基于DEA的公路建设有效性纵向评价

应用DEA方法中的C2R模型和C2GS2模型, 以内蒙古地区2000~2008年9个年度作为决策单元, 提出了适合DEA方法的公路建设输入输出指标, 对内蒙古地区9年的公路建设情况进行了整体有效性、技术有效性和投影测度分析, 并提出了相关改善措施。分析结果表明: 内蒙古地区在2004年和2008年两年整体有效, 达到投入产出的最佳组合; 其他年份规模收益递增, 继续增加投入可得到更大的产出; 9年内仍有2003、2006、2007年技术无效, 内蒙古地区在加大公路建设投入的同时要加强管理, 注重技术引进和应用。     

边坡稳定性模糊随机可靠度分析

考虑可靠性分析中结构极限状态变量在零值附近的模糊区间, 建立边坡稳定性模糊随机可靠度分析模型。研究了在土性参数变异性、模糊失效概率隶属度函数梯形与岭形分布类型情况下, 模糊区间宽率与偏度对模糊可靠指标的影响。分析结果显示: 偏度与可靠性指标曲线的斜率随宽率的减小而减小, 且其趋势与参数变异性与模糊失效概率隶属度函数类型无关; 对于宽率的某一确定值而言, 偏度的增大会导致模糊可靠指标的降低; 土性参数变异性的增加会导致模糊可靠指标的降低。     

水面舰艇作战系统的回顾和展望

  目的  舰船电子信息系统多方案优选是一个复杂的多属性决策问题。针对舰船电子信息系统的方案属性和权重信息不全、决策成员权重信息不全等问题,提出一种基于优势度测量和群体一致性的不完全信息舰船电子信息系统的方案优选方法。  方法  首先,提出不完全信息的交互准则,定义不完全信息情况下备选系统方案的绝对优势、严格优势和弱优势关系;然后,定义群体优势度指标,提出在不完全信息工况下实现备选方案全序关系的计算方法;最后,以某舰船电子信息系统方案优选为例,开展案例分析。  结果  通过群体一致性计算和迭代,形成了满足决策群成员一致性要求的优劣排序结果,验证了优选方法的合理性和有效性。  结论  研究成果可为信息不完全工况下舰船电子信息系统多属性方案优选提供技术支撑。     

The suitability of hedonic models for cost-benefit analysis: Evidence from commuting flows

We compare two estimates of benefits arising from the construction of new bridges in south-west Norway. One estimate comes from a hedonic property value model. Rather than follow an approach which is strictly theoretically correct, we adopt Rosen’s simple first-stage approach. To investigate and validate whether this simplified approach gives a reasonable estimate, we compare it to an estimate derived from a travel demand model. We find that a variant of an ex post hedonic house price model gives very similar estimates to the estimates from the travel demand model. This supports a hypothesis that the simplistic hedonic approach is reasonable.     

我国极地船舶能力分析与发展建议

  目的   极地邮轮减摇鳍选型要考虑包括环境适应、设备性能等多方面因素,主观判断往往难以选出最优的减摇鳍。针对极地邮轮减摇鳍的选型,提出基于组合赋权-TOPSIS法的综合选型评价方法。   方法   以满足极地船舶PC6规则作为某8 035 t极地邮轮减摇鳍的选型原则,通过鳍面积的经验公式计算得出减摇鳍设备选型的约束条件,进而确定3种设计方案;咨询业内专家,构建由5个一级指标和14个二级指标组成的选型评价指标体系;通过层次分析法（AHP）和熵权法（EWM）确定指标的权重;运用逼近理想解的排序方法（TOPSIS）计算各方案与理想解的贴近程度。   结果   根据排序结果,确定方案1（Aquarius A100减摇鳍）为符合决策者需求的最优减摇鳍。   结论   该方法对极地邮轮的减摇鳍选型有一定指导意义,降低了建造者和决策者选型时的盲目性。     

A valuation of the environmental performance of vehicles: an analysis and comparison of two methodologies

The European Clean Vehicle Directive was introduced in 2009 to create an obligation on public authorities to take into account the impact of energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and pollutant emissions into their purchasing decisions for road transport vehicles. This should stimulate the market for clean and energy-efficient vehicles and improve transport's impact on environment, climate change and energy use. Therefore the so-called ‘Operational Lifetime Cost’ of a vehicle is calculated, divided into the cost for energy consumption, CO₂ and pollutant (nitrous oxide, particulate matter, non-methane hydrocarbons) emissions. In Belgium, a different methodology has been developed to calculate the environmental impact of a vehicle, called ‘Ecoscore’, based on a well-to-wheel approach. More pollutants are included compared to the Clean Vehicle methodology, but also indirect emissions are taken into account. In this paper, both methodologies are compared and used to analyze the environmental performance of passenger cars with different fuel types and from different vehicle segments. Similar rankings between both methodologies are obtained; however, the large impact of energy use (and CO₂ emissions) in the Clean Vehicle methodology disadvantages compressed natural gas cars, as well as diesel cars equipped with particulate filters, compared to the Ecoscore methodology.     

Valuing crowding in public transport: Implications for cost-benefit analysis

This paper investigates the valuation of crowding in public transport trips and its implications in demand estimation and cost-benefit analysis. We use a choice-based stated preference survey where crowding levels are represented by means of specially designed pictures, and use these data to estimate flexible discrete choice models. We assume that the disutility associated with travelling under crowded conditions is proportional to travel time. Our results are consistent with and extend previous findings in the literature: passenger density has a significant effect on the utility of travelling by public transport; in fact, the marginal disutility of travel time in a crowded vehicle (6 standing-passengers/m²) is 2.5 times higher than in a vehicle with available seats. We also compare the effects of different policies for improving bus operations, and the effect of adding crowding valuation in cost-benefit analysis. In doing that, we endogenise the crowding level as the result of the equilibrium between demand and supplied bus capacity. Our results indicate that important benefits may be accrued from policies designed to reduce crowding, and that ignoring crowding effects significantly overestimate the bus travel demand the benefits associated with pure travel time reductions.     

Lead emission rates from gasoline engines—a legislative and in‐use emission rate study of U.K. and U.S. to 1990

Concern for reduction in air‐borne lead emission from passenger cars is focussed on both the legislative and practical steps in reducing lead in gasoline. The historical trends and projections to 1990 of present U.S. and U.K. policies are examined in terms of a baseline passenger car lead emission rate, g.km^‐1. It is likely that should the U.K. adopt a lead‐free petrol the decrease in lead emissions will only partially parallel the present U.S. experience from a start‐up date typically post 1990. The U.S. gasoline pool philosophy has permitted lead levels in gasoline to remain high; a pitfall which the U.K./EEC should avoid.     

基于改进层次分析模型的舰载无人机系统修理级别分析研究

在对原有舰载无人机系统评价指标体系进行组合优化以简化修理级别分析流程的基础上,从利用三标度法简化判断矩阵的构建和采用最优传递矩阵性质避免一致性检验两个层面对层次分析模型进行了改进,并基于这一改进模型对舰载无人机系统的修理级别分析模型进行了研究。算例表明该改进模型计算过程简单、结果可靠。     

统计过程控制技术在机车配件质量控制中的应用

介绍了统计过程控制(SPC)技术原理,并探讨应用SPC技术对机车配件质量稳定性和过程能力进行分析,达到降低机车配件入厂检验的风险和对供货商进行有效评价和控制的目的。