Dynamic and disequilibrium analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems

There is a growing awareness in recent years that the interdependencies among the civil infrastructure systems have significant economic, security and engineering implications that may influence their resiliency, efficiency and effectiveness. To capture the various types of infrastructure interdependencies and incorporate them into decision-making processes in various application domains, Zhang and Peeta (2011) propose a generalized modeling framework that combines a multilayer infrastructure network (MIN) concept and a market-based economic approach using computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory and its spatial extension (SCGE) to formulate a static equilibrium infrastructure interdependencies problem. This paper extends the framework to address the dynamic and disequilibrium aspects of the infrastructure interdependencies problems. It briefly reviews the static model, and proposes an alternative formulation for it using the variational inequality (VI) technique. Based on this equivalent VI formulation, a within-period equilibrium-tending dynamic model is proposed to illustrate how these systems evolve towards an equilibrium state within a short duration after a perturbation. To address a longer time scale, a multi-period dynamic model is proposed. This model explicitly considers the evolution of infrastructure interdependencies over time and the temporal interactions among the various systems through dynamic parameters that link the different time periods. Using this model, numerical experiments are conducted for a special case with a single region to analyze the sensitivity of the model to the various parameters, and demonstrate the ability of the modeling framework to formulate and solve practical problems such as cascading failures, disaster recovery, and budget allocation in a dynamic setting.     

Multi-class percentile user equilibrium with flow-dependent stochasticity

Travelers often reserve a buffer time for trips sensitive to arrival time in order to hedge against the uncertainties in a transportation system. To model the effects of such behavior, travelers are assumed to choose routes to minimize the percentile travel time, i.e. the travel time budget that ensures their preferred probability of on-time arrival; in doing so, they drive the system to a percentile user equilibrium (UE), which can be viewed as an extension of the classic Wardrop equilibrium. The stochasticity in the supply of transportation are incorporated by modeling the service flow rate of each road segment as a random variable. Such stochasticity is flow-dependent in the sense that the probability density functions of these random variables, from which the distribution of link travel time are constructed, are specified endogenously with flow-dependent parameters. The percentile route travel time, obtained by directly convolving the link travel time distributions in this paper, is not available in closed form in general and has to be numerically evaluated. To reveal their structural properties, percentile UE solutions are examined in special cases and verified with numerical results. For the general multi-class percentile UE traffic assignment problem, a variational inequality formulation is given and solved using a route-based algorithm. The algorithm makes use of the diagonal elements in the Jacobian of percentile route travel time, which is approximated through recursive convolution. Preliminary numerical experiments indicate that the algorithm is able to achieve highly precise equilibrium solutions.     

基于VMD-MD-Clustering方法的航班延误等级分类

针对航班数量逐年增加导致的航班延误日益频繁问题,研究对航班延误等级分类的方法,从而为制定针对性措施,降低航班延误造成的损失提供理论基础。从时间、空间和效率3个方面确定航班延误时间、航班飞行时间、延误影响人数和航程这4个数值属性指标,以及过站是否经停、飞机载客量2个类属性指标,共计6个评估指标构建航班延误等级分类模型。提出了1种基于变分模态分解（VMD）、马氏深度（MD）函数和K-means数据聚类（Clustering）的航班延误等级分类方法（以下简称V-M-C方法）。V-M-C方法将非正态、非平稳的多维航班延误数据视作含噪声的信号序列进行处理,通过VMD降噪获得正态、稳定的多维信号数据;利用MD函数进行降维处理得到一维的稳定信号数据;使用K-means方法对得到的一维数据进行聚类,对航班延误等级分类。为确定航班延误等级分类精确性,采用带惩罚权重的支持向量机（SVM）对分类结果进行分析,可以在一定程度上提高V-M-C方法的普适性。以某大型枢纽机场某月的航班运行数据为例,只使用K-means算法的航班延误等级分类精度为81.9%,而V-M-C方法对航班延误等级分类精度可提升至95.41%。实验结果表明,V-M-C方法的分类准确率更高,能够帮助机场根据相应延误等级制定预案,保障航班整体运行正点率。     

基于变分法原理的浅埋隧道围岩压力上限研究

浅埋段隧道上覆岩土厚度随埋深发生变化,且受地形条件影响,有必要考虑埋深对隧道支护结构设计的影响。为得到变化埋深条件下洞口浅埋段的围岩压力分布和影响长度,基于Hoek-Brown 破坏准则,采用极限分析上限理论,得到浅埋段隧道上方塌落体的构成曲线,并基于变分法原理获得浅埋段隧道极限支护力(反力为围岩压力)沿隧道轴向的变化规律曲线。通过分析,得到以下结论: 1)围岩压力随上覆土厚度增加而呈曲线增加; 2)依据围岩压力随距离(埋深)的变化关系可以得到浅埋段的有效影响范围,超过影响范围的围岩压力几乎不随埋深变化,可以视为深埋段; 3)围岩压力和浅埋段临界范围不仅与岩土材料参数有关,也受到隧道断面宽度和地表坡度的影响。     

