Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

An exploratory study on the Northern Sea Route as an alternative shipping passage

This qualitative inductive research explores the potential benefits for the Scandinavian economy and ports through the implementation of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative for container shipping to the established Southern route through the Suez Canal. To extract expert’s opinions and address these objectives, we utilised in-depth face-to-face semi-structured interviews through purposive sampling in a single case study setting. The analysis of the data demonstrates that the commercialisation of NSR can yield benefits for the Scandinavian economy (e.g. GDP increase, jobs creation) and reveals the benefits of Scandinavian ports (e.g. ECA’s, flexibility, hinterland, etc.) compared to other ports in North West Europe, which potentially grasp the NSR as an opportunity. However, it is highlighted that this can only be achieved if Scandinavian countries are proactive and secure their involvement.     

Bike route choice modeling using GPS data without choice sets of paths

Concerned by the nuisances of motorized travel on urban life, policy makers are faced with the challenge of making cycling a more attractive alternative for everyday transportation. Route choice models can help achieve this objective by gaining insights into the trade-offs cyclists make when choosing their routes and by allowing the effect of infrastructure improvements to be analyzed. We estimate a link-based bike route choice model from a sample of GPS observations in the city of Eugene on a network comprising over 40,000 links. The so-called recursive logit (RL) model (Fosgerau et al., 2013) does not require to sample any choice set of paths. We show the advantages of this approach in the context of prediction by focusing on two applications of the model: link flows and accessibility measures. Compared to the path-based approach which requires to generate choice sets, the RL model proves to make significant gains in computational time and to avoid paradoxical accessibility measure results discussed in previous works, e.g. Nassir et al. (2014).     

管道输煤工程中煤浆沉降特性的应用分析

文中对煤浆沉降特性进行了详细分析,结论表明质量分数和粒度是影响煤浆颗粒沉降速度的主要因素。然后,从煤浆沉降特性角度出发,总结了管道输煤工程中煤浆制备、筛检超粗颗粒、煤浆储存、长距离管道输送以及终端脱水等环节需采取的相应措施及要求,为煤浆输送管道安全、经济、可靠地运行提供参考。     

封堵三通卡球原因分析及封堵设备改进设计

文中简述了某天然气管道A站-B站段内检测通球过程中封堵三通处出现的卡堵问题,结合通球、封堵等工程实践,对卡球原因进行了分析,发现了塞堵的设计缺陷,通过理论计算提出了塞堵的优化设计,解决了塞堵无旋转限位的问题,并对优化设计后期实践应用可能存在的问题提出了解决办法,对天然气管道带压封堵、通球,提高输气效率等具有参考意义。     

透空式防波堤透浪的数值模拟

基于FLUENT求解器,以N-S方程为控制方程,采用动量源方法及追踪自由面的VOF方法,建立了同时具有造波和消波功能的数值波浪水槽。利用该数值水槽对透空堤的透浪、越浪问题进行数值模拟,并与物理模型试验进行比较,结果表明:数值模拟能较好地复演防波堤越浪、透浪过程。     

论信息网络传播权

2001修订的《著作权法》增加了信息网络传播权,弥补了法律上的空白,为法院审理有关著作权纠纷提供了法律依据。本文在阐述信息网络传播权的内涵、特征的基础上,对法律没有明确规定的信息网络传播权的保护和限制问题进行探讨,以加强和完善我国著作权法对信息网络传播权的保护。     

基于S注入法的自闭贯通线路故障定位系统

将S注入法和无线传输节点相结合，利用传感器网络的自组网功能以及高容错性构建了无线节点通信网络．提出了采用传感器网络技术的铁路自闭贯通线故障定位系统．该系统由信号注入装置、无线节点、开关站无线处理单元和智能故障信息处理系统构成．通过无线节点检测注入信号．智能故障信息处理系统接收无线节点传来的检测结果，并判断故障位置．注入信号的电源为恒流源，频率范围为220～320Hz．设计了并列方式和交错方式两种检测节点的布置方案．这两种方式均能满足信息传输可靠性的要求，但并列方式的系统可靠性比交错方式提高了2倍．该系统定位精度可根据需要调整．     

轨道交通乘客个性化出行路径规划算法

随着城市轨道交通网络的不断完善,可供乘客选择的轨道交通出行路径日益 增加,乘客出行路径决策愈加复杂.本文在分析轨道交通服务水平变量对不同属性乘客出 行路径选择行为影响的基础上,提出轨道交通乘客个性化出行路径规划算法.首先,基于 非集计理论构建针对不同类别乘客的路径选择模型,该模型综合考虑乘车时间、换乘时 间、换乘次数、车内拥挤度及个人属性等因素对乘客路径选择行为的影响.其次,基于不同 类别乘客的路径选择行为差异,构建考虑车内拥挤度变化的乘客个性化出行路径动态规 划算法,为不同属性乘客规划广义出行时间最小的路径.最后,基于广州地铁数据对算法 进行验证.结果表明,该算法针对乘客个人属性规划的最优出行路径,更加贴合乘客的出 行心理.     

先进出行信息下事故对行程时间可靠性的影响

定义路径行程时间可靠性为在交通事故期间内平均路径行驶时间小于事故前路径出行时间乘以可接受拥堵水平的概率,由此导出路网行程时间可靠性.假定事故持续时间服从正态分布并将研究时域划分成相同的时段,在先进出行信息下,利用元胞传输模型进行路段流量加载,给出了每一个时段内路径行程时间的递推式,并在每一个时段内更新1次路径出行时间,出行者根据更新的出行时间运用Logit模型进行路径决策,最后基于Monte-Carlo法模拟求解路网行程时间可靠性.算例结果表明,行程时间可靠性随事故持续时间和方差及需求的增加而减小;可靠性随可接受拥堵水平的增加而增加;在拥堵网络中,包含事故路段的OD间需求越高,可靠性越低.