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准确预测热工参数劣化趋势是对柴油机实施预测维修的前提。已有预测技术均视不同时段信息所具有的建模价值相等,忽略了近期信息比远期信息更能反映设备当前运行态势这一客观事实,导致预测模型难以准确描述柴油机热工参数的真实变化规律。针对该问题,提出一种基于三点模型的柴油机热工参数预测方法,并采用新陈代谢法同步更新建模数据,以提高建模数据的利用效率及预测精度。与灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测精度的对比结果表明,三点模型能够有效处理不同时段信息在反映设备运行态势能力上的差异,得到更为准确的预测结果。 相似文献
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This paper addresses the optimal toll design problem for the cordon-based congestion pricing scheme, where both a time-toll and a nonlinear distance-toll (i.e., joint distance and time toll) are levied for each network user’s trip in a pricing cordon. The users’ route choice behaviour is assumed to follow the Logit-based stochastic user equilibrium (SUE). We first propose a link-based convex programming model for the Logit-based SUE problem with a joint distance and time toll pattern. A mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) is developed to formulate the optimal joint distance and time toll design problem. The developed MPEC model is equivalently transformed into a semi-infinite programming (SIP) model. A global optimization method named Incremental Constraint Method (ICM) is designed for solving the SIP model. Finally, two numerical examples are used to assess the proposed methodology. 相似文献
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文章考虑了土体力学特性,以及桩身材料性质、桩长与桩径(含扩底直径)、桩顶埋深、桩顶卸载与加载、群桩效应等诸多因素的影响,结合工程经验给出了计算扩底抗拔桩极限承载力的半经验半理论方法;根据扩底抗拔桩破坏面位置不同,将扩底抗拔桩破坏模式分为三类(即破坏面延伸至地表的整体剪切破坏、破坏面介于地表与扩孔段之间的局部剪切破坏与破坏面位于扩孔段附近的冲剪破坏),推导出了整体剪切破坏模式的极限平衡状态方程;并依据扩底抗拔桩轴对称条件与土体抗拉强度小的力学特征,给出了求解整体破坏面的微分筒数值解法;利用经验法估算了局部剪切破坏、冲剪破坏模式下的端阻力,进而给出了任意土层中扩底抗拔桩承载力计算步骤与方法;最后,结合一足尺试验的计算分析与承载力测试比较,验证了计算方法的可靠性与精确度。 相似文献
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This paper proposes and analyzes a distance-constrained traffic assignment problem with trip chains embedded in equilibrium network flows. The purpose of studying this problem is to develop an appropriate modeling tool for characterizing traffic flow patterns in emerging transportation networks that serve a massive adoption of plug-in electric vehicles. This need arises from the facts that electric vehicles suffer from the “range anxiety” issue caused by the unavailability or insufficiency of public electricity-charging infrastructures and the far-below-expectation battery capacity. It is suggested that if range anxiety makes any impact on travel behaviors, it more likely occurs on the trip chain level rather than the trip level, where a trip chain here is defined as a series of trips between two possible charging opportunities (Tamor et al., 2013). The focus of this paper is thus given to the development of the modeling and solution methods for the proposed traffic assignment problem. In this modeling paradigm, given that trip chains are the basic modeling unit for individual decision making, any traveler’s combined travel route and activity location choices under the distance limit results in a distance-constrained, node-sequenced shortest path problem. A cascading labeling algorithm is developed for this shortest path problem and embedded into a linear approximation framework for equilibrium network solutions. The numerical result derived from an illustrative example clearly shows the mechanism and magnitude of the distance limit and trip chain settings in reshaping network flows from the simple case characterized merely by user equilibrium. 相似文献
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Younes HamdouchH.W. Ho Agachai Sumalee Guodong Wang 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》2011,45(10):1805-1830
In this paper, we propose a new schedule-based equilibrium transit assignment model that differentiates the discomfort level experienced by sitting and standing passengers. The notion of seat allocation has not been considered explicitly and analytically in previous schedule-based frameworks. The model assumes that passengers use strategies when traveling from their origin to their destination. When loading a vehicle, standing on-board passengers continuing to the next station have priority to get available seats and waiting passengers are loaded on a First-Come-First-Serve (FCFS) principle. The stimulus of a standing passenger to sit increases with his/her remaining journey length and time already spent on-board. When a vehicle is full, passengers unable to board must wait for the next vehicle to arrive. The equilibrium conditions can be stated as a variational inequality involving a vector-valued function of expected strategy costs. To find a solution, we adopt the method of successive averages (MSA) that generates strategies during each iteration by solving a dynamic program. Numerical results are also reported to show the effects of our model on the travel strategies and departure time choices of passengers. 相似文献
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William H.K. Lam 《运输规划与技术》2013,36(4):245-258
This paper investigates the role of transport pricing in network design and describes two facts about flow pattern in a transportation system. The first, illustrated by an example of Braess paradox, is that adding a new link to the network does not necessarily minimize the total travel time. The second is that introducing of appropriate toll pricing may reduce not only the total network time but also the travel time for each individual traveller. It follows with the investigations of different system objectives and different pricing policies (only toll pricing and distance‐based pricing are considered), and shows how they affect the system performance and flow pattern. Lastly, a systematic optimization process is proposed for integrated planning of transport network and pricing policies. 相似文献