内河通航标准(GBJ139-90)的应用体会

内河通航标准(GBJ139—90)(以下简称《标准》)为航道部门对跨(过)、拦、临河建筑物的审批提供了强有力的法律依据,其作用相当明显,本文简要介绍《标准》的应用体会。     

Modelling daily activity program generation considering within-day and day-to-day dynamics in activity-travel behaviour

This paper presents a comprehensive econometric modelling framework for daily activity program generation. It is for day-specific activity program generations of a week-long time span. Activity types considered are 15 generic categories of non-skeletal and flexible activities. Under the daily time budget and non-negativity of participation rate constraints, the models predict optimal sets of frequencies of the activities under consideration (given the average duration of each activity type). The daily time budget considers at-home basic needs and night sleep activities together as a composite activity. The concept of composite activity ensures the dynamics and continuity of time allocation and activity/travel behaviour by encapsulating altogether the activity types that are not of our direct interest in travel demand modelling. Workers’ total working hours (skeletal activity and not a part of the non-skeletal activity time budget) are considered as a variable in the models to accommodate the scheduling effects inside the generation model of non-skeletal activities. Incorporation of previous day’s total executed activities as variables introduces day-to-day dynamics into the activity program generation models. The possibility of zero frequency of any specific activity under consideration is ensured by the Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions used for formulating the model structure. Models use the concept of random utility maximization approach to derive activity program set. Estimations of the empirical models are done using the 2002–2003 CHASE survey data set collected in Toronto.

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为了探讨拥挤收费对城市居民出行行为的影响,提出了考虑收费的非集计交通方式分担模型,推导了乘客的理解期望收费效用。根据实例测试证明了模型的可用性,进行了收费费率对交通方式分担结构影响的敏感度分析。结果表明,城市交通拥挤收费将影响出行者的交通方式选择行为和满意度,造成城市交通方式分担结构的变化;理解期望效用随收费费率的增加而增大,达到某一值后保持不变,而出行者对拥挤收费的满意度均为负值,并随着出行者对收费认知的不同而以不同的速度减小。     

基于出行里程分布的PHEV平均燃油消耗计算方法

本文中提出了一种根据车队出行里程分布来计算插电式混合动力汽车(PHEV)车队的平均油耗的方法,并利用北京市区乘用车出行里程分布,计算了丰田Prius Plug-in、通用Volt和菲斯科Karma在北京地区使用的平均油耗。结果表明,3种车型在北京市区的平均100km油耗分别为3.37、1.83和3.91L;其中Prius Plug-in和Volt的平均油耗比传统车丰田Corolla分别降低58.47%和77.45%;该方法可用于计算PHEV车队的平均油耗和单个PHEV在某段较长时间内使用的平均油耗。     

基于多层Logit模型的货物运输链选择研究

以物流运输活动中不同货物运输链的选择为研究对象,建立了多层Logit模型进行具体地研究.以效用理论为基础,分析了不同运输链中运输方式的各种影响因素,按照运输方式的特点,将运输链分为多方式和单一方式两大类,并在此分类基础上建立了二层的选择树模型.利用调查数据对模型效用函数的参数进行了标定,并对参数的标定结果进行了验证.最后,通过具体实例证实了多层Logit模型在货物运输链选择研究中的实用性和有效性.     

综合管廊U型盾构机械化施工工法研究与应用

为解决传统明挖法、矿山法、盾构法和顶管法在综合管廊施工中存在的不足和局限,根据国内管廊工程建设环境特点,通过分析传统管廊施工方法的优点和不足,结合装配式建筑的发展趋势,创新性地提出U型盾构机械化施工工法。该工法将明挖法开挖与在盾壳内完成主体预制拼装结构相结合,通过研制相应装备将传统固定支护结构转变为刚性可移动支护结构,实现了明挖法管廊施工的机械化、标准化和规范化。介绍U型盾构工法的原理、适用范围、工艺流程、操作要点和节点处理,对比U型盾构与传统明挖支护结构的受力特点和对周边环境的影响,分析U型盾构适用范围及其工法优势; 通过海口市椰海大道管廊试验,验证了该工法在明挖综合管廊施工中具有较高的进度优势、经济优势和推广应用价值; 最后探讨该工法在小曲线半径、矩形或U型断面工程以及明挖框架结构工程中的应用前景,以期为综合管廊及类似工程提供一种新的设计理念和施工工法。     

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目前大多数信控交叉口交通延误模型仅对一个进口进行分析,本文提出了交叉口各进口在同一个信号周期内的期望交通延误分析方法.针对交叉口各进口同时处于非饱和交通状况,推导建立了能够体现交叉口延误与信控参数、车辆到达率、车辆排队长度等参数之间动态关系的微观延误模型.将其应用于长沙市解放西路与建湘路信控交叉口的延误计算,并与点样本法、HCM2000法的计算结果比较,表明本模型在信控交叉口延误计算分析中具有较好的精确度和适用性.     

Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.     

Accommodating perceptual conditioning in the valuation of expected travel time savings for cars and public transport

Travel time variability (i.e., random variations in travel time) leads to a travel time distribution for a repeated trip from a fixed origin to destination (e.g., from home to work). To represent travel time variability, a series of possible travel times per alternative (departure time, route or mode) are often used in stated choice experiments. In the traditional models, the probabilities associated with different travel scenarios (e.g., arriving early, on time and late) shown in the experiments are directly used as weights. However, evidence from psychology suggests that the shown probabilities may be transformed (underweighted or overweighted) by respondents. To account for this transformation of probabilities, this study incorporates perceptual conditioning through a non-linear probability weighting function into a utility maximisation framework, within which the empirical estimate of the value of expected travel time savings is estimated. The key advantage of this framework is that the estimated willingness to pay value can be directly linked to the source of utility (i.e., the probability distribution of travel time), while taking into account the perceptual transformation of probabilities.     

重庆市主城区交通方式结构演变与预测分析

交通方式结构演变主要受到各种宏观与微观因素的综合影响。本文以重庆市主城区为例,总结了过去五年的步行、小汽车、地面公交、轨道交通、出租车等五种交通方式结构演变规律,并从供给侧和需求侧出发,揭示了影响交通方式结构演变的各种因素,实现了对出行者交通方式决策过程的刻画。同时,以平均增长率法和随机效用最大化模型为基础,综合考虑重庆市主城区的社会经济发展水平、小汽车和出租车的发展规模、地面公交和轨道交通的服务水平,对2025年、2035年的五种交通方式的出行量和分担率进行了预测。预测结果表明,随着机动化出行比例的不断升高,轨道交通的骨干作用将日益显现,地面公交的保障作用也得到增强,预计2035年,轨道交通和地面公交在重庆市主城区居民出行交通结构中的比例将分别达到24.41%、18.72%,成为最主要的机动化出行方式。