基于时间序列法的舰船运动预报实验研究

采用线性自回归AR模型、具有首前波观测量的ARMA模型以及非线性自回归NAR模型三种方法分别对舰船运动进行预报,将得到的预报结果与实验测量结果进行验证比较,并对最佳预报模式进行讨论.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

客车行业的市场现状及政策趋势

分析客车行业的市场现状及政策趋势；对客车行业应重点关注节能和安全标准的实施进行阐述。     

水力插板建设航道拦沙堤坝

通过东营港几项航道整治建筑物工程的实践和与传统技术的比较,介绍水力插板在建设航道拦沙堤坝中的应用。     

布袋注浆桩施工工艺及造价指标分析

根据布袋注浆桩施工情况，结合现场施工记录和收集的资料，对布袋注浆桩从施工工艺流程的设计到成孔设备的选择，从振动沉管机成孔施工步骤到注浆中注浆管及布袋绑扎、下放、拌制浆液及注浆都作了详细的分析。并根据人员组织、材料消耗和主要施工机械设备的消耗，对布袋注浆桩施工技术的造价成本指标进行了分析。     

A closed-loop dynamic simulation-based design method for articulated heavy vehicles with active trailer steering systems

This paper presents a closed-loop dynamic simulation-based design method for articulated heavy vehicles (AHVs) with active trailer steering (ATS) systems. AHVs have poor manoeuvrability at low speeds and exhibit low lateral stability at high speeds. From the design point of view, there exists a trade-off relationship between AHVs’ manoeuvrability and stability. For example, fewer articulation points and longer wheelbases will improve high-speed lateral stability, but they will degrade low-speed manoeuvrability. To tackle this conflicting design problem, a systematic method is proposed for the design of AHVs with ATS systems. In order to evaluate vehicle performance measures under a well-defined testing manoeuvre, a driver model is introduced and it ‘drivers’ the vehicle model to follow a prescribed route at a given speed. Considering the interactions between the mechanical trailer and the ATS system, the proposed design method simultaneously optimises the active design variables of the controllers and passive design variables of the trailer in a single design loop (SDL). Through the design optimisation of an ATS system for an AHV with a truck and a drawbar trailer combination, this SDL method is compared against a published two design loop method. The benchmark investigation shows that the former can determine better trade-off design solutions than those derived by the latter. This SDL method provides an effective approach to automatically implement the design synthesis of AHVs with ATS systems.     

Wear simulation for the centre plate arrangement of a freight car

The bodies of many railway freight cars in many countries of the world are coupled to the running gear by means of a body centre plate that makes a friction pair with a centre bowl. During motion, the bogie is rotated and moved with respect to the car body. This leads to wear on the contact surfaces. Lubrication is inexpedient in this case because the friction forces damp the vibrations (so-called bogie hunting) during motion. Usually, centre plates exhibit noticeable wear after two years of operation. Reducing wear requires knowing details of the wear process which, in turn, requires computer simulation of freight car motion for an operation period of 10–15 years. The purpose of this paper is to develop a universal method for wear simulation of friction pairs that could be used, in particular, for the centre plate of a freight car.     

基于滑移线法挡土墙土压力问题的讨论

传统的土压力理论根据墙后土体极限平衡所得，没有考虑极限状态下土体的速度边界，为上限解或下限解．文中基于滑移线法，利用上下限定理，对墙后土体的静力场和速度场进行了计算，分别求得考虑和不考虑墙土摩擦时，土体中的应力场、速度场和土压力分布．计算结果表明：考虑墙土摩擦时，极限状态对应的速度边界条件为挡土墙转动加平动状态；不考虑墙土摩擦时，土压力和朗肯土压力一致，对应挡土墙平动状态．     

机车乘务员出乘“三交三问”系统的开发与应用

介绍了机车乘务员出乘时“三交三问”培训、考试系统,系统有机地将“三交三问”培训考试、用户管理、题库管理、成绩查询、考试分析、数据备份与还原等模块集成在一起,充分利用了模块化的设计思想和开发方法,探索出机车乘务员班前针对性教育的新路子。     

提速车辆转向架橡胶球铰刚度分析

根据提速客车转向架橡胶球铰的结构特点，结合橡胶的本构模型及相关系数，利用ABAQUS软件对其径向刚度、轴向刚度、偏转刚度和扭转刚度进行了分析，并将计算结果和试验结果进行了比较。结果表明：计算结果和试验结果具有较好的一致性，利用有限元分析能指导橡胶球铰及同类产品的结构设计。