Optimal concession contracts for landlord port authorities with different pursuing goals

This paper investigates how landlord port authorities should offer concession contracts to their terminal operators under two different goals, by building a two-stage game for each goal. If maximizing the weighted sum of fee revenues and throughout benefits is port authorities’ goal, then the optimal concession contract can be any of the two-part tariff, the unit-fee, and the fixed-fee contracts. Accordingly, our special cases include previous works assuming that port authorities maximize either fee revenues or throughput benefits. By contrast, if maximizing the social welfare is the goal, then we find that subsidizing terminal operators, instead of charging them, is port authorities’ best choice. This result is not yet discovered in the literature.     

An optimal data-splitting algorithm for aircraft scheduling on a single runway to maximize throughput

In this research, we present a data-splitting algorithm to optimally solve the aircraft sequencing problem (ASP) on a single runway under both segregated and mixed-mode of operation. This problem is formulated as a 0–1 mixed-integer program (MIP), taking into account several realistic constraints, including safety separation standards, wide time-windows, and constrained position shifting, with the objective of maximizing the total throughput. Varied scenarios of large scale realistic instances of this problem, which is NP-hard in general, are computationally difficult to solve with the direct use of commercial solver as well as existing state-of-the-art dynamic programming method. The design of the algorithm is based on a recently introduced data-splitting algorithm which uses the divide-and-conquer paradigm, wherein the given set of flights is divided into several disjoint subsets, each of which is optimized using 0–1 MIP while ensuring the optimality of the entire set. Computational results show that the difficult instances can be solved in real-time and the solution is efficient in comparison to the commercial solver and dynamic programming, using both sequential, as well as parallel, implementation of this pleasingly parallel algorithm.     

“s”型覆岩空间结构的冲击地压危险区预测

基于微地震监测和覆岩空间结构理论，以山东华丰矿1410工作面为例，分析了“s”型覆岩空间结构的形成，利用理论方法和微地震监测预测并圈定了华丰矿1410工作面发生冲击地压的危险区域，研究了“s”型覆岩空间结构的冲击地压危险区分布规律，为现场预测和控制冲击地压灾害提供了理论基础。     

Interactive travel choices and traffic forecast in a doubly dynamical system with user inertia and information provision

This study models the joint evolution (over calendar time) of travelers’ departure time and mode choices, and the resulting traffic dynamics in a bi-modal transportation system. Specifically, we consider that, when adjusting their departure time and mode choices, travelers can learn from their past travel experiences as well as the traffic forecasts offered by the smart transport information provider/agency. At the same time, the transport agency can learn from historical data in updating traffic forecast from day to day. In other words, this study explicitly models and analyzes the dynamic interactions between transport users and traffic information provider. Besides, the impact of user inertia is taken into account in modeling the traffic dynamics. When exploring the convergence of the proposed model to the dynamic bi-modal commuting equilibrium, we find that appropriate traffic forecast can help the system converge to the user equilibrium. It is also found that user inertia might slow down the convergence speed of the day-to-day evolution model. Extensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to account for the impacts of inaccurate parameters adopted by the transport agency.     

基于 EM D桘BPN 方法的高速铁路短期客流预测

高速铁路短期客流预测是铁路运输系统的重要组成部分。无论是对列车开行方案的制定,还是对如何采取正确的营销策略,都具有重大的现实意义。通过混合经验模态分解方法和神经网络方法相结合的EMD-BPN方法来预测高速铁路短期客流量。组合方法主要分为三步：首先,使用经验模态分解方法将客流时间序列分解;其次,将IM Fs作为BP神经网络的输入;最后,应用神经网络对客流量做出预测。数值实例表明,该方法对于高速铁路短期客流预测在精度和稳定性上都有良好的表现。     

基于系统动力学的大连市出租车保有量预测

采用系统动力学模型,找出影响出租车规模内外因素间的因果关系,包括经济、人口、机动车保有量、出行需求、政策等.在系统结构分析和因果反馈分析的基础上建立了出租车系统,以大连市出租车相关统计数据进行仿真计算,分析了不同的发展政策对出租车系统的影响,提出相应的建议和对策.     

小水线面双体船波浪载荷研究

摘要：针对某大型小水线面双体船,进行波浪载荷直接计算。根据规则波中波浪载荷RAO特性和其波浪载荷的长期预报结果,确定该船的设计载荷。并将该设计载荷与CCS《小水线面双体船指南》中设计载荷进行对比和分析,指出规范对于大尺度大排水量小水线面双体船波浪载荷计算的局限性。同时,由该船波浪载荷长期值沿船长和船宽的分布,分析其波浪载荷的分布规律,为工程中大排水量小水线面双体船的结构设计和加载提供参考。     

指数平滑法在滑坡抢险工程中的应用

指数平滑技术是进行预测决策的有效方法,文章首先对指数平滑模型作了简单的介绍,然后根据某滑坡的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行了建模和预测,预测结果表明,预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明此模型可很好地应用于滑坡位移预测,可为施工决策提供可靠的依据.     

寸滩站年最大洪峰演变规律及预报研究

从趋势分析和周期分析两方面分析长江上游寸滩站年最大洪峰流量演变规律.研究表明,寸滩站年最大洪峰流量序列未发生趋势性变化;其主要周期为4a,9a,11a,29a.在此基础上,应用周期与随机模型组合方法对寸滩站1939-2004年最大洪峰流量序列进行预报.率定期的合格率为84.61%,检验期合格率为80%,预测效果较好,该模型可以应用于长期预报中.研究成果对长江三峡水库防洪调度有重要的参考价值.     

PUSLE-EKKO地质雷达在隧道超前地质预报中的应用

阐述了地质超前预报的必要性和重要性,介绍了PUSLE-EKKO系列地质雷达系统构成及探测原理,举例说明PUSLE-EKKO地质雷达在公路隧道建设中的应用。