Forecasting bunker prices; A nonstationary,multivariate methodology

This paper suggests a methodological approach for the forecasting of marine fuel prices. The prediction of the bunker prices is of outmost importance for operators, as bunker prices affect heavily the economic planning and financial viability of ventures and determine decisions related to compliance with regulations. A multivariate nonstationary stochastic model available in the literature is being retrieved, after appropriate adjustment and testing. The model belongs to the class of periodically correlated stochastic processes with annual periodic components. The time series are appropriately transformed to become Gaussian, and then are decomposed to deterministic seasonal characteristics (mean value and standard deviation) and a residual time series. The residual part is proved to be stationary and then is modeled as a Vector AutoRegressive Mooving Average (VARMA) process. Finally, using the methodology presented, forecasts of a tetra-variate and an octa-variate time series of bunker prices are produced and are in good agreement with actual values. The obtained results encourages further research and deeper investigation of the driving characters of the multivariate time series of bunker prices.     

Estimation of the perceived value of transit time for containerized cargoes

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the perceived value of transit time of containers by shipping lines. The key idea is that a shipping line’s published schedule is the optimal decision that minimizes the sum of fuel cost and time-associated costs of the containers adopted by the shipping line. Using the proposed method, we find that the adopted values of transit time for nine trans-Pacific services operated by Orient Overseas Container Line and five trans-Pacific services operated by Maersk Line are between US$5/TEU/day and US$30/TEU/day. We further demonstrate how the adopted value can be used for designing the optimal transit times between ports, analyzing the viability of slow-steaming, checking whether ships should speed up to catch up to connecting ships on other services, and helping to predict the market share of less polluting fuels in view of rules on air emission.     

Bunker levy schemes for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in international shipping

A fuel levy is one of the market-based measures (MBMs) currently under consideration at the International Maritime Organization. MBMs have been proposed to improve the energy efficiency of the shipping sector and reduce its emissions. This paper analyses the economic and environmental implications of two types of levy on shipping bunker fuels by means of an analytical model built on the cobweb theorem. A unit-tax per ton of fuel and an ad-valorem tax, enforced as a percentage of fuel prices, are examined. In both cases, a speed and fuel-consumption reduction equivalent to an improvement in the energy efficiency of the sector would be expected as a result of the regulation enforcement. The speed reduction in the unit-tax case depends on fuel prices and the tax amount, whereas in the ad-valorem case it relies upon the enforced tax percentage.Both schemes lead to industry profit decline, the extent of which depend on the structure of the levy and market conditions. Since there is concern that the costs resulting from the policy will be passed from shipping companies to their customers along the supply chain, the paper dwells on how the costs arising from the enforcement of the levy will be actually allocated between ship-owners and operators, and cargo-owners. In a market characterised by high freight rates and with no or limited excess capacity, a higher percentage of the total tax amount is transferred from ship-owners to shippers. In case of a recession the opposite happens.     

中国加入"国际燃油公约"分析

国际燃油公约预计将于近期生效,本文从公约的核心内容入手,重点分析了我国燃油污染损害现状及我国批准加入公约的原因,并提出了现阶段我国应对燃油公约的决策建议。     

浅析《2001年国际燃油污染损害民事责任公约》

介绍即将生效的《2001年国际燃油污染损害民事责任公约》的制定背景,分析燃油、污染损害、连带责任、强制保险或经济担保、证书、公约的效力等概念的界定及其要点,提出我国航运企业应熟知公约内容,密切关注船旗国接受该公约情况的动态,尽可能全面地掌握相关要求,提前取得公约要求的证书和做好必要准备。     

大型LNG运输加注船结构强度有限元分析

按照DNV GL规范和指南,采用通用有限元计算软件MSC. Patran并结合DNV GL开发的新一代规范计算软件Nauticus Hull V.20和有限元计算软件Genie,以某大型LNG运输加注船中间货舱和第1货舱结构作为评估目标进行有限元分析。根据DNV GL规范,对部分高应力区域也进行细化计算。仿真计算结果表明:甲板气室开口区域和止浮结构强度满足要求,第1货舱舷侧外板需要加强,研究结果对今后中小型液化天然气船的设计有一定的参考价值。