A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.     

Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

考虑空车调配协调的货物列车开行方案优化研究

为实现空车调配与货物列车开行方案协调优化，结合基本运行图架构与车流径路，构建货运时空服务拓展网络。考虑配空与装卸取送、集编发等环节的时间接续要求，节点与区段不对流空车要求，以重车流全程运送与空车配送等广义总费用最少为目标，建立整数规划弧路模型。针对既有算法设计局限性，结合重车或空车配空的时间接续要求，提出将不同的 k 短路重车流方案与空车配空方案相关联的改进可行解构造方法，设计混合差分进化求解算法。实例研究表明，考虑空车调配进行重车、空车流组织协调优化，能够减少空车走行费用，及时满足装车需求，有效保证作业车流配合中转车流集结编组及时挂线，提高方案可实施性。     

基于隧道检测钢筋分布不均状况下判定衬砌结构安全性应用研究

近年来隧道内出现的越来越多的质量安全事故,引起各方高度重视,相应的最适宜隧道主体工程衬砌质量控制的地质雷达无损检测方法被广泛应用。通过雷达无损检测可揭露出衬砌内欠厚、脱空、钢筋分布不均等大量各类型缺陷,针对欠厚脱空等缺陷制定的注浆或开窗等治理措施是目前工程中常见的整改闭合工序,但钢筋分布不均对结构安全影响如何判定,怎么界定处理尚无成熟方案与规定。本文针对隧道项目中实际检测出的钢筋分布不均缺陷,在不宜大范围扰动结构及围岩进行整治的情况下,以及在避免其他问题共存等不利因素的前提下,应用有限元数值模拟计算分析强度安全系数,并结合现场外观等综合因素对衬砌结构安全性进行分析判定研究。     

On the variance of recurrent traffic flow for statistical traffic assignment

This paper generalizes and extends classical traffic assignment models to characterize the statistical features of Origin-Destination (O-D) demands, link/path flow and link/path costs, all of which vary from day to day. The generalized statistical traffic assignment (GESTA) model has a clear multi-level variance structure. Flow variance is analytically decomposed into three sources, O-D demands, route choices and measurement errors. Consequently, optimal decisions on roadway design, maintenance, operations and planning can be made using estimated probability distributions of link/path flow and system performance. The statistical equilibrium in GESTA is mathematically defined. Its multi-level statistical structure well fits large-scale data mining techniques. The embedded route choice model is consistent with the settings of O-D demands considering link costs that vary from day to day. We propose a Method of Successive Averages (MSA) based solution algorithm to solve for GESTA. Its convergence and computational complexity are analyzed. Three example networks including a large-scale network are solved to provide insights for decision making and to demonstrate computational efficiency.     

基于响应面和遗传算法的柴油机瞬态过程喷油参数优化

基于台架试验数据,利用响应面法建立了某工程机械用柴油机瞬态过程喷油参数与性能的近似高精度模型,基于此模型采用遗传算法对瞬态过程喷油参数分别进行离线优化研究。结果表明:采用单目标优化确定的燃油消耗率(BSFC)、NO_x比排放量和颗粒质量(PM)比排放量的优化极限分别可达180.23g/(kW·h),8.92g/(kW·h)和0.011 8g/(kW·h),相对原机可降低多达4.5%,34.0%和37.3%。双目标优化的Pareto解集表明,相比于同时优化BSFC和NO_x比排放量,BSFC和PM比排放量更容易同时得到优化。采用权重因子适应度函数的三目标优化结果对应的BSFC,NO_x比排放量及PM比排放量分别为184.70g/(kW·h),12.62g/(kW·h)和0.012 2g/(kW·h),较原机分别降低2.1%,6.6%和35.3%。改进优化模型后,性能优化Pareto解集对应的BSFC和PM比排放量水平都非常接近其优化极限,但NO_x比排放量相对其优化极限仍然较高。     

现代大学生公寓电气设计浅析

文章采用文献资料、归纳与综合、专家访谈等研究方法,对现代大学生公寓电气设计进行了系统研究,主要内容包括配电系统、负荷系统、防雷接地、消防系统和智能化五个方面,旨为大学生公寓的电气设计提供有益资讯．     

高速公路中收费和清分的动态解决方案

在高速公路收费和清分过程中,由于新增的高速公路和收费站点特别是环型路段的增加使得原有的静态算法已经不适宜于现实情况。本文提出了高速公路中基于最短路径和环型路段的动态收费和清分解决方案,并给出了详细的基于环型路段的动态算法。环型路段问题解决后,可以判知车辆实际行车路线,从而大幅提高收费及清分的准确性和效率。     

基于时间约束的铁路空车调配系统可靠性分析

为弥补现有铁路空车调配系统缺乏空车调配可靠性研究的缺陷,在传统空车调配优化模型的基础上,本文提出了一种新的基于时间约束的空车调配可靠性分析方法。通过深入分析铁路空车调配过程,建立效益最大化目标函数,生成约束条件,以规定时间内的实际到达空车数与需求空车数之比计算出各需求站的空车调配可靠性,再利用各需求站可靠性均值求解空车调配系统的可靠性。最后,使用LINGO软件进行算例分析,论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

船舶电力系统暂态稳定性的混合分析法

针对大型船舶电力系统的特点及其日益突出的暂态稳定性问题,开展了适用于船舶电力系统的方法研究。结合船舶电网拓扑结构自身特点,建立了适用于大扰动下暂态稳定分析的船舶柴油发电机组的动态等值模型、推进电机及其螺旋桨四象限工作特性等值模型。以船舶电网轴线为界,将系统等效成两机模型进行时域仿真分析,在此基础上建立系统能量函数,提出了一种适用于船舶电力系统的暂态稳定性混合分析法。该方法即可定量描述系统暂态稳定性及其稳定裕度,又可直观地在线监测系统各状态变量的动态过程。最后通过仿真算例验证了新方法的正确性和有效性。