结构可靠度计算的实用二次二阶矩法

针对结构可靠度二次二阶矩法中曲率计算难度大,不便于工程推广的情况,利用矩阵理论建立了求解曲率的表达式,无须再从求解矩阵特征值的途径求解曲率值,简化了计算过程,提出了适应变量独立或相关情况的实用二次二阶矩法,算例验证了其精度和实用性。     

SW-220K型转向架参数优化试验研究

对配装SW—220K型转向架的25T型客车进行了振动试验;分析了车辆的主要振型;分别进行了采用不同空气弹簧、二系阻尼系数值时的试验,根据垂向、横向平稳性指标测试结果,得出了采用原型空气弹簧结构并增大二系垂向阻尼系数值能够改善车辆运行性能的结论。     

散货船运输市场周期性分析与预测

国际散货船航运市场在国际航运市场中占有举足轻重的地位,其走势具有周期性,可以预测船舶航运市场的整体趋势,进一步对全球经济形势分析预测。通过对克拉克森报告进行分析和调研,根据调研结果并结合新冠疫情影响确定了散货船航运市场的主要影响因素,采用相关股票指数和数据对各影响因素量化,对历史数据建立时滞模型并进行多元回归分析,进而建立时滞回归模型,构造了代价函数并采用梯度下降法建立多变量线性回归模型,得出表征散货船市场情况的波罗的海指数(BDI)与影响其走势的几种主要因素之间的代数关系,从而用近几年各影响因素的值来预测未来几个月内波罗的海指数的发展趋势,为船市的进一步布局规划提供参考。     

钢纤维-水泥石基体界面粘结性能研究进展综述

钢纤维与混凝土水泥石基体界面性能直接决定纤维对复合材料的增强效果，对界面性能的改善已经成为钢纤维混凝土性能提高的主要途径。从界面区的结构与特征着手，总结国内外界面区力学性能与微观结构的测试方法和评价指标，阐述常用的纤维混凝土理论及一些有限元模拟分析方法，并对钢纤维混凝土发展方向进行归纳。     

Finding a balance: companies,seafarers and family life

Separation from partner and family has been found to be one of the most significant causes of stress for seafarers, with separation from the family one of the most important ‘stress’ factors influencing a decision to reduce planned sea service. Drawing on in-depth interviews with seafarers' partners in the UK, China and India, this paper focuses on the impact of seafaring on family life, with particular attention given to the effects of differing conditions of service and the range of company support available to seafarers and their partners. The paper concludes that the negative consequences of seafaring can be minimized by such policies as shorter trips, continuous employment (rather than employment by voyage) and opportunities for partners and families to sail. Whilst these measures may have financial costs, these can be off-set by improved retention of seafarers and the avoidance of stress-related illnesses. Indeed, at a time when there is a projected shortfall of well-trained seafarers, such steps may be sound company policy     

Island Villagers’ Willingness to Work or Pay for Sustainability of a Marine Fishery Reserve: Case of San Miguel Island,Philippines

Establishment of marine reserves or marine protected areas (MPAs) has emerged as a major coastal resource management tool in the Philippines. A major sustainability constraint is the enforcement of MPA and fisheries regulations. We contribute to the literature of using stated preference methods to investigate the local residents’ willingness to work (WTW) and willingness to pay (WTP) for the continued existence of the San Miguel Island (SMI) fishery reserve in Bicol Region, Philippines. We surveyed 435 respondents in three villages. The lower-bound mean WTW is 3.5 days/mo for residents in the “owner” village and 1.9 days/mo for residents in adjacent villages. Using a fraction of mean daily income to impute the monetary equivalent of WTW, the result is more than 3 times higher than the Php16 to 25/mo (US$0.34 to 0.75/mo) estimated mean WTP. We hypothesize that labor market in this rural village is incomplete so residents have stronger preference for money than for time. However, further investigation on the opportunity cost of time and understanding the labor market is warranted when using WTW in a valuation framework. Some policy implications are: (1) considering use of voluntary labor as management option for MPAs and (2) establishing “own village” MPAs may increase residents’ conservation value.     

城市水下道路隧道驾驶安全影响因素分析和改善思路

总结城市水下道路隧道事故分布规律，从驾驶人、隧道光环境及道路条件3方面分析隧道驾驶安全影响因素，对现有安全改善措施及其优缺点进行剖析，并指出城市水下道路隧道驾驶安全优化研究趋势： 应以提升隧道光环境质量为主，考虑交通事故形态、事故致因及影响因素，在确保交通安全的基础上，考虑不同隧道路段驾驶人差异化视觉需求。驾驶人视觉需求可以分为功能性、安全性与舒适性需求，对应的隧道行车环境可分为基本型、安全型与舒适型视觉参照系。提出以构建城市水下道路隧道舒适型视觉参照系为目标，通过隧道照明与隧道视线诱导技术相结合，缓解隧道出入口参照系的剧烈过渡，加强中间段弱视觉参照的城市水下道路隧道驾驶安全优化方法。构建基于空间路权、人因与驾驶任务、差异性与韵律性的隧道驾驶安全优化评价指标体系，为城市水下道路隧道驾驶安全优化提供新思路。     

Rollover risk prediction of heavy vehicles by reliability index and empirical modelling

This paper focuses on a combination of a reliability-based approach and an empirical modelling approach for rollover risk assessment of heavy vehicles. A reliability-based warning system is developed to alert the driver to a potential rollover before entering into a bend. The idea behind the proposed methodology is to estimate the rollover risk by the probability that the vehicle load transfer ratio (LTR) exceeds a critical threshold. Accordingly, a so-called reliability index may be used as a measure to assess the vehicle safe functioning. In the reliability method, computing the maximum of LTR requires to predict the vehicle dynamics over the bend which can be in some cases an intractable problem or time-consuming. With the aim of improving the reliability computation time, an empirical model is developed to substitute the vehicle dynamics and rollover models. This is done by using the SVM (Support Vector Machines) algorithm. The preliminary obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

绿色低碳港口评价指标体系研究与应用

结合我国港口实际,探讨分析了绿色低碳港口的内涵和主要特征,研究构建了一套基于综合性指标、系统性指标、管理性指标、特色性指标等4大类指标的绿色低碳港口评价指标体系,并提出了相应测评方法及标准。以广州港为案例,分别对2013年发展现状水平和2016年、2020年规划水平开展了实证评价,验证了指标体系的科学有效性。     

船舶营运大数据挖掘与应用思考

船舶营运大数据来源于航运信息平台和营运船舶监测,通过对这些海量数据的分析与挖掘,能发现很多有价值的信息与规律,可应用于多载况下船舶功率与航速评估、船舶能效设计指数(EEDI)实船验证方法的完善、MRV机制实施的技术支持;风浪对航速的影响研究;节能技术的节能效果评价;船舶进坞清污最佳时机分析;船舶设备运行的精细化管理等,对于促进造船和航运业的技术进步具有重要的意义。