柴油机缸盖水腔沸腾传热的修正计算

基于单相流沸腾传热模型,提出一种用于沸腾传热计算的修正算法,通过在CFD软件外部修正热流密度和换热系数来反映沸腾传热的影响。采用修正算法分别对某试验水道和柴油机缸盖水腔内的沸腾传热过程进行了数值模拟计算,与试验测量值相比,试验水道的最大计算误差为7.2%,缸盖水腔的最大计算误差为8%,表明修正算法不仅容易在CFD软件中实现,而且具有足够的精度。     

A semi-analytical approach for solving the bottleneck model with general user heterogeneity

This paper proposes a novel semi-analytical approach for solving the dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) of a bottleneck model with general heterogeneous users. The proposed approach makes use of the analytical solutions from the bottleneck analysis to create an equivalent assignment problem that admits closed-form commute cost functions. The equivalent problem is a static and asymmetric traffic assignment problem, which can be formulated as a variational inequality problem (VIP). This approach provides a new tool to analyze the properties of the bottleneck model with general heterogeneity, and to design efficient solution methods. In particular, the existence and uniqueness of the DUE solution can be established using the P-property of the Jacobian matrix. Our numerical experiments show that a simple decomposition algorithm is able to quickly solve the equivalent VIP to high precision. The proposed VIP formation is also extended to address simultaneous departure time and route choice in a single O–D origin-destination network with multiple parallel routes.     

Optimal recharging strategies for electric vehicle fleets with duration constraints

Electrical vehicles (EVs) have become a popular green transportation means recently because they have lower energy consumption costs and produce less pollution. The success of EVs relies on technologies to extend their driving range, which can be achieved by the good deployment of EV recharging stations. This paper considers a special EV network composed of fixed routes for an EV fleet, where each EV moves along its own cyclic tour of depots. By setting up a recharging station on a depot, an EV can recharge its battery for no longer than a pre-specified duration constraint. We seek an optimal deployment of recharging stations and an optimal recharging schedule for each EV such that all EVs can continue their tours in the planning horizon with minimum total costs. To solve this difficult location problem, we first propose a mixed integer program (MIP) formulation and then derive four new valid inequalities to shorten the solution time. Eight MIP models, which were created by adding different combinations of the four valid inequalities to the basic model, have been implemented to test their individual effectiveness and synergy over twelve randomly generated EV networks. Valuable managerial insights into the usage of valid inequalities and the relations between the battery capacity and the total costs, number of recharging facilities to be installed, and running time are analyzed.     

Influential factors in port infrastructure tariff formulation,implementation and revision

The process of formulation, revision and approval of port infrastructure tariffs is complex and involves different stakeholders. The extant literature focuses more on port pricing research but pays less attention to the practice of port infrastructure tariff setting. This paper aims to identify and analyses the influential factors in the port infrastructure tariff formulation process using survey data collected from 67 port authorities. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is first conducted before confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is applied to analyse the latent factors underlying port infrastructure tariff setting. The analysis results suggested the four factors influential to infrastructure tariff practice, namely tariff policies, transparency, tariff regulation and stakeholder participation. The paper also presents the implications for port authorities, management and stakeholders.     

The variational formulation of a non-equilibrium traffic flow model: Theory and implications

The analysis and numerical solution of non-equilibrium traffic flow models in current literature are almost exclusively carried out in the hyperbolic conservation law framework, which requires a good understanding of the delicate and non-trivial Riemann problems for conservation laws. In this paper, we present a novel formulation of certain non-equilibrium traffic flow models based on their isomorphic relation with optimal control problems. This formulation extends the minimum principle observed by the LWR model. We demonstrate that with the new formulation, generic initial-boundary conditions can be conveniently handled and a simplified numerical solution scheme for non-equilibrium models can be devised. Besides deriving the variational formulation, we provide a comprehensive discussion on its mathematical properties and physical implications.     

多用户弹性需求下组合出行动态拥挤收费模型

应用动态交通分配和随机效用理论, 放宽OD矩阵固定不变以及出行者都是同质的假设条件, 研究了多用户弹性需求下组合方式出行的动态拥挤收费问题。提出了与动态组合出行条件等价的变分不等式模型, 建立了动态拥挤收费的双层模型, 设计了对应的启发式算法。算例结果表明: 拥挤收费削减高峰期出发率的效果比较突出, 能将部分高峰时段的出发流量分流至非高峰时段; 拥挤收费对低VOT出行者的诱导作用最大, 低VOT出行者为了避免缴费更愿意更改出行时间或出行路径; 实施拥挤收费后的社会福利总和有所增加, 说明其不仅可以缓解个别路段的拥挤状况, 还可以提高交通系统的整体使用效率。