城市高架道路交通运行特征分析

研究了城市高架道路交通量的时间和空间分布特征、服务水平和服务特征(服务车次、服务车公里、服务车均公里、车公里利用率)。研究发现,城市高架道路交通量在时间上具有明显的早晚高峰特征,在空间上表现出明显的不均匀性,同时,在城市高架道路建成初期,具有非常好的服务水平和较低的利用水平。     

区域城际轨道交通网络与空间结构适应性评价指标体系研究

在分析了我国现有区域性轨道交通线网规划评价体系的基础上,阐述了城际轨道交通网络与空间结构适应性的基本内涵,建立一套能反映城际轨道网布局特性和空间结构主要特征的适应性评价指标体系。     

长江口12.5 m深水航道悬沙分布特征*

利用长江口12.5 m深水航道洪、枯季水文测验资料,分析深水航道悬沙的时空分布特征。结果表明：南港圆圆 沙段含沙量小,垂线分布相对均匀;北槽中段含沙量大,垂向分布不均匀。细颗粒泥沙絮凝、盐淡水分层与河口滞流点是 北槽中段形成高含沙量且垂向分布不均匀的主要原因。北槽中段含沙量的时空分布特征,与12.5 m深水航道的回淤变化特 征具有一致性,表明北槽中段的航道回淤可能以悬沙淤积为主;而南港圆圆沙段含沙量低,且垂向相对均匀,表明该区段 航道回淤受悬沙的影响较小。     

瓯江南口外浅滩含沙浓度特征

基于2010年10月瓯江南口外浅滩的泥沙实测资料,对含沙浓度的时空变化进行了分析研究。利用非线性最小二乘法拟合出了新的含沙量公式,并与刘家驹公式在不考虑波浪作用下的简式作比较,对新公式的适用性进行了探讨。分析结果表明:(1)含沙浓度从瓯江南口门向外海逐渐减小,沿岸方向的变化则存在大、中、小潮差异;(2)垂向上,含沙浓度由表层向底层逐渐增大;(3)含沙浓度具有大潮最大、中潮次之、小潮最小的特点,涨潮含沙浓度基本大于落潮含沙浓度;(4)与刘家驹公式相比,新公式的拟合结果与实测含沙量的相对误差较小,相关性较高。     

How to Retreat: The Necessary Transition from Buyouts to Leasing

Abstract

Moving assets out of vulnerable areas, known as “retreat,” is a necessary but unpopular option when coastal hazards impact land. Most people prefer protection options. Governments and private land owners tend to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach for retreat. This may be because the time for retreat seems some way off, or because protection has not yet been ruled out, or to avoid unwelcome news. This policy void has allowed people to assume that government will offer to “buyout” property on generous terms after coastal hazards inevitably force the owner to relocate. The problem with that assumption is that (a) it is unaffordable as a solution for all at-risk properties and (b) it acts as an incentive to intensify development in locations vulnerable to coastal hazards. It is, in effect, a form of market distortion which promotes maladaptive behavior. We therefore need to retire that assumption by articulating a standard default arrangement for retreat. This essay suggests that government should establish a default position of renting land, rather than acquiring it, once assets are abandoned by private land owners. This provides sufficient leverage to protect the public interest and a level of financial assistance to the relocating land owner, while allowing markets to properly reflect risk and enabling coastal adaptation.     

独塔斜拉桥空间曲线钢塔柱结构性能分析

以某独塔斜拉桥的空间曲线塔为基础,利用Midas／Civil,建立空间杆系模型,进行全桥整体静力分析,确定钢塔柱、上下分肢局部以及索塔锚固区的5种最不利荷载工况,得出相应荷载和位移边界条件．再利用大型空间有限元分析软件ANSYS,建立钢塔柱三维实体模型,进行空间受力性能分析,明确钢塔柱和索塔锚固区钢板的受力性能．计算结果表明,钢塔柱的变形较小,钢塔柱、上下分肢局部及索塔锚固区的钢板应力水平均满足规范要求,结构的安全储备良好．这也说明采用双向分叉的空间曲线索塔的设计是较为合理的．     

Modelling trip distribution with fuzzy and genetic fuzzy systems

This paper explores the potential capabilities of fuzzy and genetic fuzzy system approaches in urban trip distribution modelling with some new features. First, a simple fuzzy rule-based system (FRBS) and a novel genetic fuzzy rule-based system [GFRBS: a fuzzy system improved by a knowledge base learning process with genetic algorithms (GAs)] are designed to model intra-city passenger flows for Istanbul. Subsequently, their accuracy, applicability and generalizability characteristics are evaluated against the well-known gravity- and neural network (NN)-based trip distribution models. The overall results show that: traditional doubly constrained gravity models are still simple and efficient; NNs may not show expected performance when they are forced to satisfy trip constraints; simply-designed FRBSs, learning from observations and expertise, are both efficient and interpretable even if the data are large and noisy; and use of GAs in fuzzy rule-based learning considerably increases modelling performance, although it brings additional computation cost.     

航运服务产业链的内涵与生成机理

为研究航运服务产业链的内涵与生成机理,在对国内外相关文献梳理的基础上,提出了航运服务产业链的定义,分析其产业构成.在对航运服务产业链生成的三类研究路径分析的基础上,构建了一个综合分析框架:外部促进、内部驱动和适应性选择.根据该分析框架,分析了航运服务产业链生成的外生机理和内生机理,归纳了其生成的动力.     

基于博弈论的货主船队发展风险及合作研究

干散货船队业务经营范围遍及全球,其波动周期和变化规律与全球贸易及世界经济紧密相关.为了探讨干散货货主船队快速发展引发的航运市场风险及货主企业与专业船队合作共赢的途径,在理论分析的基础上,运用博弈论相关理论知识建立了货主企业与航运企业的动态博弈模型,并提出货主企业与专业船队应将共同组建船队及签订长期运输合同作为主要的合作模式.该研究对于促进干散货航运市场的稳定及货主企业和专业船队发展具有现实意义.     

舰船燃气轮机燃气初温的热经济学优化分析

运用热经济学分析方法对燃气初温的确定进行研究,建立燃气轮机的热力学模型、涡轮叶片的寿命表达式和经济学模型;以装置每小时消耗费用为目标函数,对燃气轮机的燃气初温进行优化分析,得出优化结果。