水下结构声辐射时域数值分析法研究

采用有限元和无限元相结合的方法，对水下加筋圆柱壳结构的声辐射进行了数值计算。首先利用ANSYS软件建立声振模型，并在时域内计算流固耦合振动，给出可用于声学分析的数据文件；再利用SYSNOISE软件采用无限元法在时域内计算辐射声场，并将计算结果与实验值进行了对比。结果表明，提出的在时域内进行水下结构声辐射的计算是切实可行的，为水下结构声辐射仿真研究提供了新的方法。     

水面舰艇编队对潜攻击时效研究

为研究潜艇对水面舰艇编队威胁判断,需要探求水面舰艇编队对潜艇攻击的时效性.采用编队发现时间、编队有效等待时间、准备攻潜时间和武器发射命中时间来量化水面舰艇编队反潜中的对潜发现过程、有效等待过程、准备攻潜过程和武器发射命中过程,求解编队及其各个成员的威胁时间,最后采用归一化方法将威胁时间转化为攻击时效性系数.该系数能够直观表示编队对潜攻击时间上的紧迫性,便于纳入后续的潜艇对水面舰艇编队威胁判断统一计算.     

An extended generalized filter algorithm for urban expressway traffic time estimation based on heterogeneous data

Travel time estimation and its variation for urban expressways are vital to both the information provision to road users, and the system evaluation and management for traffic administrators. Fruitful research efforts have been made to develop methodologies of reconstructing spatiotemporal traffic states mainly for freeways based on one or multiple data sources. However, few studies specifically focused on urban expressways. There are more intensive merging and diverging traffic due to short distances between ramps, for example, 300–500 m. Based on the empirical analysis of traffic data collected on a typical segment of a congested urban expressway, this study proposes an extended generalized filter algorithm for the urban expressway traffic state estimation based on heterogeneous data. More specifically, the multiple sources of data include both fixed sensor data (e.g., inductive loops or radar data) and global positioning system (GPS) probe vehicle data. This study compares the proposed algorithm and the traditional algorithm for freeways using data collected on the segment of expressway in Beijing, China. Results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method, as well as its feasibility and effectiveness.     

论海上保险合同法和保险合同法的若干差异

以比较的方法，对《中华人民共和国海商法》（下称《海商法》）第12章“海上保险合同”的规定与《中华人民共和国保险法》（下称《保险法》）对财产保险合同的规定的不同之处进行了分析和论述，突出了海上保险合同法的特点，以便海上保险合同的当事人正确理解和适用有关法律。     

双探头直射检测预应力孔道病害技术

超声波双探头对测检测混凝土孔道缺陷,提出了声时系数概念,预应力孔道内不同填充物情况下声时、声程的变化.     

Distance and time in intermodal goods transport networks in Europe: A generic approach

This paper is about distance and time as factors of competitiveness of intermodal transport. It reviews the relevance of the factors, evaluates time models in practice, compares network distances and times in alternative bundling networks with geometrically varied layouts, and points out how these networks perform in terms of vehicle scale, frequency and door-to-door time. The analysis focuses on intermodal transport in Europe, especially intermodal rail transport, but is in search for generic conclusions. The paper does not incorporate the distance and time results in cost models, and draws conclusions for transport innovation, wherever this is possible without cost modelling. For instance, the feature vehicle scale, an important factor of transport costs, is analysed and discussed.Distance and time are important factors of competitiveness of intermodal transport. They generate (direct) vehicle costs and – via transport quality – indirect costs to the customers. Clearly direct costs/prices are the most important performance of the intermodal transport system. The relevance of quality performances is less clarified. Customers emphasise the importance of a good match between the transport and the logistic system. In this framework (time) reliability is valued high. Often transport time, arrival and departure times, and frequency have a lower priority. But such conclusions can hardy be generalised. The range of valuations reflects the heterogeneity of situations. Some lack of clarity is obviously due to overlapping definitions of different performance types.The following parts of the paper are about two central fields of network design, which have a large impact on transport costs and quality, namely the design of vehicle roundtrips (and acceleration of transport speed) and the choice of bundling type: do vehicles provide direct services or run in what we call complex bundling networks? An example is the hub-and-spoke network. The objective of complex bundling is to increase vehicle scale and/or transport frequency even if network volumes are restricted. Complex bundling requires intermediate nodes for the exchange of load units. Examples of complex bundling networks are the hub-and-spoke network or the line network.Roundtrip and bundling design are interrelated policy fields: an acceleration of the roundtrip speed, often desirable from the cost point of view, can often only be carried out customer friendly, if the transport frequency is increased. But often the flow size is not sufficient for a higher frequency. Then a change of bundling model can be an outcome.Complex bundling networks are known to have longer average distances and times, the latter also due to the presence of additional intermediate exchange nodes. However, this disadvantage is – inside the limits of maximal vehicle sizes – overruled by the advantage of a restricted number of network links. Therefore generally, complex bundling networks have shorter total vehicle distances and times. This expression of economies of scale implies lower vehicle costs per load unit.The last part of the paper presents door-to-door times of load units of complex bundling networks and compares them with unimodal road transport. The times of complex bundling networks are larger than that of networks with direct connections, but nevertheless competitive with unimodal road transport, except for short distances.     

