Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

船舶中速主机低频排气噪声控制研究

结合在船舶建造中遇到的低频主机排气噪声控制问题,从实船噪声源的确定、主机排气噪声谱分析和消声器声学性能验证等方面进行探索,并从排气噪声控制角度对船舶柴油机排气系统设计提出了建议。     

Design and Practice of Cloud Computing Platform for TBM Operation Information北大核心CSCD

The problems of TBM construction data loss, information barriers and absence of data mining have con⁃ strained the advancement of basic technologies in TBM field. Aimed at building a cloud computation platform for TBM operation information, a new concept of 3B, i. e. Born by digit, Born in format and Born to the cloud, was pre⁃ sented, the issues of information acquisition, transmission and storage during TBM operation were solved, and massive heterogeneous information intelligent transmission system and big data warehouse of TBM group were established. A structure model of cloud computation platform was designed by taking Hadoop system as ecosphere, and a cloud computation platform was built to deploy related algorithm, realizing on-line monitoring and data sharing, further⁃ more the data law mining of interaction of rock mass versus TBM machine was conducted based on big data tech⁃ nique, exploring the development direction of the information platform. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

斗轮堆取料机生产信息优化与共享

针对如何将斗轮堆取料机司机与司机、操作员和生产管理者之间相互连接的问题,对斗轮堆取料机生产信息的优化和共享进行研究,通过在散货码头流程控制系统和生产信息系统的基础上融合再开发,利用现场工业以太网,实现了斗轮堆取料机与操作员之间、斗轮堆取料机司机之间、斗轮堆取料机与生产信息管理系统之间、斗轮堆取料机与远程管理者之间4个层面的信息共享,使各方可根据需求实时共享信息,并对生产进行指导和控制。斗轮堆取料机生产信息的优化和共享提高各方联动互通性,尤其是提高了混配作业的准确性和有效性,增强了散货码头在混配生产上的竞争力。     

长江航道大型整治工程施工安全控制关键技术

长江航道大型整治工程施工河段长、工程量大且工序多,施工水域船舶通航密度大、船舶种类多,施工安全生产控制与河段通航安全面临巨大挑战。依托长江干线下、中、上游典型大型航道整治工程,围绕工程施工全过程风险管控及安全保障技术,采用理论分析、仿真模拟、现场试验、系统研发相结合的方法,提出了长江航道大型整治工程风险识别与评估方法,构建了通航安全与施工生产安全风险预测模型,研究了长江航道大型整治工程全方位、全过程、全要素施工安全保障与控制技术,并基于AIS和云技术开发了长江航道整治工程施工区安全综合信息平台,为保障大型航道整治工程生产及通航安全提供了理论依据和技术手段。     

内河船舶波浪载荷研究

利用内河波浪散布图和修订波浪谱对内河系列船舶进行了波浪载荷的计算预报,首次分析了内河船舶波浪载荷的规律和特点,并与俄罗斯内河登记局(RRR)和法国-德国船级社(B-G)的内河规范载荷对应的等效模数要求进行了比较分析。结合实船测试结果表明：波浪载荷变化规律与国外同类规范一致,预报波浪载荷水平与测试结果及国外同类规范要求相当。内河船舶波浪载荷预报应考虑航速和水深的影响,载荷预报结果可以作为制定内河波浪载荷公式的基础。     

南海风浪条件下Spar式浮式风机平台的构型及参数

使用WAMIT软件建立了OC3-Hywind Spar式浮式风机模型,联合FAST软件计算了浮式风机在不同工况下的幅值响应算子;结合为南海海域波浪条件优化后的JONSWAP谱,对浮式风机进行了不同工况下的响应谱分析及最大响应值计算;进一步阐述了浮式平台结构构型参数的变化对整体结构在南海相应工况下的运动影响。     

台风"莎莉嘉"过境期间某泻湖内波浪特征分析

通过在某岛礁泻湖内布置ADCP波流测量仪器,采集到2016年21号台风"莎莉嘉"期间的波浪数据.结合布置在泻湖口处风速仪的风实测数据,本文对该时间段内的波浪特征进行分析.由波浪统计数据分析发现有义波高随时间的变化趋势与风速的变化趋势高度重合;谱峰周期的变化则要晚于风速的变化;谱峰方向在台风起主导作用期间与风向高度一致.通过分析多个无因次参数以及对风浪和涌浪进行分离发现测点与台风中心距离开始变大的这个时间点有着重要的意义.在该时间点,波长开始变长,波浪由无限水深波浪转变为有限水深波浪.一些波浪特征值,比如谱峰周期、a/L,也发生比较大的变化.此后在七级风半径不再覆盖测点时,该处波浪由风浪转变为涌浪.对波浪谱进行分析发现,在台风主导期间,其谱为单峰谱,其余时间则为双峰谱.     

智能船舶集成设计技术

针对符合CCS《智能船舶规范》入级符号的船舶设计开发,研究分析智能船舶集成设计技术的设计思想、设计要素、设计框架和关键技术,设计目标船解决方案,并讨论了未来需要突破技术方向。     

我国船舶行业智能制造的新内涵与应用

加快推动新一代信息技术与先进船舶制造技术深度融合,将对我国船舶行业的发展带来重大影响.本文从分析智能制造的内涵人手,研究探索把人工智能、物联网、大数据、云计算等新技术与智能制造相融合的思路,尝试提出新一代信息技术条件下智能制造的新内涵,并对其在我国船舶行业的应用进行分析,进一步讨论目前发展所面临的问题,最后结合现状提出建议.