德法市郊铁路运营管理特点分析

以柏林、巴黎、法兰克福和慕尼黑4个城市的市郊铁路作为研究对象,概况介绍其运营里程长、运量大的总体特点和运营政策。着眼于线网布局和运输组织2个方面,通过各类成熟运营的实例,对线路布局、配套设施、列车运行网络、列车种类细分、开行时刻规律等具体做法进行深入分析和总结归纳。通过研究发现,德、法市郊铁路的规划设计与运营需求匹配良好,设备安全可靠,运输组织能最大限度地接近于客流分布,形成较完整、高效、灵活的市郊运输产品,对我国市郊铁路的发展具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Maximizing net benefits for conventional and flexible bus services

Transit ridership is usually sensitive to fares, travel times, waiting times, and access times, among other factors. Therefore, the elasticities of demand with respect to such factors should be considered in modeling bus transit services and must be considered when maximizing net benefits (i.e. “system welfare” = consumer surplus + producer surplus) rather just minimizing costs. In this paper welfare is maximized with elastic demand relations for both conventional (fixed route) and flexible-route services in systems with multiple dissimilar regions and periods. As maximum welfare formulations are usually too complex for exact solutions, they have only been used in a few studies focused on conventional transit services. This limitation is overcome here for both conventional and flexible transit services by using a Real Coded Genetic Algorithm to solve such mixed integer nonlinear welfare maximization problems with constraints on capacities and subsidies. The optimized variables include service type, zone sizes, headways and fares. We also determine the maximum welfare threshold between optimized conventional and flexible services) and explore the effects of subsidies. The proposed planning models should be useful in selecting the service type and optimizing other service characteristics based on local geographic characteristics and financial constraints.     

Anticipating new-highway impacts: Opportunities for welfare analysis and credit-based congestion pricing

Pricing of roadways opens doors for infrastructure financing, and congestion pricing seeks to address inefficiencies in roadway operations. This paper emphasizes the revenue-generation opportunities and welfare impacts of flat-tolling schemes, standard congestion pricing, and credit-based congestion pricing policies. While most roadway investment decisions focus on travel time savings for existing trips, this work turns to logsum differences (which quantify changes in consumer surplus) for nested logit specifications across two traveler types, two destinations, three modes and three times of day, in order to arrive at welfare- and revenue-maximizing solutions. This behavioral specification is quite flexible, and facilitates benefit-cost calculations (as well as equity analysis), as demonstrated in this paper.The various cases examined suggest significant opportunities for financing new roadway investment while addressing congestion and equity issues, with net gains for both traveler types. Application results illustrate how, even after roadway construction and maintenance costs are covered, receipts may remain to distribute to eligible travelers so that typical travelers can be made better off than if a new, non-tolled road had been constructed. Moreover, tolling both routes (new and old) results in substantially shorter payback periods (5 versus 20 years) and higher welfare outcomes (in the case of welfare-maximizing tolls with credit distributions to all travelers). The tools and techniques highlighted here illustrate practical methods for identifying welfare-enhancing and cost-recovering investment opportunities, while recognizing multiple user classes and appropriate demand elasticity across times of day, destinations, modes and routes.     

我国出租车行业的民营化改革

从揭示出租车行业的性质入手,系统分析了我国作为主体的出租车运营业,即北京模式的现状,并以民营化理论为基础,具体阐述了我国出租车行业民营化的路径。同时基于出租车行业作为城市公共交通一部分的公益属性,论证了政府再管制的合法性和措施。     

The economic impact of the ATA/Southwest Airlines code-share agreement

This paper examines the economic impact of the code-sharing agreement between ATA and Southwest Airlines, the first time Southwest has chosen to enter markets via a code-share alliance rather than direct entry. We examine the impact of complementary code-sharing on incumbent airline's fares and passenger volumes and also the overall impact on consumer welfare in Denver airline markets. Empirical results show that air fares decreased and passenger volumes increased for incumbent carriers operating on code-shared routes. Further, we find evidence that this code-sharing arrangement increased both consumer and producer surplus. Thus, the well-known “Southwest Effect” is observed not only when Southwest enters a route directly, but also when it enters a route via a code-share agreement with another airline.     

