Understanding members' carsharing (activity) persistency by using econometric model

Carsharing is an innovative travel alternative that has recently experienced considerable growth and become part of sustainable transportation initiatives. Although carsharing is becoming increasingly a popular alternative transportation mode in North America, it is still an under‐researched area. Current research is aimed at better understanding of the behavior of carsharing users. For every member, a two‐stage approach microsimulates the probability of being active in any month using a binary probit model and given that a particular member is active during a month, the probability of that member using the service multiple times using a random utility‐based model. The model is estimated using empirical data from one of the largest carsharing companies in North America. The model estimates reveal that the activity persistency of members is positively linked to previous behaviors for up to 4 months, and that the influence of previous months weakens over time. It also shows that some attributes of the traveler (gender, age, and language spoken at home) impact his or her behaviors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain

This study analyses of the determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain using data from the 1995-2006 National Travel Surveys (NTSs). The main objective is to determine the effects of socio-economic, demographic and geographic factors on long distance travel. The estimated models express the distance travelled for long distance journeys as a function of income, gender, age, employment status, household characteristics, area of residence, size of municipality, type of residence and length of time living in the area. A time trend is also included to capture common changes in long distance travel over time not included in the explanatory variables. Separate models are estimated for total travel, travel by each of four modes (car, rail, coach and air), travel by five purposes (business, commuting, leisure, holiday and visiting friends and relatives (VFRs)) and two journey lengths (<150 miles and 150+ miles one way), as well as the 35 mode-purpose-distance combinations.The results show that long distance travel is strongly related to income: air is most income-elastic, followed by rail, car and finally coach. This is the case for most journey purposes and distance bands. Notable is the substantial difference in income elasticities for rail for business/commuting as opposed to holiday/leisure/VFR. In addition, the income elasticity for coach travel is very low, and zero for the majority of purpose-distance bands, suggesting coach travel to be an inferior mode in comparison to car, rail and air. Regarding journey distance, we find that longer distance journeys are more income elastic than shorter journeys.For total long distance travel, the study indicates that women travel less than men, the elderly less than younger people, the employed and students more than others, those in one adult households more than those in larger households and those in households with children less than those without. Long distance travel is also lowest for individuals living in London and greatest for those in the South West, and increases as the size of the municipality declines.     

On the income elasticity of the value of travel time

Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13 year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time.     

Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour

Three weather sensitive models are used to explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data are restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of selecting among five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels.     

四面六边透水框架自动同步抛投装置与工艺

针对四面六边透水框架抛投效率低、成本高、准确度低、存在安全隐患等问题,建立四面六边透水框架抛投漂移距离的数学模型,得出抛投高度、水深、水流速度、透水框架阻水面积等参数对漂移距离的影响规律。提出一种大框架、多转轴的空中自动同步脱钩抛投吊具,增加每次抛投透水框架的数量,并采用GPS引导抛投船舶精准定位,对抛投作业过程进行实时控制。结果表明,此种抛投装置可提高透水框架抛投的准确性,且提高施工效率。     

卵石层小净距隧道关键参数研究

针对卵石地层小净距隧道围岩整体性与稳定性差、施工中易坍塌、围岩相互扰动大的问题,通过FLAC 3D数值模拟和现场监测,对卵石层小净距隧道左右洞合理净距和先后行洞掌子面安全纵向间距进行了研究。得到如下结论： 1）当净距不大于6 m时,隧道地表沉降槽呈“V形”,沉降最大点位于中夹岩顶部;随着净距大于6 m,隧道拱顶部位地表沉降逐渐超过中夹岩顶部,地表沉降槽呈 “W形”。2）当2洞间净距不大于6 m（约1倍洞跨）时,2洞开挖后围岩压力叠加效应明显,极易发生失稳;当隧道净距大于18 m时,可按分离式隧道进行设计; 3）随着先后行洞间掌子面纵向距离的增加,后行洞施工对先行洞的影响逐渐减少,当纵向间距达到30 m（4.6倍洞跨）时,这种影响基本可以不予考虑。     

主动声自导鱼雷极限射距主要影响因素仿真研究

在鱼雷攻击中适宜的射距是确保鱼雷命中目标的关键之一,在使用鱼雷时必须确保所采用的射距在极限射距之内,因此在射击条件已知的前提下,要确定极限射距并且熟悉影响其值大小的主要因素及各因素的影响规律。依据主动声自导鱼雷的射击模型,建立起极限射距的表达式,进而得出影响其值大小的主要因素。通过仿真对各影响因素进行定量研究,找出它们对极限射距的影响规律。此研究可为指挥员在作战使用时提供必要的参考,以期充分灵活地利用研究成果,提高主动声自导鱼雷的命中概率。     

空气层结对港口细煤粉污染扩散的影响分析

通过分析空气层结对港口细煤粉扩散的影响,得出离源0.5 km处稳定层结、中性层结及不稳定层结3种层结条件下污染物的浓度峰值分别为1.3 mg/m',0.27 mg/m'和0.02 mgW,同时得出5.5 m/s,7 m/s两种风速条件下的污染物浓度峰值.结果表明,湍流处于不稳定层结时,浓度分布峰值相对较小;随着层结逐渐...     

基于乘客路径选择的多制式轨道交通客流分配

为量化换乘对乘客出行路径选择的影响程度,在单层网络中添加虚拟换乘站,构建无隐性连接的三层多制式轨道交通拓扑网络模型.基于时间、换乘节点衔接性,计算线网间衔接性系数;利用Dijkstra法搜索模型各起讫点间的K短路径,以乘客感受到的线网复杂度及乘客出行计划确定时间,建立乘客对线网的熟悉度函数;根据乘客路径选择影响因素构建...     

信号交叉口行车风险场建立及车辆通行行为优化

随着汽车逐步向智能化、网联化发展,智能网联车辆逐步进入实际应用阶段。进行智能网联车辆的通行行为优化,对提升驾驶安全性和行车效率,避免事故发生和交通拥堵至关重要。车辆在通过交叉口时将受到很多环境及运动因素的影响,而现有的通行优化模型难以准确表达各类因素共同作用下的行驶环境。为此,基于风险场理论建立由环境场和运动场组成的信号交叉口行车风险场,表征信号交叉口中每点的实时行车风险程度,从而引导车辆驶向风险值低点,并提供下一步长的位移及速度指引,实现车辆的动态轨迹优化及速度控制。典型场景下的仿真结果表明：在优化模型的控制下单车的信号交叉口通行效率明显提升,其中直行方向车辆单车平均通行效率提升最高,平均提升6.35%,通过对交叉口面积内所有车辆进行通行行为优化,交叉口通行效率提升了9.3%,这表明所建模型可以准确表达交叉口行车环境并优化车辆通行行为。研究结论可应用于自动驾驶车辆的交叉口通行控制,并为网联环境下的行车环境表达和安全驾驶控制提供模型基础。