重大疫情下的列车动态编组与调度

为了降低疫情大爆发背景下旅客在乘坐城市轨道交通出行的过程中感染疾病的风险, 以列车编组与调度为研究对象, 提出重大疫情下基于虚拟编组的列车动态编组与调度方法; 为了提高城市轨道交通列车编组与调度的灵活性, 应用虚拟编组技术对城市轨道交通列车进行编组; 建立了基于客流的列车动态编组非线性规划模型, 对城市轨道交通列车的调度进行优化, 以提高城市轨道交通的运输效率, 降低车站人员密度, 进而降低疾病的感染风险; 应用改进的Wells-Riley模型进行感染分析; 应用基于社会力的行人运动模型对改进的Wells-Riley模型中的相关参数进行计算, 用于分析虚拟编组动态调度下旅客地铁出行全过程的感染风险; 使用MATLAB对虚拟编组制式下的传染概率进行仿真并与传统制式下的传染概率进行对比。研究结果表明; 虚拟编组技术可以显著提高城市轨道交通列车运输效率, 可将列车间追踪时间间隔缩短至34.6 s, 基于虚拟编组的列车动态编组与调度方法可以有效降低旅客的感染风险, 在相同条件下应用所提方法旅客的感染风险仅为传统方式的85.1%, 在车厢和通道中的感染风险分别为传统方式的50.0%和8.7%。如果将提出的方法配合错峰出行和客流控制及进站防疫检测等措施, 可以进一步降低旅客的感染风险。     

Activity fragmentation,ICT and travel: An exploratory Path Analysis of spatiotemporal interrelationships

This paper focuses on the interrelationships between ICT, activity fragmentation and travel behaviour. The concept of fragmentation relates to how activities are spatiotemporally reorganized, by subdividing activities into smaller components that are then performed at different times and/or locations, in connection with ICT use. The association between ICT, activity fragmentation and travel relationships remains uncharted. Based on a two-day Dutch communication-activity-travel diary different associations between ICT use, paid work spatiotemporal fragmentation indicators and frequency of travel are specified and tested with Path Analysis Modelling accounting for sociodemographic and land use factors. The results demonstrate that the interrelationships between fragmentation, ICT and travel are quite complex. ICT and fragmentation apparently have a reciprocal relationship with mobile ICT use influencing the degree of spatial fragmentation whereas the usages of sedentary ICT are influenced by the degree of temporal fragmentation. Person-ICT attributes and ICT use mediate the participation in non-work activities, and can replace work and non-work travel. Fragmentation reduces work trips but at the same time restricts non-work personal travel possibilities and can reallocate time for leisure activity and travel.     

Scheduling decision styles on leisure and social activities

This paper investigates scheduling decisions associated with different types of leisure and social activities. Correlations among decisions and self-selection biases are explicitly investigated by using a sample selection model with a bivariate probit selection rule. A dataset collected in the first wave of a recent activity-travel scheduling panel survey carried out in Valencia (Spain) was used for empirical investigation. Significant differences are revealed in the empirical models for leisure and social activities in planning decisions, including different effects of temporal, companionship and demographic factors. The findings of the empirical model have important implications to travel behavior and activity-travel scheduling model developments. These results confirm the existence of different mechanisms underlying the activity-travel decision processes when leisure and social activities are of concerns. Results provide significant insights into enhancing the performances of an activity scheduling model by capturing accurate activity-travel scheduling tradeoffs in flexible activity types e.g. leisure and social activities.     

The impacts of built environment on home-based work and non-work trips: An empirical study from Iran

This paper aims to explore the impact of built environment attributes in the scale of one quarter-mile buffers on individuals’ travel behaviors in the metropolitan of Shiraz, Iran. In order to develop this topic, the present research is developed through the analysis of a dataset collected from residents of 22 neighborhoods with variety of land use features. Using household survey on daily activities, this study investigates home-based work and non-work (HBW and HBN) trips. Structural equation models are utilized to examine the relationships between land use attributes and travel behavior while taking into account socio-economic characteristics as the residential self-selection. Results from models indicate that individuals residing in areas with high residential and job density, and shorter distance to sub-centers are more interested in using transit and non-motorized modes. Moreover, residents of neighborhoods with mixed land uses tend to travel less by car and more by transit and non-motorized modes to non-work destinations. Nevertheless, the influences of design measurements such as street density and internal connectivity are mixed in our models. Although higher internal connectivity leads to more transit and non-motorized trips in HBW model, the impacts of design measurements on individuals travel behavior in HBN model are significantly in contrast with research hypothesis. Our study also shows the importance of individuals’ self-selection impacts on travel behaviors; individuals with special socio-demographic attributes live in the neighborhoods with regard to their transportation patterns. The findings of this paper reveal that the effects of built environment attributes on travel behavior in origins of trips do not exactly correspond with the expected predictions, when it comes in practice in a various study context. This study displays the necessity of regarding local conditions of urban areas and the inherent differences between travel destinations in integrating land use and transportation planning.     

