An improved headway-based holding strategy for bus transit

Abstract

This paper presents an improved headway-based holding strategy integrating bus transit travel and dwelling time prediction. A support vector machine-based (SVM) model is developed to predict the baseline travel and dwell times of buses based on recent data. In order to reduce prediction errors, an adaptive algorithm is used together with real-time bus operational information and estimated baseline times from SVM models. The objective of the improved holding strategy is to minimize the total waiting times of passengers at the current stop and at successive stops. Considering the time-varying features of bus running, a ‘forgetting factor’ is introduced to weight the most recent data and reduce the disturbance from unexpected incidents. Finally, the improved holding strategy proposed in this study is illustrated using the microscopic simulation model Paramics and some conclusions are drawn.     

砂性地层地铁暗挖施工地表沉降预测方法

通过对地层沉降机理和地表沉降空间分布形态的分析,对Peck公式进行了修正,把隧道中轴线处地表沉降z中和地表沉降槽的宽度系数i都拓展成y的函数,得到了适用于砂性地层地铁暗挖施工开挖进程的三维空间地表沉降预测方法。根据沈阳地铁实际工程地表沉降实测值反推出预测公式中z中(y)和i(y)的具体形式及其他系数值,并对不同断面横向地表沉降计算值和实测值进行对比分析,结果证明该预测方法可应用于工程实践。     

Predicting duration of traffic accidents based on cost-sensitive Bayesian network and weighted K-nearest neighbor

Abstract

With the development of urbanization, road congestion has become increasingly serious, and an important cause is the traffic accidents. In this article, we aim to predict the duration of traffic accidents given a set of historical records and the feature of the new accident, which can be collected from the vehicle sensors, in order to help guide the congestion and restore the road. Existing work on predicting the duration of accidents seldom consider the imbalance of samples, the interaction of attributes, and the cost-sensitive problem sufficiently. Therefore, in this article, we propose a two-level model, which consists of a cost-sensitive Bayesian network and a weighted K-nearest neighbor model, to predict the duration of accidents. After data preprocessing and variance analysis on the traffic accident data of Xiamen City in 2015, the model uses some important discrete attributes for classification, and then utilizes the remaining attributes for K-nearest neighbor regression prediction. The experiment results show that our proposed approach to predicting the duration of accidents achieves higher accuracy compared with classical models.     

基于远程监测的车辙等效温度预估模型建立

针对沥青路面车辙等效温度预估模型建立过程中,路面温度预估模型无法快速准确地测定不同时刻各深度结构层的实时温度数据和计算过程复杂等问题,通过埋设温度传感器,连接实时温度监测系统,采集不同时刻各深度结构层的实时温度。同时通过自行开发的计算程序,建立车辙等效温度预估模型。研究结果表明,远程监测系统可即时建立车辙等效温度预估模型,为公路养护的及时性和制定长周期养护规划提供可靠基础。     

建立船舶预告登记制度的探讨

SUN预告登记制度起源于早期普鲁士法所规定的异议登记,后来为德国、瑞士、日本等国以及中国台湾地区民法所接受,成为民法中一项重要的物权制度。它将物权法理论和债权法理论结合起来,对保障当事人的权利、保护交易安全、维护市场信用具有重要作用。十届全国人大五次会议通过的《中华人民共和国物权法》对预告登记制度作了相关规定。文中结合物权法中预告登记制度的基本原理,针对目前船舶登记工作中尚未制定该制度的欠缺,对船舶登记工作中建立预告登记制度进行了初步的探讨。     

Stated preference analysis of travel choices: the state of practice

Stated preference (SP) methods are widely used in travel behaviour research and practice to identify behavioural responses to choice situations which are not revealed in the market, and where the attribute levels offered by existing choices are modified to such an extent that the reliability of revealed preference models as predictors of response is brought into question. This paper reviews recent developments in the application of SP models which add to their growing relevance in demand modelling and prediction. The main themes addressed include a comparative assessment of choice models and preference models, the importance of scaling when pooling different types of data, especially the appeal of SP data as an enriching strategy in the context of revealed preference models, hierarchical designs when the number of attributes make single experiments too complex for the respondent, and ways of accommodating dynamics (i.e. serial correlation and state dependence) in SP modelling.An earlier modified version was presented as the keynote address to the 1993 National Conference on Tourism Research, held at the University of Sydney, 19 March 1993. The comments of Jordan Louviere, Lester Johnson, Paul Hooper, W.G. Waters II and Mark Bradley are appreciated.     

