快速道路公交和城市轨道交通关键参数比较及相关问题探讨

对快速道路公交和城市轨道交通系统的规划和建设时间、基建费用和运营成本、票费收支比、补贴和投融资、载客量、速度和灵活性、能源消耗等关键参数进行了分析比较.指出快速道路公交在费用、灵活性和建设周期上具有较大优势,轨道交通系统在载客能力、环境景观和服务水平上更有优势,还可以充分利用地下空间.在层次分析法框架下讨论了发展快速公共交通的决策准则.提出了快速道路公交和轨道交通的两种组合模式:快速道路公交作为轨道交通的补充和延伸,提高公共交通的覆盖率和服务水平;快速道路公交作为轨道交通发展的过渡阶段,先发展快速道路公交,培育客流,待轨道交通建成后再将快速道路公交路权返还给社会车辆.     

基于岩体指标和掘进参数的TBM净掘进速率预测模型

净掘进速率是TBM施工速度的主要评价指标,与围岩物理力学性质、TBM掘进参数之间存在一定相关性。文章以兰州水源地建设工程输水隧洞双护盾TBM施工为背景,基于现场实测数据,选择岩石单轴抗压强度、抗拉强度、变形模量、泊松比、岩石耐磨性CAI值等岩体指标,以及刀盘推力和刀盘转速等掘进参数,进行TBM净掘进速率与有关影响参数之间的单因素相关性分析,得到相应拟合公式;基于TBM净掘进速率与岩体指标、掘进参数之间的相关性,利用多元非线性回归方法建立了TBM净掘进速率预测模型。通过将兰州水源地建设工程输水隧洞实测TBM净掘进速率和预测结果进行对比,验证了TBM净掘进速率预测模型的合理性。研究结果表明:(1)在复杂的多种地质条件下,TBM净掘进速率与岩石单轴抗压强度、抗拉强度、变形模量、岩石耐磨性CAI值、刀盘推力以及刀盘转速呈负相关关系,与泊松比呈正相关关系;(2)干湿状态对岩石耐磨性CAI值有一定影响,饱和状态下岩石耐磨性CAI值与TBM净掘进速率之间的相关性更显著;(3)建立的多元非线性回归预测模型,预测精度较高,可为相似地质条件下TBM净掘进速率估算提供参考。     

全断面富水砂层浅埋盾构隧道下穿平房群施工参数研究

盾构在富水砂层中掘进时,容易出现喷涌、地表沉降大、流砂等现象,给掘进施工带来很多问题和困难,尤其是在全断面富水砂层中掘进时,如何控制盾构施工参数显得极其重要。文章结合广州地铁21号线水西站—长平站盾构区间隧道工程实例,考虑了工程实践中盾构穿越全断面富水砂层且下穿薄弱基础的水西村民房建筑的情况,进行了盾构施工措施及试验段掘进参数分析,确定了盾构下穿水西村民房建筑的施工参数。监测结果表明:参数实际控制值与分析拟定值接近,地表沉降可以控制在5 mm内,房屋沉降可以控制在10 mm内,验证了参数选取的正确性。盾构在全断面富水砂层中下穿平房群时,实际土舱压力高于静止土压力,同步注浆量不低于1.6倍的理论值,提高土压力和推力可以有效降低平房群的沉降值。     

Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew

This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.     

基于时空特性和组合深度学习的交通流参数估计

为深入挖掘交通流时空特性,提高交通流参数估计精度,基于深度学习提出一种交通流参数估计的组合方法.根据目标断面及其上游断面的交通流数据构造输入矩阵,利用卷积神经网络捕捉交通流的空间特性,使用长短期记忆和门控循环神经网络挖掘交通流的时间特性,组合3种深度学习方法所得输出,得到交通流参数估计值.采用中国安徽省合肥市和美国加州...     

双索悬索桥自振特性分析

以黄河大峡水库下游某双索悬索桥为工程背景,引入只受拉三维拉索单元,采用考虑几何非线性的子空间迭代法对其自振特性进行了分析,理论值与实测值能较好的吻合,说明了该空间非线性有限元分析方法的正确性;进而与相同跨径和结构参数的单索悬索桥的自振频率、振型进行了对比分析,结果表明双索悬索桥能有效提高桥梁一阶竖弯振动频率,为双索悬索桥结构设计理论提供了动力性能方面的依据.     

潮汐河口淹没丁坝群坝田淤积特征及成因分析

潮汐河口淹没丁坝群坝田水动力条件复杂多变,坝田复杂的水流结构决定了坝田内的泥沙淤积过程及淤积形态。以长江口北槽丁坝群形成坝田为例,分析坝田形成后淤积形态及淤积速率特征和规律。分析结果表明:随着时间推移,坝田内2 m等深线逐渐向距坝头0. 2倍坝长处靠近,5 m等深线逐渐向坝头处靠近;坝田的初始容积与冲淤平衡时的平衡容积呈对数关系;在丁坝间距为3～4倍坝长时,坝田内淤积分布最为均衡;坝田内淤积速率的拐点均出现在坝田形成后5～6 a。另外,从工程影响淤积丁坝布置参数方面探讨坝田内淤积特征的成因。     

基于高雷诺数的并联双圆柱绕流研究

文章采用基于边界瞬时涡量守候的拉格朗日方法(IVCBC),结合并列双圆柱的特点,建立了双圆柱绕流数值计算模型。对高雷诺数下Re=6×10~4,间隙率为T/D=1.1~7的并联圆柱双圆柱二维绕流特性进行了研究。提出了双圆柱间隙中点的速度区别宽窄尾流的新方法。分别讨论了流体力系数随间距增加的特点,脉动流体力的特点,尾流特征以及斯托哈尔数特征。研究发现:区别宽窄尾流的新方法是可靠的;在双圆柱尾流附近有五种尾流模型存在;同时发现了在宽窄尾流的频率,存在一个中间频率。     

船用大功率两级人字齿行星传动系统的振动特性研究

单级行星传动的动态特性已有很多学者研究,但特大型机械装置(如舰船)中应用的两级人字齿行星传动的动态特性研究还未见报导。为此文章在两级人字齿行星齿轮系统的弯扭耦合动力学方程的基础上,对此行星齿轮系统进行了自由振动的动态特性分析,揭示出两级人字齿行星传动的三种振动模式:星形轮系振动模式、行星轮系振动模式和耦合振动模式,并对三种振动模式进行了特征值问题和模态问题的研究,得到了系统固有频率和振型之间的相互关系,为进一步的动态特性分析奠定了理论基础。     

VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation

Globalization, greenhouse gas emissions and energy concerns, emerging vehicle technologies, and improved statistical modeling capabilities make the present moment an opportune time to revisit aggregate vehicle miles traveled (VMT), energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasting for passenger transportation. Using panel data for the 48 continental states during the period 1998-2008, the authors develop simultaneous equation models for predicting VMT on different road functional classes and examine how different technological solutions and changes in fuel prices can affect passenger VMT. Moreover, a random coefficient panel data model is developed to estimate the influence of various factors (such as demographics, socioeconomic variables, fuel tax, and capacity) on the total amount of passenger VMT in the United States. To assess the influence of each significant factor on VMT, elasticities are estimated. Further, the authors investigate the effect of different policies governing fuel tax and population density on future energy consumption and GHG emissions. The presented methodology and estimation results can assist transportation planners and policy-makers in determining future energy and transportation infrastructure investment needs.