Travel demand estimation risk for high‐speed railway transport considering travel price competition

The Hokkaido Shinkansen (HS) bullet train line is under consideration to open in 2020. In this study, travel demand is estimated for the HS. Because some explanatory variables that are used for such estimation can have estimation errors, travel demand estimation risk is also calculated. In addition, because the HS can compete with airlines for modal share, the impacts of travel price competition (TPC) on the travel demand and the demand estimation risk are also estimated. In this study, the travel demand estimation risk is measured as the variance or the SD of the stochastic travel demand. The analysis reveals the following: the modal share of HS is 16% less when TPC is considered than when it is not considered; TPC causes the travel demand estimation risk to decrease; the probabilities of the HS operating at a deficit with and without consideration of TPC are calculated as 31.2% and 1.25%, respectively, and the increase in the mean consumer surplus accruing from the HS is calculated as JPY 47bn/year ($US588m/year) without TPC and as JPY 66bn/year ($US825m/year) with TPC. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Differences in air passengers’ buying behaviour: findings from Korean and Australian international passengers

Abstract

This paper investigates how air passengers’ expectations, ticket price, airline service quality, value, passenger satisfaction and airline image determine their buying behaviour. To test the conceptual frameworks, path analysis was applied to data collected from Korean and Australian international passengers to examine differences between these two groups. Further analyses were undertaken on different passenger segments between national and foreign airline passengers. The results of the path analysis reveal that air passengers’ buying behaviour differs significantly between Korean and Australian international passengers. Results also reveal that the determinants of air passengers’ buying behaviour differ by airlines.     

基于可变泊位容量的停车收费定价模型研究

在分析路内外停车泊位容量变化的基础上,分别以社会效益最大化为目标,财务盈利和满足社会需求为约束条件,建立了基于可变泊位容量的路内停车定价模型;以经济利润最大化为目标,采用平均成本定价法,建立了基于可变泊位容量的路外停车定价模型.针对模型,分别通过拉格朗日算法和平均值算法.以广州市和上海市停车场为例计算停车收费价格,证明模型的可靠性.     

客运专线基床底层改良土施工工艺及单价分析

着重介绍路堤基床以下石灰改良土填料（路拌改良土）的3种施工工艺以及影响改良土质量的主要因素及其控制参数。在对照分析了3种施工工艺的差异后，结合铁道部颁布的113号文，对改良土的单价进行分析，并就影响改良土单价的主要因素（石灰费用和土方运输费用），依据盈亏平衡原则，通过经济性比较，分析出石灰价格和石灰损耗量的临界点及改良土与AB级填料的经济运距临界点，为合理选择改良土施工方法和路基填料提供有益的参考。     

推行工程量清单计价环境下的施工合同管理

建设工程施工合同是乙双方在工程中的最高行为准则,清单计价模式后如何进行施工合同管理,避免纠纷,是建设主管部门、建设单位、施工单位必须加强重视的问题。     

工程项目施工成本中工料机单价的确定

工程项目施工成本中的工料机单价,要以实施性施工组织设计和实际施工数量为基础,遵循实事求是的原则,按照一定的程序,采用科学的方法来合理确定.只有合理确定此单价,才能使工程项目成本建立在真实、可靠的基础上;才能正确评价项目预期效益、实施内部承发包和考核项目经营效果.     

高油价对长江水上安全的影响

随着燃油成本的提高,航运的成本随着提高,这给航运的经营带来了巨大的压力,船舶在航行中采取违反航行规则来取得效益,这对长江水上安全带来了影响。     

大型工程项目低标价向高造价演变的机理分析

工程项目建设过程中,低标价中标而最终导致高造价的现象有其内在的必然性.中标机会大小影响报价变动.低价中标预示业主取得了“超额利益”,导致建设期间业主与承包商存在利益上的先对抗、后妥协的“对抗—妥协”关系.承包商进场后,业主风险损失系数大而趋向于“妥协”,以利项目按时完工.“对抗—妥协”关系存在动态平衡点,但双方在争夺利益的过程中均付出了代价,资源被无形消耗.动态平衡点的计算也存在陷阱,用错也使造价大幅提升.本文运用数学模型分析了其中的机理,并提出了防范和改变这种局面的建议,可应用于大型工程项目管理.     

第三方物流服务提供者定价方法研究

随着企业认识到现在物流代表着第三利润源泉,物流外包逐渐增加,第三方物流企业在国民经济中也就发挥着越来越重要的作用。需求的增加刺激了供给的进一步扩大,物流企业之间的竞争也逐渐激烈起来,以此为背景,本文主要讨论了面临竞争激烈的市场环境,第三方物流企业需要如何选择有效的定价策略。     

材料价格上涨对公路造价影响的预测和对策

以2个在建高速公路项目为例,从分析不同的工程类型中工程主要材料费所占比重,反映材料价格变化对公路造价的影响情况.同时,对近期出现的钢材、水泥价格持续上涨的解决措施进行了阐述.