社会偏好视野下旅游出行服务链定价博弈模型

为综合分析社会偏好理论视野下的服务链定价策略博弈问题,本文构建了服务提供商和出行即服务(Mobility as a Service, MaaS)平台组成的旅游出行服务链联盟。基于社会偏好理论建立不平等厌恶决策模式、利他决策模式和社会福利综合决策模式下的Stackelberg博弈模型,与分散决策和合作决策两种服务链基本决策模式下的博弈结果进行比较。探究MaaS环境下考虑决策者社会偏好特征的旅游出行服务产品的定价策略及服务链收益,并通过数值分析验证了模型的有效性。结果表明,决策权的分散导致旅游出行服务产品的销售价格和服务链整体最优收益降低。不平等厌恶决策模式下,产品的最优销售价格不受影响,服务链整体利润不变;利他决策模式下,服务链整体最优收益不断上升;社会福利综合决策模式下,各最优决策变量受服务提供商利他偏好的影响更大。关注服务链决策者的不平等厌恶偏好并实施利他行为,可以提高旅游出行服务产品的需求和总体收益,有利于旅游出行服务链的协调运营状态,实现交旅融合发展。     

基于改进社会力的单向流电动自行车行为建模研究

电动自行车作为一种便捷高效的出行工具,已在许多国家被广泛使用,但对电动自行车微观行为的研究仍十分有限。在上海海事大学对电动自行车驾驶行为进行观测实验,提取电动自行车轨迹数据,以纵向间距、速度差、侧向净距、水平间距作为特征变量,利用CART(Classificationand Regression Tree)决策树分类结果建立电动自行车骑行决策行为规则。然后,基于社会力模型,分别引入超越力、跟随力等改进行为力模拟电动自行车的超越、跟随等骑行决策行为。考虑公式超越力、固定值超越力和临时目标点超越力这3种超越力形式,通过实际观测数据和仿真结果比较进行参数标定和模型验证,选取单向流电动自行车行驶场景开展数值仿真分析。结果表明：临时目标点超越力的改进社会力模型在超越过程中的轨迹误差最小,电动自行车超越时所需要的横向间距与超车时横向速度、超车完成时间成正比,最佳超车横向间距为2 m。     

城市轨道交通差异化票价和补贴优化

为研究不同群体,即一般群体和特殊群体(老年人、残疾人、学生)的票价方案和补贴问题,本文考虑不同群体的差异性,以各群体的票价折扣率和列车开行间隔为决策变量,构建基于群体差异化的运营补贴优化模型,以社会福利最大化为目标,优化各群体的票价折扣率、企业的服务水平及政府的补贴额度,确保各群体获得合适的补贴,实现公共交通出行的公平性。综合考虑城市轨道交通运输能力约束、政府财政约束及不同群体票价折扣率约束,设计了基于模拟退火算法的求解算法。以长沙地铁2号线为例,分析比较不同群体的票价折扣率,提出基于列车运行计划的福利票价方案。研究结果表明,一般群体不享受折扣,残疾人4折优惠,老年人2折优惠及学生6折优惠,交通特殊群体的出行比分别提升了1.06%,2.86%及1.94%。政府在实施补贴政策时,可以通过不同群体的票价福利措施和企业的服务水平确定补贴额度。     

A Network Perspective on Spatially Clustered Territorial Use Rights for Fishers (TURFs) in Vietnam

Co-managed territorial use rights for fishers (TURFs) have shown promise for small-scale fisheries management. The territorial use rights help clarify access and ownership rights, while co-management arrangements create formal relationships between fishers and government. However, there is limited research into the governance processes that influence the interactions and complementarities of TURF zones that are clustered together. In a network of 16 co-managed TURFs in the Cau Hai lagoon, Vietnam, we analyzed management decentralization and the relationship between spatial and networked (social) proximity. Our findings draw attention to several broad lessons for co-managed TURFs: (1) TURFs may operate as isolated silos if co-management agreements do not address relationships among TURF leaders; (2) spatial proximity does not automatically translate to social proximity; and (3) leaders of individuals TURFs need capacity for communication and coordination with other local fisheries leaders. These findings highlight the importance of consideration to the ways that TURF design and implementation influences the relationships and collaboration between fishers, government officials, and other actors.     

城市公共交通发展热点议题分析

城市公共交通事业发展过程中需要广泛征求社会公众的意见,分析网络社交媒体中的信息相较于传统的信息收集手段具有高效快速、成本低廉等优势。文中提出一套完整的网络文本分析方法,采用结巴分词、TF-IDF模型以及SnowNLP等工具及算法分析识别网民对于天津公交系统的讨论热点及情感倾向,结果显示,公众对于天津市常规公交系统的讨论主要集中于老年人免费乘车政策、驾驶员驾驶行为以及公交运营计划的执行情况等方面。此外,公众对于天津市常规公交的情感倾向呈现为积极情感与消极情感各占50%左右。     

1 000 kW喷水推进组合体的研制与应用展望

喷水推进组合体自1987年首先在胜利油田超浅吃水多用途供应船"胜利221"号装用成功以来,又在多艘船舶上装用,均取得了令人满意的效果,充分验证了其推进效率高、操纵性能佳、浅水效应影响小、工作平稳、噪音低,适应变工况能力强等技术特点.最近装用于中油海浅吃水多用途工作船上的1 000 kW喷水推进组合体也取得了成功.在详细介绍其具体研制过程的基础上展望了喷水推进组合体进一步推广应用的前景.