内蒙古公路交通需求预测系统开发构想

交通需求预测是路网规划和公路建设项目可行性研究的核心内容。现有商业交通需求预测软件以国外软件为主,这些软件价格昂贵,并且没有进行良好的本土化改造,不利于使用。因此开发适合国情、区情的公路交通需求预测软件具有十分重大的意义。文章构建了内蒙古公路交通需求预测系统开发的基本框架,分析了交通需求预测软件的基本内容和技术路线。     

Transit network design with allocation of green vehicles: A genetic algorithm approach

The use of fossil fuels in transportation generates harmful emissions that accounts for nearly half of the total pollutants in urban areas. Dealing with this issue, local authorities are dedicating specific efforts to seize the opportunity offered by new fuels and technological innovations in achieving a cleaner urban mobility. In fact, authorities are improving environmental performances of their public transport fleet by procuring cleaner vehicles, usually called low and zero emission vehicles (LEV and ZEV, respectively). Nevertheless there seems to be a lack of methodologies for supporting stakeholders in decisions related to the introduction of green vehicles, whose allocation should be performed since the network design process in order to optimize their available green capacity.In this paper, the problem of clean vehicle allocation in an existing public fleet is faced by introducing a method for solving the transit network design problem in a multimodal, demand elastic urban context dealing with the impacts deriving from transportation emissions.The solving procedure consists of a set of heuristics which includes a routine for route generation and a genetic algorithm for finding a sub-optimal set of routes with the associated frequencies.     

“多管齐下,方能解忧”——对改善城市交通环境的思索

结合时代特征,从当前城市交通矛盾的两个主要方面——交通需求和交通供给展开分析,以解决目前特大、大型城市交通拥堵问题。     

Aggregate expenditure elasticity for transport and communication in Australia

For the purpose of estimating Engel elasticity, one needs to find the best functional form among various alternatives. In this paper, a new function, which is called the double semi-log Engel function turns out to be the best functional form for the transport and communication items in Australia on the basis of the distance function (D²) criterion, and the non-nested hypothesis testing procedure. This function is then used to estimate total expenditure elasticity, and the percentage change in consumer demand due to changes in total expenditure and total expenditure inequalities; using the 1975–76 Household Expenditure Survey data. The results of the analyses demonstrate that transport and communication is a necessary item in Australia on the basis of two criteria, viz., its elasticity is not significantly greater than unity, and the percentage change in demand increases with a decrease of the total expenditure inequality [emphasised by Iyengar (I960)]. Policy implication of the analyses has also been discussed.     

A conceptual and methdological framework for the generation of activity-travel patterns

This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Parking policies in large cities in Germany

This article deals with highly motorized large West German cities of about 200,000 inhabitants and more, which usually provide reasonable public transport systems. Illegal parking with shares of about 40 to 50% of the total parking is widespread in the parking problem areas of those cities, especially in the inner-city residential and mixed-use areas. Parking spaces are demanded by residents, employees, customers and visitors, and by delivery and service traffic. The different characteristics of parking demands by different user groups are discussed. The total parking supply consists of public and private spaces. The share of private spaces is about 40 to 50% of the total parking spaces in German cities. The amount of car traffic generated by a parking space depends on parking duration and parking turnover, as well as on search traffic. So the change of a space from long-duration use of an employee to short-duration of customers — as often discussed in parking concepts — generates at least five-fold car traffic. The measurements and effects of parking control of public spaces as well as the parking regulations in zoning ordinances, restrictions on the construction of new private parking spaces and park-and-ride are discussed. Finally, a parking concept methodology — using the example of Frankfurt am Main — is discussed.     

Demand for rail travel to and from airports

Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position.     

Bridge and tunnel toll elasticities in New York

In 1992, the authors carried out a statistical analysis of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) crossings in New York City, to determine the impact of toll increases on traffic volumes and revenue. Using twelve years of monthly time-series data, we developed a set of multiple regression models that estimated traffic volumes on each TBTA bridge and tunnel as a function of the toll level and other explanatory variables. In most cases, the estimated toll elasticities were negative and much less than 1.0 in absolute value; the median toll elasticity for automobiles was found to be –0.10. Our finding that automobile travel demand is highly inelastic with respect to toll rates is consistent with most previous travel demand studies.     

Uncertain demand,modal competition and optimal price-capacity adjustments in air transportation

A new microeconomic model for the operation of an airline facing modal competition with uncertain total demand is developed to analyze optimal price capacity combinations. The novelty is the treatment of the capacity restriction, which is not viewed as affecting negatively individual preferences (e.g. probability of a full flight), but does influence aggregate utility. A mode choice model is used to represent unrestricted individual preferences assuming full availability (phone call demand); air capacity is treated as a variable that acts on the actual choice set. Restricted choices and total demand stochasticity are integrated in welfare calculations (users' benefits and profits). Numerical examples are given and results are analyzed in terms of load factors fare levels, and sensitivity to the stochasticity of requests.This research was partially funded by FONDECYT, Chile, Direction Génerale de l'Aviation Civile, France, the Andes Foundation and the Fulbright Commission.