495B增压柴油机曲轴疲劳可靠性预测

进气增压是柴油机节能与强化的重要手段之一,增压后柴油机最大燃烧压力增加使得曲轴等关键受力零件工作条件恶化,必须进行强度校核分析。在有限元分析的基础上,通过概率统计的方法对不同的曲轴材料工艺等进行分析对比,得到既经济又可靠的结果。     

湘桂运河建设对长江航运物流格局的影响研究

为做好湘桂运河建设前期论证工作,推动运河连通工程加快实施,从物流通道的视角,以运河前期规划方案和大量调研成果为基础,采用定性分析和定量预测的方法,从内河水运、综合交通、国际物流等层面剖析运河在交通运输格局中的重要地位;从航道网络、港口枢纽、运输组织和货物流向等方面分析运河对长江航运物流格局的影响,预测2035和2050年长江航运向运河通道的货运分流量。     

基于机场子区划分的机场网络交通拥挤传播预测

为了预测机场进离场交通的拥挤态势,本文从机场网络的角度进行研究.首先针对交通拥挤形成的动态过程,建立了基于出入流率的交通拥挤的定义及其度量;接着,引入多维标度法对机场之间的交通相关性进行定量分析,划分机场子区,以降低网络分析的复杂度及解空间维数;然后,构建了基于Elman神经网络实现机场子区内多个相关机场的交通拥挤传播预测方法;最后,基于美国机场的实际航班数据对机场网络拥挤传播预测方法进行验证.验证结果表明,预测结果的平均绝对百分比误差和平均绝对偏差较小,明显优于对比算法.     

Forecasting short-term subway passenger flow under special events scenarios using multiscale radial basis function networks

Reliable and accurate short-term subway passenger flow prediction is important for passengers, transit operators, and public agencies. Traditional studies focus on regular demand forecasting and have inherent disadvantages in predicting passenger flows under special events scenarios. These special events may have a disruptive impact on public transportation systems, and should thus be given more attention for proactive management and timely information dissemination. This study proposes a novel multiscale radial basis function (MSRBF) network for forecasting the irregular fluctuation of subway passenger flows. This model is simplified using a matching pursuit orthogonal least squares algorithm through the selection of significant model terms to produce a parsimonious MSRBF model. Combined with transit smart card data, this approach not only exhibits superior predictive performance over prevailing computational intelligence methods for non-regular demand forecasting at least 30 min prior, but also leverages network knowledge to enhance prediction capability and pinpoint vulnerable subway stations for crowd control measures. Three empirical studies with special events in Beijing demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can effectively predict the emergence of passenger flow bursts.     

Short-term traffic flow prediction using time-varying Vasicek model

This paper provides a two-step approach based on the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to improve short-term prediction. In the first step of this framework, a Hull-White (HW) model is applied to obtain a baseline prediction model from previous days. Then, the extended Vasicek model (EV) is employed for modeling the difference between observations and baseline predictions (residuals) during an individual day. The parameters of this time-varying model are estimated at each sample using the residuals in a short duration of time before the time point of prediction; so it provides a real time prediction. The extracted model recovers the valuable local variation information during each day. The performance of our method in comparison with other methods improves significantly in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean relative error (MRE) for real data from Tehran’s highways and the open-access PeMS database. We also demonstrate that the proposed model is appropriate for imputing the missing data in traffic dataset and it is more efficient than the probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) and k-Nearest neighbors (k-NN) methods.     

大型油船航速估算方法

对现有的船舶航速估算方法分析比较，提出了大型油船的航速估算方法。其中有效功率估算是根据上海船研所肥大船系试验图谱和实船试验资料经分析、修正得出，与荷兰Ｈｏｌｔｒｏｐ法、大连造船厂法比较，本文方法均方差最小，估算值与试验值最接近；自航因子估算以ＳＳＰＡ大油轮系列自航试验资料为基础，用上海船研所大量肥大船模型自航试验数据修正得出。     

铁路机车风笛声学参数的确定

根据我国主型机车实际采用的风笛声学性能测试数据 ,参考国际铁路联盟 (UIC)的有关标准 ,初步确定了铁路噪声预测中采用的风笛声学参数值 ,其中包括倍频带声压级和指向性参数值 ,可应用于铁路建设项目环境影响评价的铁路噪声预测计算模式。     

计量经济模型预测运量的探讨

根据地量经济学原理及运输业的特点，提出二步预测运量的思路。首先，根据投入产出原理，投入决定国民经济发展水平，又根据运输业的特点，国民经济发展水平决定运量水平，按此思路，能找出运量发生的直接根源，用直接影响运量发生的因素，通过二步计量经济模型，来预测运量。文章根据某省的实际资料，建立了模型，并对模型进行了分析。     

用升力面理论预报螺旋桨性能和桨叶表面压力分布

本文提出了一个依据升力面理论预报螺旋桨在不同工况下的性能和桨叶表面压力分布的计算方法。该方法计入了桨叶侧斜、纵斜、径向变螺距和径向变伴流等因素的影响。 在附着涡和自由涡的分析中引入模式函数,导出桨叶区内变密度自由涡的涡强分布,从而得到了表达整个涡系的涡强分布公式,并以此计算由整个涡系产生的诱导速度。这就使得有可能用较短的计算时间和较少的计算机存储量以较高的精度求解一个如此复杂的问题。 作者已经提供了一个理论计算程序。一些计算实例与实验结果的比较表明本文所提供的方法是令人满意的。     

小型机械开关抖动时间的测定

本文提出了一种通过测量小型机械开关抖动时间,对开关故障进行预测的一种方法。