三维空间路线连续性衰退对公路安全性影响分析

为深入分析公路三维空间线形连续性衰退对事故频数的影响,采集广东省内3条高等级公路243 km道路设计资料,共1 768条有效事故数据,利用Tobit回归模型分析三维空间路线连续性衰退对公路安全性的影响.应用微分几何空间的基本理论,提出公路线形连续性衰退表征参数,利用Tobit回归模型对数据样本中单元内总曲率差(TCD)...     

基于RFID电子车牌数据的公交行程时间预测方法

为了给公交优先信号配时系统提供足够的"思考"时间和准确的控制依据,基于重庆市RFID电子车牌数据提出了一种采用自适应渐消卡尔曼滤波和小波神经网络组合模型动态预测公交行程时间的方法。综合分析公交行程时间的动态和静态影响因素,选取的模型输入参量为标准车流量、路段车辆平均行程时间、平均车速离散性和前班次公交行程时间。利用RFID电子车牌系统采集重庆市鹅公岩大桥路段车辆行驶数据,选取3 000组实际运行数据完成公交行程时间预测模型的训练,另筛选50组数据验证模型的有效性和准确性。研究结果表明：组合模型可动态自适应预测公交行程时间,预测值平均相对误差为3.23%,绝对误差集中在8 s左右,明显优于2种单一模型和基于传统GPS数据的公交行程时间预测模型,可认为选择RFID电子车牌数据作为组合模型的输入,能够明显改善模型预测精度;组合模型预测值的残差分布更为集中、鲁棒性较好,泛化能力强。选择平均绝对误差值、均方根误差值和平均绝对百分比误差作为模型评价指标,结果进一步表明,组合模型的综合预测效果明显优于单一的自适应渐消卡尔曼滤波和小波神经网络。研究方案可为先进公交信息化系统提供良好的技术支撑。     

Discussing the “positive utilities” of autonomous vehicles: will travellers really use their time productively?

ABSTRACT

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to reshape travel behaviour and demand in part by enabling productive uses of travel time—a primary component of the “positive utility of travel” concept—thus reducing subjective values of travel time savings (VOT). Many studies from industry and academia have assumed significant increases in travel time use and reductions in VOT for AVs. In this position paper, I argue that AVs’ VOT impacts may be more modest than anticipated and derive from a different source. Vehicle designs and operations may limit activity engagement during travel, with AV users feeling more like car passengers than train riders. Furthermore, shared AVs may attenuate travel time use benefits, and productivity gains could be limited to long-distance trips. Although AV riders will likely have greater activity participation during travel, many in-vehicle activities today may be more about coping with commuting burdens than productively using travel time. Instead, VOT reductions may be more likely to arise from a different “positive utility”—subjective well-being improvements through reduced stresses of driving or the ability to relax and mentally transition. Given high uncertainty, further empirical research on the experiential, time use, and VOT impacts of AVs is needed.     

Size effect on residual stress in low transformation temperature welded joints

It has been reported that low transformation temperature (LTT) weld metals are beneficial to generation of compressive residual stress around weld zone. In this study, the relationship among residual stress, size effect of LTT welded joints with different plate width and thickness as well as martensite start (Ms) temperatures was investigated by experimental and finite-element analysis. It was found that heat dissipation and thermal expansion coefficient of LTT weld metal had a significant impact on residual stress. Welded joint with a small plate width led to greater compressive residual stresses in the LTT weld, which was due to the lower heat dissipation and smaller thermal expansion coefficient of the LTT weld metal in due course of cooling process. Additionally, the finite-element analysis revealed that increasing plate width mainly affected the longitudinal residual stress, while increasing the plate thickness influenced all the residual stress components in the LTT weld. Furthermore, the LTT weld with a lower Ms temperature of 191 °C resulted in greater compressive residual stresses, and was less sensitive to the LTT joint size, as against the Ms temperature of 398 °C.     

Risk perception affecting the performance of shipping companies: the moderating effect of China and Korea

Risks in the shipping industry have been highlighted and have attracted significant attention, especially following the bankruptcy of Hanjin in 2017. Due to the decrease in container volume, the business environment for large shipping companies in China has deteriorated. Therefore, major large shipping companies have implemented mixed ownership reform, which provides more opportunities for large Korean shipping companies to enter the Chinese shipping industry. This study first identifies risk perception, specifically focusing on the moderating effect of Chinese and Korean shipping companies, and then demonstrates the impact of these risks on shipping company performance. The results show that market, operational, and technical risks have a negative influence on Chinese shipping companies, whereas market, policy, financial, operations, and technical risks have a negative influence on Korean shipping companies. This study contributes to the fundamental understanding of the effect of risk perception on performance among shipping companies in both countries and calls for further research on risk management plans based on the risk factors identified herein. On a practical level, this study provides an important reference for operators and investors who seek to enter strategic alliances or joint venture in Chinese shipping industry.     

