ATIS影响下的混合随机用户均衡交通分配模型研究

在考虑信息对出行者路径选择行为影响的基础上,基于路网混合随机用户均衡建模理论,建立了ATIS影响下的混合随机用户均衡交通分配模型,证明了该数学规划模型解的等价性,设计了求解算法,并利用算例进行了计算分析.     

新型深吃水多立柱FDPSO变截面立柱涡激运动特性研究

文章采用FLUENT软件结合分离涡法对某新型深吃水多立柱FDPSO变截面立柱涡激运动特性开展了研究。将变截面立柱涡激振动系统简化为质量-弹簧-阻尼模型,引入雷诺平均应力模型求解不可压缩粘性Navier-Stokes方程,通过计算出流场作用于柱体的瞬时升力与阻力,并基于UDF程序求解运动微分方程同时运用动网格技术实现流场更新,实现了对变截面立柱涡激运动的数值模拟。对不同来流速度下变截面柱绕流和涡激运动特性进行了研究,分析了变截面柱阻力系数、升力系数、运动幅值和运动轨迹等,研究发现：在高雷诺数单柱绕流模拟中采用三维数值模型更具优势,变截面柱后方同一时间内可能有多个旋涡产生,旋涡之间相互影响,抑制了旋涡对柱体的升阻力作用;在折合速度6~9范围内,变截面柱未出现明显“锁定”现象;变截面柱涡激运动的横荡振幅峰值在Ur=4.5,约为1.2D;变截面柱流向平衡位置随着折合速度增加而增加;变截面柱运动轨迹出现了典型的“8”字形,但变截面柱的轨迹相对较紊乱。     

考虑多类型通勤者的高占有率车道均衡分析

高占有率车道是鼓励拼车出行,达到缓解交通拥堵,提高交通效率的重要交通管理方案. 本文建立一个基于高占有率车道的交通系统,加入多类型拼车组织时间通勤者和轨道交通通勤方式的影响. 给出系统用户均衡和系统最优对应的数学规划模型,并证明两种状态的存在性. 设计数值算例,进行用户均衡与系统最优比较. 结果显示,交通管理部门可以通过制定管理方案,显著降低低拼车组织时间通勤者的通勤成本. 此外,对高占有率车道长度的分析发现,高占有率车道长度越长,管理方案的效果越明显.     

路网规模对出行者路径选择转换的影响

为预测交通流的演化动态,提高交通系统运行效率,需研究路网规模与出行者路径选择转换行为间的关系。首先设计并实施实验室行为实验,收集出行者实际路径选择相关数据。行为实验涉及4个不同规模的虚拟道路网络,30名参与者基于以往的出行信息（即出行时间）在虚拟路网上进行路径选择。然后利用假设检验、回归分析等统计方法对收集到的实验数据进行分析。分析结果表明：随着路网规模的增大,路网达到用户均衡（User Equilibrium, UE）状态的次数减少。对各路网用户均衡状态与系统最优（System Optimum, SO）状态的对比表明：各路径流量的平均值都很接近于UE值,而与SO值相差较大。从逐日路径流量演化和个体选择可变性两方面分析了路网规模与路径选择转换间的关系,发现逐日路径选择转换人数（或个体路径选择转换数量）与路网规模呈正线性相关。此外,个体路径选择转换频率与平均经验出行时间显著相关。由此得出结论：单方面扩大路网规模并不总能促进路网交通流演化到用户均衡状态,且出行时间与个体路径选择转换数量存在幂函数关系。     

Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I – Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

The aim of this paper is to remove the known limitations of Deterministic and Stochastic User Equilibrium (DUE and SUE), namely that only routes with the minimum cost are used in DUE, and that all permitted routes are used in SUE regardless of their costs. We achieve this by combining the advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete error distributions; the second is a Restricted SUE model with an additional constraint that must be satisfied for unused paths. The overall advantage of these model families consists in their ability to combine the unused routes with the use of random utility models for used routes, without the need to pre-specify the choice set. We present model specifications within these families, show illustrative examples, evaluate their relative merits, and identify key directions for further research.     

Formulating the within-day dynamic stochastic traffic assignment problem from a Bayesian perspective

This study proposes a formulation of the within-day dynamic stochastic traffic assignment problem. Considering the stochastic nature of route choice behavior, we treat the solution to the assignment problem as the conditional joint distribution of route traffic, given that the network is in dynamic stochastic user equilibrium. We acquire the conditional joint probability distribution using Bayes’ theorem. A Metropolis–Hastings sampling scheme is developed to estimate the characteristics (e.g., mean and variance) of the route traffic. The proposed formulation has no special requirements for the traffic flow models and user behavior models, and so is easily implemented.     

A methodology to estimate the revenue anticipated from State-level alternative financing approaches in the US

A major issue that State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) in the US face relates to financing future transportation investments. Questions of interest to State DOT officials relate to the suitability and revenue potential of alternative financing approaches. This paper presents a methodology to estimate the potential levels of revenue associated with the use of selected combinations of financing approaches and to assess the adequacy of these revenues vis-a-vis various levels of investments being considered by decision-makers. The methodology is designed to accommodate a wide array of inputs such as major policy objectives and initial assumptions that may vary significantly from State to State in order to provide a greater flexibility of implementation. The application of this methodology is demonstrated with an illustrative example for Massachusetts. This paper should be of interest to State DOTs seeking an acceptable combination of financing approaches to support future transportation investments.     

基于用户体验的微课教学评估模型设计

结合多媒体教学方法,采用微课堂教学模式,以实现完整的课程教学。提出一种微课教学成果评估多元逐步回归分析模型,通过描述性统计分析法分析微课教学成果评估的约束参数。建立关联规则模型,对教学成果的有效性进行预测,以质量水平和效益水平作为评估教学成果质量的控制指标。采用多元逐步回归分析模型对微课教学成果质量进行预测。数据分析结果表明,该模型在微课模式下评估课堂教学成果更为准确可靠,可信度达到95%以上。     

用户均衡条件下3类停车设施收费定价模型

为了模拟多类停车设施运营(收费定价)竞争以及出行者的反馈行为,建立了基于用户均衡条件的路外、路内停车场和停车换乘设施等3类停车设施的收费定价模型.上层优化模型模拟停车运营者以利润最大为目标的停车费定价决策,下层用户均衡条件描述出行者以个人出行成本最小为原则的旅行选择行为,包括方式、路径和停车设施的选择.采用基于灵敏度分析的算法来求解该非线性规划问题.设计算例对模型和算法的有效性进行验证,结果表明:考虑多类停车设施运营竞争对停车收费定价最优解有显著影响,并且可能导致较低的停车收费水平和较好的交通需求管理效果,如人均出行的交通拥挤成本降低,停车换乘方式分担率提高等.     

Impact of the container security initiative on Taiwan's shipping industry

This paper evaluates the impact of risk factors from the container security initiative on Taiwan's shipping industry by employing a risk management matrix to identify the severity and frequency of CSI risk factors, and discovers some appropriate risk management alternatives. This paper's findings are as follows: (1) The majority of risk factors have a moderate-risk level, and possible alternative risk management measures include risk prevention, self-retention and insurance. (2) Ensuring a balance between the efficiency of maritime logistics and supply chain security is of vital importance to any trading countries dealing with security risk issues. (3) The government should encourage the private sector to design and market security hardware and software, which will promote the growth of the domestic security industry and generate employment opportunities.