Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences

Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. We make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. We focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. We then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, we are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future.     

基于BP神经网络的隧道围岩分类

应用BP神经网络建立了隧道围岩分类模型,对其影响因素进行分析,并对模型进行优化,将训练好的分类模型运用到贵安隧道,为隧道围岩分类提供了一种简便可行的方法。     

超大跨度双跨钢桁梁悬索桥动力特性分析和模态试验

以跨径布置460 m+1480 m+491 m的一座双跨钢桁梁悬索桥结构为工程背景,充分考虑结构几何非线性效应、大位移非线性效应等因素的影响,建立了算例桥梁的MIDAS空间有限元分析模型,对基本动力特性进行了仿真分析和结构振动试验测试;对成桥结构进行动力特征参数测试,并与理论计算值进行了对比分析,该桥实测动力特征参数与对应理论计算值基本吻合,且测试值大于理论计算值,这表明成桥结构实测刚度大于理论设计目标值。     

基于ABAQUS的地质偏压隧道非线性接触分析

针对于山岭隧道常出现的,穿越倾斜产状的层状岩体,或多在隧道进出口处节理裂隙发育的情况,结合成兰铁路茂县隧道出口地段所处的地质偏压环境,应用ABAQUS有限元分析软件中的面-面接触单元,建立节理软弱结构面的二维隧道模型。并对地质偏压隧道的围岩压力及衬砌结构内力进行非线性接触分析和计算,初步得出单线铁路隧道在地质偏压情况下围岩和衬砌结构的位移、应力的分布特征,并讨论软弱结构面的摩擦系数对隧道偏压作用的影响,根据隧道受力特点提出隧道在地质偏压情况下可能采取的建议和措施。     

灰铸铁飞轮疲劳失效分析

大马力飞轮是商用车一款大马力发动机的零部件,其搭载大马力发动机为商用车提供动力总成。飞轮在工作期间,因经常与离合器摩擦,售后市场出现离合器打滑,起步困难、抖动较大等整车问题,拆解后发现,飞轮表面出现磨损不平、表面微裂纹为主要的失效形态的现象。     

基于力学分析的皮卡车牵引能力研究

本文介绍了一种基于力学分析的皮卡车(也称多用途货车)牵引能力的理论计算和试验方法,得出了决定皮卡车牵引能力的主要因素有:皮卡车动力传动系统能力、驱动形式、结构强度,挂车类型以及道路情况等。经验证,理论计算得到的牵引能力与试验结果一致性较好:通过皮卡车牵引能力的计算和验证,能够有效指导企业进行设计开发,充分发挥皮卡车较强的牵引能力特性,推动皮卡车市场发展。     

大型斜拉桥的空间构造及设计分析

斜拉桥是重要的桥梁结构形式,由于其梁体内弯矩小、建筑高度低等优点而被广发地采用。该文主要针对大型斜拉桥的空间结构特点,分析和研究了斜拉桥的空间设置和设计问题。首先根据斜拉桥的结构组成,分析了各个组成构件的空间布置,并进行了相应的力学计算,在此基础上,研究了大型斜拉桥的空间结构设计,主要讨论了在具体情况下的结构选型问题。     

Roll- and pitch-plane coupled hydro-pneumatic suspension

Passive fluidically coupled suspensions have been considered to offer a promising alternative solution to the challenging design of a vehicle suspension system. A theoretical foundation, however, has not been established for fluidically coupled suspension to facilitate its broad applications to various vehicles. The first part of this study investigates the fundamental issues related to feasibility and properties of the passive, full-vehicle interconnected, hydro-pneumatic suspension configurations using both analytical and simulation techniques. Layouts of various interconnected suspension configurations are illustrated based on two novel hydro-pneumatic suspension strut designs, both of which provide a compact design with a considerably large effective working area. A simplified measure, vehicle property index, is proposed to permit a preliminary evaluation of different interconnected suspension configurations using qualitative scaling of the bounce-, roll-, pitch- and warp-mode stiffness properties. Analytical formulations for the properties of unconnected and three selected X-coupled suspension configurations are derived, and simulation results are obtained to illustrate their relative stiffness and damping properties in the bounce, roll, pitch and warp modes. The superior design flexibility feature of the interconnected hydro-pneumatic suspension is also discussed through sensitivity analysis of a design parameter, namely the annular piston area of the strut. The results demonstrate that a full-vehicle interconnected hydro-pneumatic suspension could provide enhanced roll- and pitch-mode stiffness and damping, while retaining the soft bounce- and warp-mode properties. Such an interconnected suspension thus offers considerable potential in realising enhanced decoupling among the different suspension modes.     

Propagating buckles in corroded pipelines

Rigid–plastic solutions for the steady-state, quasi-static buckle propagation pressure in corroded pipelines are derived and compared to finite element predictions (ABAQUS). The corroded pipeline is modeled as an infinitely long, cylindrical shell with a section of reduced thickness that is used to describe the corrosion. A five plastic hinge mechanism is used to describe plastic collapse of the corroded pipeline. Closed-form expressions are given for the buckle propagation pressure as a function of the amount of corrosion in an X77 steel pipeline. Buckles that propagate down the pipeline are caused by either global or snap-through buckling, depending on the amount of corrosion. Global buckling occurs when the angular extent of the corrosion is greater than 90°. When the angular extent is less than 90° and the corrosion is severe, snap-through buckling takes place. The buckle propagation pressure and the corresponding collapse modes also compare well to finite element predictions.     

Activity patterns,time use,and travel of millennials: a generation in transition?

Millennials, defined in this study as those born between 1979 and 2000, became the largest population segment in the United States in 2015. Compared to recent previous generations, they have been found to travel less, own fewer cars, have lower driver’s licensure rates, and use alternative modes more. But to what extent will these differences in behaviour persist as millennials move through various phases of the lifecycle? To address this question, this paper presents the results of a longitudinal analysis of the 2003–2013 American Time Use Survey data series. In early adulthood, younger millennials (born 1988–1994) are found to spend significantly more time in-home than older millennials (born 1979–1985), which indicates that there are substantial differences in activity-time use patterns across generations in early adulthood. Older millennials are, however, showing activity-time use patterns similar to their prior generation counterparts as they age, although some differences – particularly in time spent as a car driver – persist. Millennials appear to exhibit a lag in adopting the activity patterns of predecessor generations due to delayed lifecycle milestones (e.g. completing their education, getting jobs, marrying, and having children) and lingering effects of the economic recession, suggesting that travel demand will resume growth in the future.