2010年世界船舶市场评述与展望

回顾了2010年世界船舶市场的发展,并对未来船舶市场进行了预测。随着世界经济的复苏,2010年航运市场出现反弹,虽然全年呈现震荡格局,但整体好于2009年,散货船、油船、集装箱船年平均运价均高于上年,特别是集装箱船年平均运价比上年高出一倍多。与此同时,三大船型建造市场出现轮动效应,上半年散货船引导造船市场,下半年行情有所下滑,油船订单则从第二季度开始增加,而沉寂许久的集装箱船建造市场在下半年也开始出现大量新订单。预计2011年的船舶市场将难以维持2010年的繁荣局面,但集装箱船建造市场和海工装备有望延续2010年下半年出现的良好市场行情。     

无信控路段人行横道处行人过街建模与仿真

为精细化描述无信控路段人行横道处行人过街决策及微观运动行为,本文在行人过街行为分析的基础上,基于战术层-操作层构建行人过街双层模型。其中,在战术层面,针对行人分步决策特性,利用二元Logistic回归模型构建路侧和路中行人过街决策模型;在操作层面,针对传统社会力模型在描述行人过街时表现出的局限性,引入行人主动避让力和人行横道对行人的作用力,构建行人过街微观运动模型。最后,通过AnyLogic仿真平台实现行人过街双层模型仿真,并根据实际数据和仿真结果分析模型有效性。结果表明：相较于路侧决策模型,行人性别、停车视距内的车辆数和行人距潜在冲突点的距离这3个因素对行人路中决策结果影响更显著,引入行人主动避让力和人行横道对行人作用力的改进社会力模型,能更好地反映无信控路段行人过街时的行为特征。无信控路段人行横道处行人过街行为仿真模型的有效建立,能为后续行人过街安全改善方案提供决策支持。     

就地冷再生技术在高速公路养护工程中的应用研究

就地冷再生技术具有施工便捷、污染小、旧料回收利用率高、节约成本等优势,在公路养护中得到了利用.以S49新扬高速为例,从适用条件、混合料设计、路用性能验证以及社会经济效益等方面,对就地冷再生技术进行系统研究,结果表明就地冷再生技术在高速公路养护工程中应用效果理想,可进行推广运用.     

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高速铁路为人们提供了一种高效的运输方式.本文借鉴弹性系数法的相关理论,首先运用广义费用函数测算样本中高铁开通前后两地区综合客运成本的变化,结合两地区高铁开通前后客运量的变化得到了运输成本弹性系数,用于衡量两地区对于高铁开通的迫切性程度,从而在另一个层面衡量高铁建设的可行性.然后根据运输经济学及新经济地理学的相关理论,从人口、距离、人均GDP差异、平均人均GDP和产业结构相似度5个维度对样本的运输成本弹性系数进行建模,运用神经网络的方法来拟合其对运输成本弹性系数的影响情况,并以此为依据来测算北京市和张家口市对即将开通的京张高铁的迫切性程度.     

Impacts of trade related sustainability strategies on freight transportation: Modelling framework and application for France

The circular and functional economies are being presented in the literature as potential strategies for future sustainable societies. In terms of the consequences for supply chains, they will promote a much more dispersed and diversified, local and network based usage of goods than the current economy, which is comparatively linear, concentrated, long distance oriented and scale economy based. A gap in the literature is the assessment of the effects of these systems on freight transport flows. In our paper, we present a first attempt at estimating this impact using freight transport scenario building and quantitative modelling. In order to translate the main parameters that characterize these systems into factors determining freight transportation volumes, we develop a framework based on a typology of goods categories describing functional and spatial proximity between producers and consumers. In order to simulate changes in the economy, we develop scenarios for the shifting of goods from one category to another and, additionally, include internalization policies that should guide their realization. We calculate the impacts on freight flows using a new interregional transport model for France that includes distribution chains and produces estimates of external costs of transport. Our results show that circular and functional economies could lead to a 2–5% reduction of air pollutant emissions and up to a 14–26% reduction if combined with the internalization of external costs. The scenario with ongoing mass production for differentiated demand is found to lead to a 5% increase of environmental impacts compared to the baseline.     

Managing corporate social responsibility strategies of airports: The case of Taiwan’s Taoyuan International Airport Corporation

Airports need to manage corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies for sustainable development. This paper develops a new structured approach for airports to evaluate, prioritize and categorize CSR strategies, using Taiwan’s Taoyuan International Airport Corporation (TIAC) as an example. Based on TIAC’s CSR-related activities, 18 CSR strategies grouped into 5 CSR goals (corporate governance and finance, green airport and environmental management, service quality and social relationship, employee and work environment management, and safety and security) are identified using the CSR value chain and diamond framework. The pairwise comparison method used in analytic hierarchy process and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method are used respectively to evaluate the relative importance, feasibility and achievability of these 18 strategies and to analyze their causal relationships via expert questionnaire surveys. A new method is developed to plan and manage the implementation of CSR strategies by incorporating the viewpoints of both internal and external stakeholders, thus reflecting the practical effects and strategic implications of the CSR implementation. The result suggests that TIAC’s CSR strategies in relation to airport safety and security, service quality and corporate governance are most significant and have a high implementation priority. This paper contributes to the airport industry and CSR research by proposing a proactive mechanism for quantitatively evaluating, prioritizing and categorizing CSR strategies.     

土木规划的规划环境与规划政策研究

研究目的：土木规划是以社会公共基础设施为对象，本着统筹、系统的思想，利用土木工程技术与系统科学方法进行的规划。但就我国目前土木规划领域的现状来看，无论是在“规划环境”方面还是“规划政策”方面，都存在着一定的问题。本文的目的在于通过对我国土木规划的规划环境与规划政策的研究，促进土木规划在我国的科学化、体系化发展。研究方法：本文聚焦于我国的交通基础设施，系统地整理和分析了我国土木规划的历史与现状，包括政府与市场的角色定位、规划体制、法律法规的情况，同时介绍了国外的经验，揭示了存在的问题。研究结果：提出我国要走科学的“土木规划”道路，在规划环境上应改革规划体制，完善立法，建立多层次的基础设施体系；在规划政策上应努力拓宽资金渠道，加强综合规划等。研究结论：揭示了在我国开展土木规划研究的重要性和必要性，土木规划相关研究的不断深入，必将促进我国的土木规划水平的提高。     

关于农村经济持续快速发展的思考

农村经济要能取得持续快速的发展,必须大力发展现代农业,用现代科学技术武装农业、振兴农业;要致力于多渠道多形式地尽快提高农业劳动者的素质和技能,以适应发展现代农业,建设社会主义新农村的需要.     

邓小平创新市场经济理论的方法论特征探析

邓小平对市场经济理论的创新有三个主要标志,即论证了社会主义和市场经济可以兼容,为中国的经济改革取向提供了理论前提；阐释了社会主义市场经济的开放性特征,为中国融入世界经济开辟了理论通道；提出了法制建设是发展社会主义市场经济的重要保障。邓小平创新市场经济理论的方法论特征表现为：彻底的唯物主义世界观；准确把握事物普遍联系和永恒发展的原理；高超地运用了辩证唯物主义的认识论及辨证运动原理。     

长衡客运专线速度目标值的选择

根据长衡客运专线所处位置和在路网中的作用,研究确定不同速度目标值采用的标准,以及确定长衡客运专线速度目标值应考虑的要素。