Modelling cyclic container freight index using system dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the cyclical nature of container shipping market represented by a containerized freight index and proposes a predictive cyclical model of the market. In contrast to the traditional spectral analysis (univariate), system dynamics reflect the drivers of the market in both supply and demand side, and therefore, it is a multi-variate system equilibrium approach consisting of various causal spillovers from sub-components of the market. This study is the first to analyze the cycle of container market using system dynamics. By utilizing system dynamics cyclicality approach, one-step ahead predictions are generated for monthly containerized freight index and compared to conventional benchmarks for post-sample validation. Our study can also help policymakers and shipping liners for better management and invest timing of container ship.     

不同方法对南黄海重现波高计算值的影响

采用SWAN波浪模型对江苏南黄海地区1979~2018年共40 a的波况进行模拟及验证,将模拟结果与实测资料进行比对,吻合良好。百年重现波高分布通过基于年极值和月极值的广义极值分布函数(GEV)和超阈值取值方法(POT)的广义帕累托分布模型(GP)计算得出。计算结果表明,不同方法的计算结果在辐射沙洲北部地区差别最大,采用月极值所得重现波高偏小,采用年极值计算的重现波高在辐射沙洲南北外围地区最大,其余地区则以POT方法为大值。在分别采用不同数据长度计算重现波高的试验中得出,取月极值的GEV分布计算结果对时间跨度的改变不敏感,而取年极值受之影响最大,POT方法介于两者之间。     

基于水平双向作用耦合曲线梁桥地震响应分析

以深圳市某互通立交匝道桥工程为背景,针对曲线梁桥地震响应的复杂性,运用大型结构分析程序Midas/Civil建立空间有限元模型,采用动态时程法对其进行地震响应分析,研究水平地震动单向输入、双向输入时墩梁固结曲线梁桥的地震响应差异,提出墩梁固结曲线梁桥抗震设计要点。     

城乡快速干道车-人冲突时间窗预测模型

为了解决城乡快速干道车-人冲突和事故严重的问题，将车-人冲突点的分析方法扩展到车-人冲突时间窗的分析方法，构建一种行人运动轨迹实时监测和穿越时间预测相结合的车-人冲突时间窗组合预测模型。首先，分析行人违规穿越的实测数据，确定不同类别行人对应的穿越时间置信区间以及松弛时间；其次，根据运动学模型的预测结果判断行人的所属类别并初步确定行人的穿越时间，同时通过卡尔曼滤波算法对行人穿越过程进行实时监测；再次，融合运动学模型预测结果和卡尔曼滤波监测结果，确定最终的车-人冲突时间窗；最后，对所提出的组合预测模型进行标定和验证，并通过VISSIM仿真平台进行安全性能测试。模型验证结果表明：在正常情况下，该模型能够保障行人的安全且能兼顾松弛时间重置次数；在行人初始穿越速度过低或穿越前、中期存在持续低速的情况下，该模型可以通过多次松弛时间重置来解决模型的适用性问题。安全性能测试结果表明，在车辆行驶时间均值增加4.7%的情况下，安全车辆数占比增加了37.3%，车辆的后侵占时间(PET)测试值则增加53.8%。因此，与无松弛时间的预测模型相比，所提出的有松弛时间的车-人冲突时间窗预测模型能够在对交通效率影响较小的前提下，较大程度地提高车-人冲突的安全性。