港口融资体制现状及多元化融资模式

港口是水运的基础设施,与一般基础设施不同,港口是国家控制的交通基础设施,具有巨大的社会经济效益;港口特定的区域性、排他性、竞争性,使港口呈现出投资主体多元化的趋势,合理融资已经成为港口基础设施重要问题。文中从港口基础设施及其作用入手,探索我国港口融资现状和多元化发展趋势,借鉴国外港口融资成功经验,提出地主港模式的多元化融资模式。     

基于旅游吸引力的公路布局研究——以阿坝州旅游公路规划为例

旅游吸引力是旅游资源开发的核心竞争力。基于旅游吸引力的公路规划布局,能提高区域旅游资源的利用效率,是一种新的公路规划布局思路。鉴于此,将GIS技术与旅游资源评价模型、旅游吸引力评价模型相结合,对区域内旅游吸引力进行分析,结果表明,旅游吸引力越高的地方,公路建设对旅游发展的贡献越大。最后以阿坝州为例进行实证分析,认为阿坝州公路规划能满足重点景区旅游发展的需要。     

Nonlinear dynamic behaviour of a railway wheelset

Nonlinear dynamic systems are well known to contain certain characteristic additional phenomena compared with linear systems. One example is the fact that nonlinear systems can have multiple stable solutions for one set of parameters. In that case, which one of the multiple stable solutions will be realised will depend on the initial conditions. From the domains of initial conditions which are domains of attraction, probabilities of occurrence of the stable solutions can be calculated. The described dynamical behaviour is studied in the present paper using two examples. To introduce the basic phenomena, the well-known academic Duffing oscillator with harmonic excitation is considered. Domains of attraction are shown for the two stable solutions and the probability of occurrence of the two solutions in the case of equally distributed initial conditions is calculated. The main example to be considered in this paper is the railway wheelset, which is known to show (depending on the nonlinearities in the model) a subcritical Hopf bifurcation depending on the vehicle speed. In that case a range of speeds exists, where a stable trivial solution and a stable limit cycle solution coexist in addition to an unstable limit cycle solution. Again domains of attraction of the two stable solutions are calculated and their dependence on the vehicle speed is shown. The probabilities of occurrence of the two stable solutions are calculated, where special interest is given to the probability of occurrence of the undesired limit cycle solution.     

Passenger rail in North America in the light of developments in Western Europe and Japan

Because of different geo‐demographic and economic conditions, the impact of the new passenger modes (road and air) on rail travel was much larger in North America than in Europe. In 1960s and 1970s, as the railway share of intercity traffic in North America shrunk to a negligible one or two percent, the passenger trains were abandoned by private railway companies and taken over by state organizations, which have continued to operate traditional trains and generate mounting losses. On the technology side, no attempts have been made to improve competitiveness of trains vis‐a‐vis automobiles and airplanes.

In Europe and Japan, the railways responded to the challenge by (i) upgrading the performance (speed) and comfort of traditional trains operating on existing tracks and (ii) developing trains which could, on short and intermediate range distances, compete successfully, in terms of speed and economy, with the road and air modes. The Japanese (Shinkansen trains) and French (TGV trains) experience clearly shows that trains operating on dedicated lines at average speeds of 150 to 200 km/hr provide a superior transportation service and economy on high‐traffic intercity routes of up to about 500 km length. In this paper the factors responsible for the present status of passenger rail in North America are analysed, the current policies in the U.S. and Canada are evaluated in the light of experience to date and developments abroad, and suggestions for a long‐term passenger rail policy are made. This includes examination of (i) the viability of continued subsidization of traditional train services, (ii) the viability of operation of faster trains on existing tracks, (iii) the scope for introduction of modern, fast trains on dedicated lines in high‐density, intercity corridors, (iv) the application of fast trains as access to major airports and integration of airports with fast intercity lines, and (v) the impact of energy (oil) consumption in transportation.

     

路段重要度法进行公路网交通量分配的进一步探讨

针对总量控制法中路段重要度交通分配法存在的缺陷,将节点的交通发生强度及交通吸引强度应用于路段重要度分配模型,从而更加真实地反映了节点的社会经济、土地使用特性对交通分配的影响,使交通分配的精度提高,进一步完善了总量控制法理论。     

区域公路交通发生吸引量影响因素探讨

为提高交通发生吸引量的预测精度,采用逐步回归法进行自变量选取,提出了新的交通量影响因素,并以长三角苏锡常地区的客货车交通发生吸引量预测为例进行了分析.     

智能公交系统运营优化数据库建立方法探讨

城市公共交通运输是城市客流运输的主要形式之一,智能公交系统是公共交通的发展趋势.在分析智能公交系统数据处理流程和公共交通客流采集技术的基础上,研究了智能公交客流基本数据采集技术,探讨了常规公交、轨道交通和出租车交通客流的筛选分析方法.     

Truck trip generation in small- and medium-sized urban areas

This paper describes procedures to develop truck trip generation (TTG) rates for small- and medium-sized urban areas and its implications. Ordinary least squares models are used to develop separate truck production and attraction equations with the number of employees as the independent variable for three industrial groups – retail, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing. Results from this research indicate that number of employees is a statistically significant predictor, and has significant explanatory power in predicting the number of truck trips produced and attracted. The rates developed in this study are also found to be significantly different from rates developed in other studies with the implication that caution needs to be taken when transferring TTG rates. The rates are applied in a travel demand model as the initial step of incorporating truck traffic into the modeling process.     

基于用户个性的微博网络传播模型研究

微博的转发过程易受各种因素影响,构建合理、完善的传播模型准确描述信息的传播过程,对网络舆论的预测和引导具有重要的支撑作用.本文从信息传播规则和网络拓扑结构2个角度建立信息传播模型,并将用户个性作为影响因素纳入到模型当中,在实际微博拓扑子网中模拟信息的转发过程.仿真结果表明用户个性对信息扩散的影响作用明显,信息吸引力临界值在不同类型个体居多的网络中会发生变化,并且不同个性用户对信息扩散的影响作用是不同的,自主型个体对信息扩散具有很强的推动力,中立型个体次之,无主见型个体最差.     

基于出行规律的高峰小时客流OD矩阵快速估算方法

为了快速准确地计算城市交通高峰小时客流OD矩阵,提出一种简单易行的推算方法。该方法近似认为城市出行均为由家出行,从而将交通产生-吸引矩阵分解为一个由家出发的OD矩阵和一个返回家里的OD矩阵,通过调查交通高峰小时系数,将由家出发的OD矩阵与返回家里的OD矩阵按一定比例进行叠加即得到高峰小时客流OD矩阵,并应用该方法进行了算例分析。结果表明:该方法简单易行,抓住了出行的主要规律,可省去大规模的调查,具有一定的科学性与准确性,在潍坊市滨海交通客流规模预测研究中得到了较好的应用。