高速公路交通事故数据分析方法研究

高速公路交通事故数据对管理部门提升道路交通安全具有重要意义。为研究贵州省某两条高速公路历史交通事故数据分布规律与事故发展趋势,首先利用邻近度与关联性分析方法,完善事故数据;然后分析道路特征对交通安全的影响,划分连续下坡路段、隧道路段单元范围;最后对路段单元进一步划分为区块,建立不同区块范围内的事故概率与区块位置的预测模型,其中连续下坡路段后半段符合线形关系,隧道进出口段符合二次函数关系,并根据事故分布特征提出改善方案,进而辅助管理者掌握不同特征路段未来可能发生交通事故的路段范围以及改善的优先级。     

不同错台量对复合型密封垫影响及长期防水预测

为研究盾构隧道管片接缝不同错台量对复合型密封垫防水性能的影响,从复合型密封垫遇水膨胀橡胶块二次防水效应出发,在不同错台量条件下分别从密封垫-密封垫接触面和密封垫-密封槽接触面2 个方面分析复合型密封垫防水渐进失效机制,同时基于阿累尼乌斯方程的“P-T-t”三元模型对复合型密封垫长期防水性能进行预测。研究结果表明: 1) 复合型密封垫遇水膨胀橡胶块发生膨胀作用,能够有效增加密封垫间接触面应力,并且密封垫渗漏处主要出现在密封垫与密封垫接触面上; 2) 对于密封垫与密封槽接触面防水能力,随着接缝错台量的增大,对遇水膨胀橡胶块膨胀作用的影响显著; 3) 管片接缝间的张开量和错台量对复合型密封垫的长期防水性能影响显著,并且复合型密封垫长期防水性能随着老化时间先急剧下降后达到平稳状态。     

基于人工神经网络的公路黄土高边坡稳定性预测研究

文章介绍了BP网络模型的计算过程并对其性能进行了改进。在此基础上,分析了影响黄土高边坡稳定性的因素,包括土体的容重γ、粘聚力c、内摩擦角φ、孔隙水压力比γu,地震烈度,边坡坡比和边坡高度H。在对西部四省地区上百个黄土高边坡稳定性进行调查的基础上,结合典型的实测数据,应用改进的神经网络BP模型对其进行预测和评价研究。结果表明:改进的BP模型具有收敛快、数据输入方便等优点,预测结果相对传统方法来说更准确、可靠,具有一定的推广的价值。     

Enhancing grey prediction fuzzy controller for active suspension systems

A grey prediction fuzzy controller (GPFC) was proposed to control an active suspension system and evaluate its control performance. The GPFC employed the grey prediction algorithm to predict the position output error of the sprung mass and the error change as input variables of the traditional fuzzy controller (TFC) in controlling the suspension system to suppress the vibration and the acceleration amplitudes of the sprung mass for improving the ride comfort of the TFC used; however, the TFC or GPFC was employed to control the suspension system, resulting in a large tire deflection so that the road-holding ability in the vehicle becomes worse than with the original passive control strategy. To overcome the problem, this work developed an enhancing grey prediction fuzzy controller (EGPFC) that not only had the original GPFC property but also introduced the tire dynamic effect into the controller design, also using the grey prediction algorithm to predict the next tire deflection error and the error change as input variables of another TFC, to control the suspension system for enhancing the road-holding capability of the vehicle. The EGPFC has better control performances in suppressing the vibration and the acceleration amplitudes of the sprung mass to improve the ride quality and in reducing the tire deflection to enhance the road-holding ability of the vehicle, than both TFC and GPFC, as confirmed by experimental results.