Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

基于HMM-SVR的船舶动力设备故障模式识别与状态预测研究

船舶动力设备因故障监测信号样本少、变化缓慢且数据特征呈非线性,使得设备故障模式的准确识别和状态预测比较难。鉴于此,文章研究了基于隐马尔科夫模型的故障模式识别方法,利用该模型将微弱变化的信号特征转换为变化较大的对数似然概率对故障模式实现有效识别。在此基础上进一步提出基于HMM-SVR的设备状态预测模型,将遗传算法用于支持向量回归模型参数寻优,并结合隐马尔科夫模型,实现对设备状态的预测。对船用柴油机进行仿真,结果表明上述模型具有较高的识别率,能准确预测船舶动力设备的当前状态。     

深埋双线铁路隧道衬砌高水压分界值研究

为研究深埋双线铁路隧道衬砌高水压分界值以及高水压作用下的衬砌受力状态,基于双线铁路隧道设计标准,利用有限元软件计算和分析双线铁路隧道衬砌在不同水压作用下隧道衬砌安全系数的变化规律,确定双线铁路隧道衬砌的高水压分界值。研究结果表明:Ⅱ、Ⅲ级围岩条件下水压力在0~0.05 MPa(约等于隧道净高一半)和Ⅳ、Ⅴ级围岩条件下水压力在0~0.1 MPa(约等于隧道净高)范围内变化时,隧道断面安全系数基本不变。在Ⅱ、Ⅲ级围岩条件下,双线隧道的高水压第一分界值为0.08~0.20 MPa;高水压第二分界值可取为0.40MPa。在Ⅳ、Ⅴ级围岩条件下,双线隧道的高水压第一分界值为0.12~0.35 MPa;高水压第二分界值为0.50 MPa。双线铁路隧道采用标准设计图进行设计时,能够承受的最大静水头为50 m,超过50 m的静水头,则需要优化断面。     

基于曲波变换的高铁绝缘子状态检测方法

针对高铁接触网绝缘子破损的不良状态图像检测问题,提出一种利用曲波变换的绝缘子不良状态定位检测方法。先通过Radon变换实现绝缘子角度的确定,接着运用曲波变换对系数矩阵进行统计处理,最后实现绝缘子的角度调整、定位和破损情况判断。该方法能够精确定位绝缘子,并给出不良状态的判断,可以为工程应用提供技术参考。     

基于面元法的吊舱推进器定常性能研究

基于势流理论面元法建立了吊舱推进器定常性能的计算方法.分别建立螺旋桨和吊舱的积分方程,通过在表面上布置双曲面元将方程离散为以面元上偶极强度为未知量的矩阵.螺旋桨和吊舱之间的相互影响通过迭代计算来处理.Newton-Raphson迭代过程被用来在桨叶随边满足压力Kutta条件.为避免数值求导中的奇异性,用柳泽(Yanagizawa)方法求得物体表面的速度分布.支架作为升力体处理,并通过迭代计算更新支架的尾涡形状.计算了拖式吊舱推进器的定常水动力性能,与实验结果的比较表明,计算误差在5%以内.分析了舱体对螺旋桨的影响,舱体的伴流会引起螺旋桨的载荷增大.     

考虑横向漂移的船舶路径跟踪自抗扰控制

针对船舶运动系统中内部动态不确定和外部干扰等问题,进行了欠驱动船舶路径跟踪的自抗扰方法研究。利用Backstepping设计参考航向角,并通过线性扩张状态观测器对流干扰和横向运动引起的横向漂移进行估计。其次,根据自抗扰算法对航向进行控制,采用线性扩张状态观测器对外界干扰及内部不确定项进行估计。最后仿真结果表明,在风流干扰下所设计的控制器仍能使船准确地跟踪上参考路径,验证了所提控制方案的有效性。     

Use of localized necking and fracture as a failure criterion in ship collision analysis

This study explores the use of localized necking for failure modeling in maritime crash analysis, using large shell elements. The assumption that the failure of a large shell element occurs simultaneously with the onset of localized necking is revisited. This study particularly investigates the numerical implementation of the localized necking condition and its implications on the results of ship collision analysis involving not only plate rupture but also various failure mechanisms such as the crushing and tearing of web girders, stringers, and their intersections. Through a series of large-scale collision simulations, the effects of bending deformation on the initiation of necking, non-proportional loading paths, and ductile fractures not preceded by localized necking, are investigated. It is demonstrated that a localized necking-based fracture model provides a reasonable, relatively mesh-insensitive estimate of the onset of fracture in the outer hull panels; however, fracture propagation is very sensitive to the numerical implementation of the necking and fracture model, especially for the cases involving the crushing of web frames and stringers.     

深海拖曳系统自稳定二级拖体姿态控制研究

二级深拖系统具有可控性强、母船扰动弱等优点,是重要的海洋探测平台。在实际工作中,二级拖体姿态稳定是保证探测数据准确的基本前提。本文以具有自主调节功能的二级拖体为例,对其姿态控制进行研究。首先建立了二级拖缆的“弹簧——阻尼”模型,并在此基础上建立了二级深拖系统的数学模型。其次根据该系统具有非线性、时变性等特点,设计了具有参数自修正功能的模糊自适应PID控制器,以实现在不同工况下对二级拖体的姿态进行控制。仿真结果表明,未加载控制器时,海况变化对拖体姿态有显著影响,其俯仰角和横滚角均会发生大范围波动。加载模糊自适应PID控制器后,拖体通过自主调节,能够使姿态波动控制在较小范围,从而满足工作要求,验证了拖缆数学模型的正确性和所采用的控制方法的可行性。     

普速铁路繁忙干线钢轨服役现状的调查分析

针对普速铁路繁忙干线,测试了累计通过总质量800～1100 Mt线路钢轨的硬度、廓形、磨耗和锈蚀深度、焊接接头平直度,调研了钢轨使用和伤损情况.结果表明:钢轨踏面中心硬化率不大于7％;打磨后钢轨实测廓形与60N标准廓形在轮轨接触区域竖向偏差不大于0.2 mm;钢轨垂直磨耗在3.0～5.7 mm,轨底角边缘厚度在8.35...     

潜艇悬停水舱排注水控制方式比较

为合理设计悬停水舱,根据理想气体状态方程,计算不同的注排水控制方式下的潜艇高压气体消耗量和舱室气压增量,采用定性分析的方法,比较不同的注排水控制方式在噪声水平及能耗两个方面的特点。结果表明,在潜艇日益重视减振降噪及在高压空气消耗量和舱室气压增量可以接受的情况下,悬停水舱选择能耗及噪声最低的气排注控制方式最为合理。