复合纤维混凝土的早期抗裂性能

通过在水泥基体中加入纤维素纤维(CTF)、聚乙烯醇纤维(PF)、复合微筋纤维(VS)3种性能各异的纤维,分析了其单掺与混掺时混凝土的早期抗裂性能.结果表明:单掺时PF在3种纤维中对早期抗裂性能贡献最大,但混掺时CTF,VS可与PF形成互补,产生正混杂效应,其中CTF与PF共同遏制早期微裂纹的扩展,VS在微裂纹扩展为裂缝时发挥"桥接"作用,从而增强混凝土早期抗裂性能.研究结果可为研发高性能水泥基复合纤维材料提供参考.     

预售环境下考虑消费者时间偏好的定价与订货策略

在市场规模不确定的条件下,以最大化销售商利润为目标,综合考虑消费者时间偏好及策略型行为,构建无预售、仅预售和两阶段预售策略的定价和订货模型,得出相应的最优预售价格和订货量。此外,对无预售与2种预售策略展开对比研究,探讨预售策略实施的条件,通过数值算例分析系统参数对预售最优决策及利润的影响。研究结果表明:两阶段预售策略下最优预售价格低于现售价格,给现售阶段的最优订货量不超过无预售策略;两阶段预售策略总是优于无预售策略;当且仅当预售时长小于某一临界值时,仅预售策略才会优于无预售策略;两种预售策略的优劣取决于销售商能否有效地根据产品现售价格和采购成本设置合理的预售时长。     

考虑入射角和局部地形影响的地面地震动效应分析

本文通过建立考虑局部地形条件的场地模型,采用粘弹性理论设置人工边界,考虑入射角进行等效地震荷载输入,对五种不同地形和坡度的场地进行地面地震动效应分析。结果表明,凹状河谷地形和凸状山脊地形相比于平地地形来说对地震动具有放大效应,坡顶的地震响应要高于坡底的地震响应,地面地震动响应大致呈现与地形类似的形状,迎波面地震响应要高于背波面地震响应。     

Investigating empirical implications of hysteresis in day-to-day travel time variability

Day-to-day travel time variability plays a significant role in travel time reliability. Nowadays, travelers not only seek to minimize their travel time on average, but also value its variation. The variation in the mean and the variance of travel time (across days, for the same departure time) has not been thoroughly investigated. A temporary decrease in capacity (e.g. congestion caused by an active bottleneck) leads to a quite significant difference in the variance of travel time for congestion onset and offset periods. This phenomenon results in hysteresis loops where the departure time periods in congestion offset exhibit a higher travel time variance than the ones in congestion onset with the same mean travel time. The aim of this paper is to identify empirical implications that yield to the hysteresis phenomenon in day-to-day travel times. First, empirical hysteresis loop observations are provided from two different freeway sites. Second, we investigate the potential link with the hysteresis observed in traffic networks on macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). Third, we build a piecewise linear function that models the evolution of travel time within the day. This allows us to decompose the problem into its components, e.g. start time of congestion, peak travel time, etc. These components, along with their probability distribution functions, are employed in a Monte Carlo simulation model to investigate their partial effects on the existence of hysteresis. Correlation among critical variables is the most influential factor in this phenomenon, which should be further investigated regarding traffic flow and traffic equilibrium principles.     

绿化带对交通噪声衰减效果对比分析

选取福州市三环路的绿化带进行实验,主要以樟树与灌木、黄槐与灌木、刺桐与灌木、羊蹄甲与灌木绿化带作为研究对象,研究不同树种的郁闭度,在不同噪声强度下,各树种搭配衰减效果,进一步分析郁闭度与单位长度绿化带衰减效果的相关性。结果表明:刺桐与樟树绿化带郁闭度较高,黄槐次之,羊蹄甲郁闭度最低;黄槐的降噪效果最为明显,其次是樟树与刺桐,羊蹄甲的降噪效果最差,且噪声声级越高,绿化带衰减效果也越理想;郁闭度与噪声衰减值关系相关性较差,郁闭度需结合树木枝叶相关特征来分析整个树木的空间立体结构,进而建立与衰减效果之间关联。