Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

对中国未来10年道路交通安全状况分析与初步预测

笔者从中国现代道路交通系统的发展现状与道路交通安全状况出发，以过去10多年中国汽车、摩托车保有量的发展轨迹为基础，对中国未来一定时期（2004～2015年）机动车保有量的发展变化及政府采取不同管理对策条件下的道路交通安全状况的发展水平进行了预测。结果表明：政府管理对策对道路交通安全状况变化具有决定性影响。     

交通环境对交通安全的影响及对策

交通安全涉及人、车、道路及环境等诸多因素,对交通事故的成因分析表明,驾驶员的责任是主要影响因素,其次是车辆和道路因素。但不容忽视的是,目前关于交通环境对事故影响的研究尚不够充分;交通管理部门确定事故原因也主要从人、车2 因素入手,较少涉及交通环境因素。事实上,作为事故的间接原因,交通环境常常通过间接作用影响安全,亦即不良的交通环境诱发人的不安全行为,从而导致人员违章等交通事故的发生。     

Managing transportation during highway reconstruction: A recommended process

Major highway reconstruction can cause significant disruptions to existing travel patterns and economic activity. Reducing these impacts on travelers, shippers, businesses and residents requires that innovative and effective transportation management actions be developed and implemented. This paper reports the major findings and recommendations of a research study on managing transportation during highway, reconstruction. The primary objectives of the study were

公路交通参数检测器的设计

提出了一种公路交通参数检测器的设计方案。检测器分为检测模块与处理模块两部分，利用LC并联谐振电路与锁相环工作原理，设计了基于单片计算机的检测模块；根据检测器的性能要求，设计了基于单片计算机的处理模块，完成对数据的采集、处理、存贮与传输。本检测器具有实用性好、抗噪声与防串音能力强、工作稳定度高和易于实现联网工作的优点。     

模糊逻辑推理在消除交通流诱导负效应中的应用

针对交通流诱导可能产生的负效应问题,提出了诱导负效应消除的原理和模糊逻辑推理方法。在原理设计中,考虑了出行者的出行行为对网络交通流分配的影响;在实现方法上,应用模糊推理技术对分流交通量进行了预测,并设计了路线交叉口信号灯配时方案调整的模糊控制算法,模拟结果验证了模糊逻辑推理技术的有效性。研究表明:交通流诱导负效应的产生主要是由于信息条件下的道路出行者路线选择行为的不确定性引起的,而且交通流诱导与控制同时进行是消除交通流诱导负效应产生的关键。     

Bus Priority Using pre-signals

The need to provide efficient public transport services in urban areas has led to the implementation of bus priority measures in many congested cities. Much interest has recently centred on priority at signal controlled junctions, including the concept of pre-signals, where traffic signals are installed at or near the end of a with-flow bus lane to provide buses with priority access to the downstream junction. Although a number of pre-signals have now been installed in the U.K., particularly in London, there has been very little published research into their design, operation and optimisation. This paper addresses these points through the development of analytical procedures which allow pre-implementation evaluation of specific categories of pre-signals. The paper initially sets out three categories of pre-signal, which have different operating characteristics, different requirements for signalling and different impacts on capacity and delay. Key issues concerning signalling arrangements for these categories are then discussed, together with a summary of the analytical approach adopted and the assumptions required. Equations are developed to allow appropriate signal timings to be calculated for pre-signalised intersections. Further equations are then developed to enable delays to priority and non-priority traffic, with and without pre-signals, to be estimated with delay being taken here as the key performance criterion. The paper concludes with three application examples illustrating how the equations are applied and the impacts of pre-signals in different situations.The analyses confirm the potential benefits of pre-signals, where these signals apply to non-priority traffic only. Where buses are also subject to a pre-signal, it is shown that disbenefits to buses can often occur, unless bus detectors are used to gain priority signalling.     

北京城市交通发展战略研究

本文综合分析了北京城市交通现状，运用生产力布局的理论对北京城市交通拥堵的原因进行分析，探索了国内外大城市交通发展的最新趋势，根据发展“首都经济”的要求．提出解决北京城市交通拥堵问题，必须采取标本兼治，并提出北京城市交通发展战略研究的有关建议。.     

公共交通接驳换乘系统评价指标体系的构建

依照公共交通接驳换乘系统评价指标体系的构建原则,提出评价指标体系由技术性、经济性、社会性评价指标构成,并对各指标的含义做出解释,最后以北京地铁13号线部分车站作为实例,对技术性评价指标加以应用。论述一套合理的公共交通接驳换乘系统评价指标体系如何有效解决公共交通换乘效率低的问题。     

考虑辅路缓冲的快速路紧急疏散最优控制

针对紧急疏散中单向需求激增的情况,提出利用地面辅路缓冲容纳部分疏散车流,从而降低快速路疏散的整体时空风险.基于宏观交通流模型建立了快速路疏散车流演化方程,明确了上匝道车速对主线车速的影响,从而实现经典宏观交通流模型对路网状态演变处理的一致性.针对由下匝道、地面并行道路和上匝道构成的地面辅路行程时间的二分特征,建立了相应的离散时间的流量演化方程.辅路系统方程不仅可以刻画地面辅路疏散车流的主要特征,而且能与已有快速路的状态演化系统实现无缝结合.数值分析表明,利用匝道控制和辅路分流两种手段可以实现系统整体时空疏散风险的最小化控制.