散货船运输市场周期性分析与预测

国际散货船航运市场在国际航运市场中占有举足轻重的地位,其走势具有周期性,可以预测船舶航运市场的整体趋势,进一步对全球经济形势分析预测。通过对克拉克森报告进行分析和调研,根据调研结果并结合新冠疫情影响确定了散货船航运市场的主要影响因素,采用相关股票指数和数据对各影响因素量化,对历史数据建立时滞模型并进行多元回归分析,进而建立时滞回归模型,构造了代价函数并采用梯度下降法建立多变量线性回归模型,得出表征散货船市场情况的波罗的海指数(BDI)与影响其走势的几种主要因素之间的代数关系,从而用近几年各影响因素的值来预测未来几个月内波罗的海指数的发展趋势,为船市的进一步布局规划提供参考。     

铁路散堆装货物在车辆车帮上的运行跌落分析

本文分析计算了各种不同装运铁路散堆装货物的车辆以90km/h的速度行驶在400m的曲线上时,车辆车帮上的散堆装货物颗粒沿曲线路段的切线方向飞出后,是否会打到机车前窗玻璃及旅客车厢玻璃,从而对旅客及机车乘务员安全构成威胁.经过计算分析得知,曲线内侧行驶的货运列车外车帮上的散堆装颗粒跌落后不能打到在外曲线迎面行驶的电力机车...     

115000 DWT散货船上的焊接设计

本研究主要介绍了115 000 DWT散货船在焊接精细化设计方面所做的工作.其内容包括主板焊缝布置图的设计、焊脚高度标注形式的设计以及船体焊缝无损探伤部位图的设计.     

散装货船模糊综合安全性评估的实现方法(三)--船舶因素在散货船安全评估中的作用分析

文章再次就散装货船模糊综合安全笥评估方法中船舶因素的组成、结构及包含的内容与作用,进行了较为详细的分析与讨论。意在通过模糊量化的方法,将散货船的安全性与船舶的安全性结合起来,并说明该方法用于散货船综合安全性评判中的科学性与可行性。     

散装化学品船舶事故应急处置方案

文章基于散装化学品船舶事故的严重性,结合化学品的特性,指出要对散装化学品进行正确的评价,并针对散装化学品火灾爆炸事故与泄漏事故的特点,提出了相应的应急处置方案。     

42000吨散货船结构疲劳可靠性评估

本文从可靠性概念出发，对沪东造船厂建造的42000吨散货船甲板角隅结构疲劳强度进行安全评估。评估中考虑了疲劳数据的离散性、应力分析的误差以及波浪载荷的随机性等不确定因素，结果表明，该船甲板角隅的疲劳可靠性水平在0．98以上，即失效概率小于0．02，较好地反映了该船的实际情况。该评估方法也可用于集装箱船甲板大开口疲劳安全评估。选择合适的可靠性水平，保证角隅恰当的疲劳强度，避免角隅疲劳裂纹的产生，对集装箱船结构安全具有实际意义。     

散货船中剖面结构的模糊神经网络评估系统

本文对于船舶结构评估这一类结构非分析问题，应用模糊集合与神经网络相结合的方法，建立了模糊神经网络评估系统。以1～4万吨级散货船的中剖面结构为例，选取7个评估指标，将其满意度作为特征值输入该系统进行评估，效果良好。     

Collapse strength of hatch cover of bulk carrier subjected to lateral pressure load

A series of elastoplastic large deflection FEM analyses has been performed on hatch covers of bulk carriers subjected to lateral load. Two types of hatch covers are considered which are the folding type and the side-sliding type. For the folding-type cover, one size is considered which is for Handy size bulk carrier, whilst for the side-sliding-type cover, two sizes are considered which are for Panamax and Cape size bulk carriers. For each type, two hatch covers are selected which are designed in accordance with the old ICLL rule and new IACS rule, respectively. Calculated collapse strengths are compared with individual design loads, and a strength assessment is performed. On the basis of collapse behaviour observed in FEM analyses, a simple method is proposed to evaluate the collapse strength of a hatch cover subjected to lateral load. It is confirmed that the collapse strength is accurately predicted by the proposed method.     

Two- and three-dimensional hydroelastic modelling of a bulker in regular waves

The relatively high rates of bulk carrier casualties in recent years, as well as structural features such as large deck openings, make this vessel type a suitable example for investigating the influence of hydroelastic modelling on predicting wave-induced loads and responses. Two- and three-dimensional fluid–flexible structure interaction models, due to their different degree of complexity and associated data requirements, can be used at different stages of the design process when estimating wave-induced loads, namely preliminary and detailed design stages, respectively.

In this paper, therefore, two- and three-dimensional hydroelasticity theories are applied to predict and compare the dynamic behaviour of a bulk carrier hull, based on OBO MV Derbyshire, in waves. Both symmetric and antisymmetric motions and distortions are incorporated in these investigations. The three-dimensional structural model consists entirely of shell finite elements, representing all major external and internal structural components, whilst the two-dimensional model is generated using Timoshenko beam finite element and finite difference discretisations. Issues relevant to the structural modelling stage, for both idealisations, are discussed. The in vacuo dynamic characteristics are compared for all models, with particular emphasis on the influence of hatch openings, shear centre and warping on the antisymmetric dynamics of the structure. For the wet analysis the fluid–flexible structure interaction is carried out using two-dimensional (Timoshenko beam and strip theory) and three-dimensional (beam and shell finite element idealisations combined with potential flow analysis based on pulsating source distribution over the mean wetted surface) analyses. Comparisons are made between steady-state responses predicted by two- and three-dimensional models in bow quartering regular waves.

It is shown that whereas the predicted symmetric dynamic responses obtained from two- and three-dimensional models are in good agreement, differences are observed for the antisymmetric dynamic characteristics. It is thought that this may be due to inadequacies in the beam models employed when simulating the global dynamic behaviour of this highly non-prismatic hull girder whilst allowing for the effects of warping.     

某15000DWT散货船货舱结构骨架设计形式比较

文章对15000DWT散货船货舱区域进行全纵骨和全横骨两种骨架形式的结构规范设计,并针对两种骨架形式分别计算货舱结构的总纵强度,最后对两种骨架形式进行了比较,为船舶设计中骨架形式的选取具有一定指导和借鉴意义。