基于客户价值和满意度的城市冷链物流时变路径问题

针对车辆保有量日益增加和拥堵情况日趋严重而造成的城市冷链物流时效性不强、客户价值不高、顾客满意度降低等问题，综合考虑客户价值、客户满意度以及成本等因素，提出一种城市冷链物流时变路径优化方法。考虑到冷链配送过程中不同时段的道路拥堵问题，采用分段函数刻画车辆行驶速度，并同时考虑时间窗和车辆载重量等约束，建立了多目标数学模型。使用线性加权法和主要目标法对多目标进行处理，将其转换成单目标数学模型。结合问题NP难特性，设计了单亲遗传算法对小、中、大规模算例进行了求解，结果表明：与未考虑客户价值模型相比，该模型在平均增加3.28%成本的情况下，提高14.96%的客户价值和14.64%的满意度；与未考虑成本模型相比，该模型在减少1.55%的客户价值的前提下，节约17.32%的成本；对比静态路网模型，模型减少0.92%的成本，提高6.27%的客户满意度和16.06%的客户价值。通过对目标函数中成本权重和客户价值权重进行参数分析，表明成本和客户价值之间存在明显的背反关系。     

Reliability-based network flow estimation with day-to-day variation: A model validation on real large-scale urban networks

Day-to-day variation in the travel times of congested urban transportation networks is a frustrating phenomenon to the users of these networks. These users look pessimistically at the path travel times, and learn to spend additional time to safeguard against serious penalties that await late arrivals at the destinations. These additional expenses are charges similar to the tolls in system equilibrium flow problem, but may not be collected. With this conjecture, the user equilibrium (UE) formulation of congested network flow problem would lack some necessary factors in addressing appropriate path choices. This study, following a previous work proposing pessimistic UE (PUE) flow, aims to show how to measure this additional travel cost for a link, and investigates how different is PUE from UE, and when such differences are pronounced. Data are collected from the peak-hour travel times for the links of paths in the city of Tehran, to estimate the variance of travel times for typical links. Deterministic functions are obtained by calibrating the standard deviation of the daily variations of link travel times, and probabilistic functions by the technique of copula. UE and PUE traffic assignment models are built and applied to three large cities of Mashhad, Shiraz, and Tehran in Iran. The results show that the estimated flows by PUE model replicate the observed flows in screen lines much better than the UE model, particularly for longer trips. Since PUE is computationally equivalent to UE, this improvement is attained virtually at no cost.     

基于振动成型的水泥稳定碎石抗压强度影响因素分析

为研究振动法成型水泥稳定碎石试件取代静压法的可行性,通过无侧限抗压强度试验测试了振动法成型试件的力学性能,分析讨论了相关影响因素,并通过与静压法及实际工程钻芯取样进行对比,分析了水泥稳定碎石振动成型的优势。结果发现,在提高水泥剂量的基础上,较长的振动时间能够提升水泥稳定碎石的抗压强度;同样的养生时间下,较长振动时间下形成的水泥稳定碎石的抗压强度较大;静压成型试件的抗压强度显著低于实际工程,而振动法成型试件的强度与实际工程较为接近。     

几种初至自动拾取算法在地震波法隧道超前探测中的对比分析

在地震勘探中,尤其在浅层地震勘探、层析成像和地震波法超前探测中初至时间拾取精度直接影响勘探区域地质结构的反演结果，初至时间的自动拾取也是隧道超前地质预报地震数据处理的一个关键环节。介绍4种初至自动拾取算法--最大振幅法、能量比法、STA/LTA（长短时窗比）法和AIC（峰度赤池信息量准则）法，利用云南某隧道超前地质预报采集到的1组地震数据，对4种初至自动拾取算法进行对比分析，结果显示SLA/LTA算法拾取的初至时间更为精确，AIC法、能量比法次之。进一步利用其他隧道超前地质预报采集到的几组数据进行对比分析，获得相同结论。     

ROBUST FILTERS WITH SAMPLED-DATA ESTIMATION COVARANCE CONSTRAINT FOR UNCERTAIN CONTINUOUS-TIME SYSTEMS

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The causal relationship between GDP and domestic air passenger traffic in Brazil

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger transport in Brazil, using Granger's causality test. Total domestic passenger-kilometres are used as a proxy for air transport demand and gross domestic product as a proxy for economic growth. The test spans the period from 1966 to 2006. The results lead to the acceptance of the hypothesis that there is a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from economic growth to domestic air transport demand in Brazil, having a high elasticity in the short term.     

Door-to-door travel times in RP departure time choice models: An approximation method using GPS data

A common way to determine values of travel time and schedule delay is to estimate departure time choice models, using stated preference (SP) or revealed preference (RP) data. The latter are used less frequently, mainly because of the difficulties to collect the data required for the model estimation. One main requirement is knowledge of the (expected) travel times for both chosen and unchosen departure time alternatives. As the availability of such data is limited, most RP-based scheduling models only take into account travel times on trip segments rather than door-to-door travel times, or use very rough measures of door-to-door travel times. We show that ignoring the temporal and spatial variation of travel times, and, in particular, the correlation of travel times across links may lead to biased estimates of the value of time (VOT). To approximate door-to-door travel times for which no complete measurement is possible, we develop a method that relates travel times on links with continuous speed measurements to travel times on links where relatively infrequent GPS-based speed measurements are available. We use geographically weighted regression to estimate the location-specific relation between the speeds on these two types of links, which is then used for travel time prediction at different locations, days, and times of the day. This method is not only useful for the approximation of door-to-door travel times in departure time choice models, but is generally relevant for predicting travel times in situations where continuous speed measurements can be enriched with GPS data.     

Bus running time prediction using a statistical pattern recognition technique

Abstract

Given that real-time bus arrival information is viewed positively by passengers of public transit, it is useful to enhance the methodological basis for improving predictions. Specifically, data captured and communicated by intelligent systems are to be supplemented by reliable predictive travel time. This paper reports a model for real-time prediction of urban bus running time that is based on statistical pattern recognition technique, namely locally weighted scatter smoothing. Given a pattern that characterizes the conditions for which bus running time is being predicted, the trained model automatically searches through the historical patterns which are the most similar to the current pattern and on that basis, the prediction is made. For training and testing of the methodology, data retrieved from the automatic vehicle location and automatic passenger counter systems of OC Transpo (Ottawa, Canada) were used. A comparison with other methodologies shows enhanced predictive capability.     

一种客车应急自动破窗装置的设计

随着汽车工业的发展,人们对汽车乘坐舒适性和安全性的要求日趋提高。为保证紧急时刻乘客能顺利逃生,从车窗玻璃安装方式的角度考虑,设计了一种新的客车自动破窗装置,以弥补传统破窗方式的不足。     

An improved headway-based holding strategy for bus transit

Abstract

This paper presents an improved headway-based holding strategy integrating bus transit travel and dwelling time prediction. A support vector machine-based (SVM) model is developed to predict the baseline travel and dwell times of buses based on recent data. In order to reduce prediction errors, an adaptive algorithm is used together with real-time bus operational information and estimated baseline times from SVM models. The objective of the improved holding strategy is to minimize the total waiting times of passengers at the current stop and at successive stops. Considering the time-varying features of bus running, a ‘forgetting factor’ is introduced to weight the most recent data and reduce the disturbance from unexpected incidents. Finally, the improved holding strategy proposed in this study is illustrated using the microscopic simulation model Paramics and some conclusions are drawn.