铁路公益性客运范围界定混合决策模型

随着国家“基本公共服务均等化”规划的提出和铁路“政企分开”市场化改革的推进,铁路公益性与商业性服务之间的矛盾越发突出. 合理界定铁路公益性客运范围是缓解冲突,实现有效供给的前提. 本文结合定性与定量分析,构建了基于B-C-C三阶段决策流程和 PCFA-FCM降维聚类算法的铁路公益性客运范围界定混合决策模型.B-C-C三阶段决策模型以社会效益、经济状况和现实能力作为层进式判定条件,实现铁路公益性客运范围界定的顶层决策.PCFA-FCM降维聚类算法解决了决策流程实际运作中最难实现的社会效益(公益程度)量化分析问题,可以摆脱列车类型的约束,根据实际指标属性进行分类.     

Social welfare analysis of investment public–private partnership approaches for transportation projects

This paper has two objectives: (i) to introduce a new approach in order to gain widespread support for road pricing; and (ii) to develop a detailed social welfare analysis for road pricing schemes. We first describe our novel approach that stimulates public support for road pricing, which we refer to as an investment public–private partnership, or IP3. This approach returns a significant portion of the economic value created by road pricing back to the citizens who own the newly priced facility. We then present a social welfare framework that estimates the benefits and costs of using the IP3 approach on an urban transportation network. A P3 project’s impact on overall social welfare provides a more comprehensive evaluation criterion than the often-used Value for Money (VfM) analysis. Apart from several theoretical studies, a detailed social welfare analysis that includes all major P3 project stakeholders is absent from the literature. We use Fresno, California as our case study in order to conduct a welfare analysis on IP3s. Our results show that system-optimal tolling favors average users, but that government—and consequently taxpayers—should pay for costly tolling systems (negative profits). In contrast, unlimited profit-maximizing tolls raise substantial profits for government, for the infrastructure’s citizen-owners, and for the private sector, but the average user is worse off. From a social-welfare perspective, one should search for a Pareto improvement under which all major stakeholders are better off. Our estimates indicate that a mixed public and private tolling scheme offers such an improvement.     

Welfare effects of congestion pricing in Singapore

This paper examines the Singapore Area License Scheme. Changes in scheduling and choices of transportation mode by commuters are discussed. Although the toll is shown to reduce travel times for many commuters, many commuters are shown to incur scheduling costs as a result of the toll. Using estimated parameters of an indirect utility function, welfare functions are computed to compare welfare levels prior to, and just after, the toll was put into place. The evidence suggests that the toll may have reduced welfare.     

不同目标条件下收费公路规制效应的比较

为了比较不同目标条件下的规制措施对收费公路经济变量的影响,应用福利经济学和规制经济学基本理论,构建了不同目标条件下的收费公路规制模型,通过仿真计算,比较了5种不同规制模型中主要经济变量的差异。分析结果表明：无规制前提下追求社会福利最大化目标容易导致企业亏损;收支均衡前提下追求社会福利最大化目标会使通行费价格提高;无规制前提下追求利润最大化的目标会导致收费公路通行能力下降,社会福利水平减小;交通量规制和通行成本规制前提下追求利润最大化目标既有助于提高社会福利水平,同时也有利于增加企业利润。收费公路的社会福利最大化目标和企业利润最大化目标难以同时实现,但是政府规制前提下的特许经营模式有利于协调两大目标之间的差异。     

城市公交价格组合策略的系统动力学建模与仿真

城市公交价格系统是由公交出行者、运营者、管理者三个主体构成的多变量、多反馈、非线性的复杂系统,不同价格组合策略对利益主体的影响不同. 由公交主体在系统中的作用将公交价格系统分为公交供给子系统、公交企业收益子系统、公交需求子系统三个子系统. 采用系统动力学方法,建立了城市公交价格系统变量间的因果关系图和流图,以及公交价格系统动力学模型. 通过提高或降低公交补贴标准、公交车辆供给、公交服务价格三个指标值,形成不同公交价格组合策略方案. 在高、低两种经济发展水平背景下,以哈尔滨市公交企业为对象分五种情境对公交价格组合策略方案进行仿真,得出政府补贴、公交企业利润,以及乘车等待时间的变化趋势. 选择社会福利和资金利用比指标,评价不同公交价格组合策略实施的效果. 公交价格组合策略分析,为城市公交价格政策的制定和实施提供了参考依据.