1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

水文资料分析预测初探

水文资料在各阶段的使用当中越来越被重视,其合理性和真实性也是越来越严格。本文在分析水文资料实行一算二校、分局审查、省局汇审等环节的可靠性基础上,通过各阶段的错误率建立一灰色预测模型,提出了各阶段可控的错误率白化值及预测值,为科学、客观地评估各阶段水文资料校审质量提供了理论依据。     

组合预测模型在上海内河港口吞吐量预测中的应用

建立时间序列和二元线性回归的组合预测模型,对上海内河港口2010年、2015年和2020年的货物吞吐量水平进行了预测。研究发现,组合预测模型相比单个预测方法具有较高的精度,能够较准确地预测上海内河港口货物吞吐量。     

快速二阶BP神经网络在公路交通量预测中的应用

在二阶BP神经网络基础上加以改进，提出一种快速二阶BP神经网络，并将把该方法成功地用于公路交通量的预测中，通过与其它方法的比较分析，得出快速二阶BP神经网络预测方法加快了收敛速度，提高了结果的准确度，为科学地预测公路交通量提供了有力依据。     

全球东西干线集装箱往返运量运力预测

利用基础分析法,借助时间序列回归预测等技术手段对太平洋航线东西航线的运量和运力做了合理的预测,可为船公司进行战略调整和决策提供一定的依据。     

基于神经网络的地基承载力预测

对地基承载力的不确定性进行分析,将人工神经网络应用于地基承载力的确定,建立了地基承载力的神经网络模型,时勘察设计有一定的使用价值。     

我国集装箱运输发展战略研究

分析了我国香港港、高雄港、上海港、深圳港集装箱运输的发展状况,提出了我国集装箱市场面临的机遇以及严峻的挑战,针对我国集装箱市场存在的问题,提出了进一步的改进措施。     

高地应力软弱围岩变形控制方法

研究目的:探讨高地应力软弱围岩大变形的控制方法,并通过具体施工应用,进行现场监控量测试验验证。研究方法:结合乌鞘岭特长隧道最大断层---F7断层高地应力软弱围岩的地质特征及其变形特征,简要分析了支护临界失效点,围岩质量、允许变形量、变形速率和运输方式等与工序间距离的关系,具体从地质超前预报、隧道支护结构和施工方法三个方面进行探讨。研究结果:得出了高地应力软弱围岩围岩条件下,隧道施工支护参数与工序间距离确定的基本方法、一些经验参数和施工基本要求,并对施工中应注意的事项提出了建议措施。研究结论:在高地应力软弱围岩条件下进行施工,要根据掌子面围岩变化情况及时适当地调整支护参数和施工方法,才能有效地控制变形。     

进港航道通过能力经验公式的比较分析

航道通过能力是评价进港航道是否满足港口发展需要的重要指标。由于我国现行规范中对航道通过能力未给出具体计算公式，因此，在工程实践中出现了许多种不同的方法和公式。通过搜集国内外计算航道通过能力的经验公式．分析讨论各公式的特点及适用性条件。     

基于改进神经网络的路基沉降预测

为克服路基沉降预测方法的缺陷和传统BP神经网络存在的不足,采用Levenberg-Marquardt算法改进了BP神经网络的收敛性,建立了路基沉降预测模型。结合津秦客运专线路基沉降实测数据,将该优化模型与传统的BP神经网络预测模型进行了对比,计算结果表明改进后的BP神经网络在路基沉降预测中精度最高,取得了好的效果。