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交通流预测分析已成为智能交通的核心研究内容之一。依据混沌时间序列分析方法,建立了短时交通流的预测模型。在对实测的交通流数据进行相空间重构的基础上,综合考虑欧氏距离和均等系数,提出了最邻近点的两步优化选择方法,并采用了局部多项式拟合方法对所选取的最邻近点进行逼近以求得预测公式。本文将此方法运用于东莞东江大道流量预测,比较预测流量和实测流量,得出最大相对误差为0.445％,最小相对误差为0.038％,且单步预测时间仅为38.52秒。结果表明,该预测模型具有较高的精度,同时也能够满足实时性的要求。     

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为了描述无信号交叉口混合车流的等待延误特性，论文建立了由大小两种车型构成的混合车流的等待延误公式。本文在分析了目前无信号交叉口延误研究方法存在某些不足的基础之上，以可接受间隙理论为基础，建立了无信号交叉口大小两种车型构成的次要车流的等待延误公式。通过选取适当的参数数据，分析了次要车流等待延误与主要车流流量、次要车流不同车型比例构成的关系，结果表明该公式较为符合无信号交叉口实际情况。     

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本文将交通运输发展理论定义为一个国家或地区交通运输的发展机制、发展效率和发展模式选择的理论。在这个意义上，系统地回顾了国内关于中国交通发展研究的文献，并将国内的研究归为两类：一是综合交通发展理论，包括运输布局和运输系统分析，研究运输系统资源配置问题；二是运输适应性、运输演化及运输结构理论，研究运输与经济发展的关系问题。从研究的问题、理论和方法及理论发展的制度与经济背景做了分析和评价。     

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高速公路交通安全设施是高速公路不可缺少的基础设施,对交通安全设施系统的评价将会对有效缓解高速公路安全问题起重要作用。本文综合考虑了影响高速公路交通安全设施系统现状的因素，建立了评价指标体系，通过实例分析得出运用模糊综合评价法对其进行评价是可行的，希望此研究能为高速公路交通安全设施系统评价提供有益的参考。     

中小城市自行车交通探讨

该文通过对洛阳市交通现状进行分析,提出了自行车交通存在的问题,并指出自行车交通不管是现在还是在将来相当长时期内仍将在我国中小城市交通构造中占据重要位置,如何认识和解决自行车交通问题对未来交通的发展有重要意义。     

铁路行车调度指挥仿真系统

铁路调度指挥仿真系统是一个分布式协同工作的递阶分散自律控制系统,由决策层、管理层、执行层和设备层组成,采用部分实物仿真的方式设计模拟系统的软硬件环境。仿真系统设计的关键技术包括:进路表的自动生成算法、控制命令自动生成算法、列车车次自动追踪运行算法、列车群自动追踪运行算法、计划自动调整算法、干扰源仿真模拟和仿真时空一致性控制等。通过选取铁路实际运营的计算机联锁系统和电气集中联锁系统、车站、自动闭塞区间和计轴半自动闭塞区间线路,构建近1∶1的仿真试验环境。按照铁路行车调度指挥实际需求、相关技术标准以及现场实际投入使用的行车调度指挥系统,对仿真系统进行了功能、性能测试。对实际应用中出现的故障进行了模拟分析。结果表明:仿真系统对于实际应用系统的研发、开通运营、日后的维护和系统升级具有不可替代的作用,它能够极大地缩短开通前的调试时间,方便故障分析和各种条件下调度指挥方式的模拟,特别适合特定条件下应急预案的演练。     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.     

Induced traffic and economic appraisal

Economic appraisal of major roads in the UK is based on a set of standard procedures and conventions. A central assumption has been that the volume and pattern of traffic in any given year is independent of the quality of service offered by the network — the fixed trip matrix assumption. Failing to consider induced traffic can have serious consequences for the accuracy and robustness of the measured traffic benefits from road improvements. Assessment of the wider economic benefits of roads, which is an important political imperative for road investment, is also made more difficult. Two conclusions are reached. Variable trip matrix methods need to be introduced for the appraisal of major road schemes, and scheme appraisal needs to be complemented by a more strategic area-wide approach to evaluation. In responding to its advisory committee (SACTRA), the UK Department of Transport has accepted the first of these conclusions and is cautiously favourable to the second.     

基于滞回分配的VBR视频流量带宽管理方案

基于VBR视频流量预测提出了一种新的动态带宽分配算法———滞回算法。与Girish提出的门限算法和Youssef提出的基于GOP场景检测的带宽分配方案相比,对缓存尺寸的需求、信元丢失率等性能有明显提高。大量的仿真表明,该算法能够以较低的开销(带宽重分配次数百分比≤2%)同时兼顾了CLR和带宽利用率,而且只有在缓存队长超过迂回门限时才触发带宽重分配过程,有利于在线实现。     

大秦线开行2万t重载列车对湖东编组站到发场的影响

大秦线开行2万t重载列车,采用4台机车分散联挂的形式。湖东编组站重、空车到发场到发线的布置形式应为:2条重车线或2条空车线夹1条机走线为1束,每束到发线和机走线之间沿列车到达方向设置3处9号道岔,咽喉区至腰岔、每处腰岔和相邻的腰岔之间的有效长度为700m。以C76,C80及性能更好的适型车辆检算湖东站到发线有效长度,应达到2800m及以上。现有技术设备的特征、相邻线路技检作业分工方式、2万t重载列车的机车连挂方式、机车运用和组织方式、列车到达均衡程度、列检能力等是影响湖东站到发线通过能力的主要因素。应进一步优化和合理安排相关线路的行车组织方案,并对现行的技检作业分工方式和机车运用方案进行重新调整。采用重车方向列车在湖东站不换挂机车,各装车点到达湖东站的2万t、1万t列车均在装车地或集结地进行全面的技术检查方案。在此条件下,湖东站重车场到发线数量设置为6条基本可以适应远期大秦线运量的需求。