驾驶员行为模式的因子分析和模糊聚类

为了研究驾驶员的驾驶行为模式及人群聚类特点, 基于标准化驾驶员行为问卷开展了以中国非职业驾驶员为样本的驾驶行为自填式调查, 通过统计分析验证了问卷的有效性和可信性, 并基于因子分析方法, 从问卷结果中提取出驾驶能力因子和驾驶风格因子, 实现了对驾驶员驾驶行为模式的量化描述。进而以提取出的因子为特征, 采用模糊C均值聚类分析的方法建立了驾驶员行为模式的类别分布空间。对比分析表明: 驾驶能力因子值越大, 驾驶员驾驶能力越低; 驾驶风格因子值越大, 驾驶员驾驶风格越激进; 聚类结果与驾驶员主观自我评估的分布趋势一致, 能力偏弱、风格偏激进的聚类人群具有较高的事故驾驶员比率。     

武器系统使用可用性评估模型及应用

  目的  针对现有的舰船战备完好性评估方法已无法满足海军任务保障需求这一问题,提出基于云模型的新型评估方法。  方法  首先,在指标确定过程中,基于合作博弈权重方法,将层次分析法、熵权法和灰色关联度法所计算的权重进行合作博弈,从而拟合得到组合定权重,并引入变权重理论对定权重进行修正优化;然后,引入云模型理论,利用云相似度替代隶属度,设计基于云模型的模糊综合评估模型;最后,以舰船对空防御任务为例,评估舰船战备完好性。  结果  仿真结果表明：变权重模式下,基于云模型的模糊综合评估结果可以更准确地反映实船战备状态。  结论  研究成果可为舰船战备完好性评估提供参考。     

Incorporating Driver Behaviors in Network Design Problems: Challenges and Opportunities

The goal of a network design problem (NDP) is to make optimal decisions to achieve a certain objective such as minimizing total travel time or maximizing tolls collected in the network. A critical component to NDP is how travelers make their route choices. Researchers in transportation have adopted human decision theories to describe more accurate route choice behaviors. In this paper, we review the NDP with various route choice models: the random utility model (RUM), random regret-minimization (RRM) model, bounded rationality (BR), cumulative prospect theory (CPT), the fuzzy logic model (FLM) and dynamic learning models. Moreover, we identify challenges in applying behavioral route choice models to NDP and opportunities for future research.     

Adapt-Traf: An adaptive multiagent road traffic management system based on hybrid ant-hierarchical fuzzy model

Usually, road networks are characterized by their great dynamics including different entities in interactions. This leads to more complex road traffic management. This paper proposes an adaptive multiagent system based on the ant colony behavior and the hierarchical fuzzy model. This system allows adjusting efficiently the road traffic according to the real-time changes in road networks by the integration of an adaptive vehicle route guidance system. The proposed system is implemented and simulated under a multiagent platform in order to discuss the improvement of the global road traffic quality in terms of time, fluidity and adaptivity.     

Trade-offs between mobility and equity maximization under environmental capacity constraints: A case study of an integrated multi-objective model

This paper investigates the performance of a policy decision tool proposed for multi-objective decision under different policy interventions. This tool deals with the trade-off between mobility and equity maximization under environmental capacity constraints. Two system objectives, maximization of mobility and equity, are formulated in terms of the sum of total car ownership and number of trips, and the differences in accessibility between zones. Environmental capacities are based on production efficiency theory in which the frontier emission under maximum system efficiency is taken as environmental capacity. To examine the performance of the proposed model, three types of hypothetical policies (network improvement, population increase and urban sprawl) are formulated. Effects are simulated using data pertaining to Dalian City, China. Results show that the proposed model is capable of representing the trade-offs between mobility and equity based on different policy interventions. Compared with two extreme cases with the single objective of mobility maximization or equity maximization, the Pareto-optimal solutions provide more interesting practical options for decision makers. Taking the solution based on the maximum equity as an example, the policy of urban sprawl yields the most significant improvement in both emission and accessibility of the three scenarios.     

机车模糊粘着控制及其仿真研究

简要讨论了目前机车空转识别方法和主要的防空转，粘着控制方法，提出了一种转趋势识别方法；基于此方法，利用模糊控制理论进行了优化着模糊控制的研究，仿真结果表明，上述方法能在发生空转前及时抑制空转发生，并最大限度利用粘着力，实现了优化粘着控制。     

基于模糊层次评价法的动力定位系统综合评价

通过对动力定位系统体系结构的分析,确立动力定位系统RAM评估指标的层次结构,即系统可靠性、系统可用性、系统可维护性。文章针对动力定位系统RAM的评估工作,采用AHP法确定评估指标体系各指标权重,建立了模糊综合评判模型,对系统的RAM进行量化,并对最终可能出现的不同评估结论进行分析与选择。最后以某耙吸式挖泥船为研究对象,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于模糊综合评估法的工程项目风险管理研究

在工程项目的生命周期内,将遭遇大量的风险因素,这些风险性因素通常难以用准确的定量方法去描述,必需借助于和概率统计相关的一些数学工具才能完成.采用有效的方法对风险进行分析、度量,可以提高工程效益.在阐述项目风险固有因素的基础上,运用模糊综合评估方法来分析、度量项目的风险,从而为项目风险的分析和度量提供了定性和定量相结合的综合评价方法.通过对施工单位能力评价的实例演示,证明了该方法的科学性和可行性.     

公路工程项目经济评价指标计算方法

为了对含有模糊基础数据和参数的公路工程项目方案进行有效评价, 建立了评价指标体系, 将评价指标分为梯形与三角形模糊变量, 在同一可能空间上或不同可能空间上进行模糊运算, 由Zadeh扩展原理得到模糊变量的隶属度, 利用模糊模拟技术计算模糊变量的可信值、关键值与期望值, 并利用计算值对项目进行了评价。评价结果表明: 评价项目的模糊期望净现值大于0, 可信值达到100%, 说明项目可行, 评价结果客观。     

形成零件组和建立成组生产单元的“生产流程—分类编码”聚类分析法

本文提出了一种利用模糊聚类分析法形成零件组和建立机床组的新方法,实现了生产流程分析法与编码分类法的综合.对于成组加工单元,本文把设备负荷与零件相似系数一起作为形成成组加工单元的主要因素,获得了合理的零件组和机床组,并具有良好的柔性和计算性.