时间估计方法

为了有效利用线圈检测数据,精确估计路段平均行程时间,提出了一种路段平均行程时间估计方法。将路段平均行程时间分为平均行驶时间、平均排队时间和平均通过路口时间三部分。考虑线圈埋设的特点,通过估计平均行驶速度得到平均行驶时间。用分段时齐Poisson过程描述车辆驶入路段过程和驶离过程,用Markov排队模型描述车辆排队过程,用生灭过程描述排队车辆数,得到车辆排队模型,计算了路段有、无初始排队的平均排队时间。基于选取与路口相关的饱和流率和平均车长,计算了平均通过路口时间。计算结果表明:平均行程时间估计值与实测值的误差小于12%,说明路段平均行程时间估计方法可行。     

一致拥挤快速路交通系统稳定性分析

考虑快速路一致拥挤的前提下,通过选取适当的流一密关系式,建立快速路网络流模型。并在对快速路的第一段进行适当处理和考虑匝道排队的基础上,构造一个离散的线性系统。通过对此类型的离散系统进行稳定性分析,得到稳定的充分条件和最优控制器的设计方法,仿真实例表明该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Integrated evasive manoeuvre assist for collision mitigation with oncoming vehicles

Development and deployment of steering based collision avoidance systems are made difficult due to the complexity of dealing with oncoming vehicles during the evasive manoeuvre. A method to mitigate the collision risk with oncoming vehicles during such manoeuvres is presented in this work. A point mass analysis of such a scenario is first done to determine the importance of speed for mitigating the collision risk with the oncoming vehicle. A characteristic parameter was identified, which correlates well with the need to increase or decrease speed, in order to reduce the collision risk. This finding was then verified in experiments using a Volvo XC90 test vehicle. A closed-loop longitudinal acceleration controller for collision mitigation with oncoming vehicles is then presented. The longitudinal control is combined with yaw stability control using control allocation to form an integrated controller. Simulations in CarMaker using a validated XC90 vehicle model and the proposed controller showed consistent reductions in the collision risk with the oncoming vehicle.     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.     

先进电力电子技术在超高压输电网中的应用

简要介绍了先进电力电子技术在输配电中的应用,主要包括高压直流输电、柔性交流输电和定制电力技术三个方面.在叙述电力电子技术的发展和应用情况的基础上,重点阐述了由中国电力科学研究院自主集成的可控串补和静止无功补偿器成套设备的关键技术,强调了自主开发的重要性.