TransMilenio BRT system in Bogota,high performance and positive impact – Main results of an ex-post evaluation

The paper presents the main characteristics, costs and impacts of TransMilenio, the bus based mass transit system of Bogotá, using BRT corridors and feeder services. An ex-post cost-benefit analysis is done, including monetary valuation of direct impacts on travel time and travel cost and externalities, such as improved road safety and air quality. Impacts on crime, land values, employment and tax revenue are also presented. The results are positive and robust; nevertheless, it is important to recognize that user perception has declined and there is urgent need to introduce service improvements. The paper also includes an ex-ante evaluation of the projected expansion using current costs, which indicates the need to limit construction capital costs. The results are an indication of the potential of BRT, and the evaluation methodology is applicable to other transit projects.     

既有桥梁改造方案经济分析模型的构建

在确定既有桥梁各种改造方案的基础上,从工程经济的原理出发,在桥梁全寿命期内,考虑所有可能发生的费用,建立桥梁的全寿命周期费用模型(平均年费用模型),并且对加固、重建方案的平均年费用进行相互比较、分析。同时还基于平均年费用的分析模式,对桥梁的经济使用寿命进行了预测。     

论财务管理在医疗机构发展中的作用

随着国家医疗卫生改革的不断深入,医院要想在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地,医院必须加强财务管理工作。笔者从发挥财务监督职能、财务工作透明化,确定财务管理目标、合理编制财务预算,建立健全财务制度内部控制制度,实行成本核算,搞好医院财务活动的分析和评价五个方面进行了论述,有利于提高医院财务管理水平,使医院在错综复杂的市场竞争环境中立于不败之地。     

技术指标在设计中的灵活运用

讨论了道路设计中诸多制约因素的互相影响,通过分析,预测道路的近、远期交通量以及在区域控制网中的地位,合理确定道路的线形技术指标和经济指标,并阐述了这些指标在设计中的灵活运用。     

The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis

This study investigates the impact of high-speed rail investment on the economy and environment in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The analysis is implemented in a dynamic recursive framework capturing long-run capital accumulation and labor market equilibrium. A national level impact was simulated through direct impact drivers including land use conversion, output expansion, cost reduction, productivity increase, transport demand substitution and induced demand. The results suggest that rail investment in China over the past decade has been a positive stimulus to the economy, while the effect on CO₂ emissions generation has been large. Overall, the economic impacts of rail investment are achieved primarily through induced demand and output expansion, whereas the contribution from a reduction of rail transportation costs and rail productivity increases were modest. In addition, negligible negative impacts were found from land use for rail development and the substitution effect among other modes. Emissions reduction from substitution of rail for other modes was small and offset by output expansion due to lowered rail transport costs and induced demand.     

Integrating land use and transport practice through spatial metrics

Despite the growing development of tools that can integrate land use and transport, the desired integration is still illusive in daily practice. To address this gap, the current study uses spatial metrics, a set of methods traditionally used for studying changes in the spatial structure of landscapes, which are translated into the domain of transport planning. It examines how spatial metrics can be integrated into “Land Use Transport” strategy-making, and how useful they are according to the practitioners’ perceptions. A Light Rail Transit corridor in Granada (Spain) provides the empirical focus of this research. Land use characteristics such as: land use mixing, land use diversity and green areas connectivity were successfully studied using spatial metrics, and they were used to map three “Land Use Transport” strategies: (i) proximity dynamics and non-motorised modes; (ii) modal shift from cars to Light Rail Transit system; (iii) shared spaces between motorised and non-motorised modes. Practitioners perceived that spatial metrics could improve the “Land Use Transport” strategy-making process in comparison with traditional methods used in practice. However, certain shortcomings related to the usability of spatial metrics are also highlighted and discussed. This study concludes with a reflection on research challenges for adapting spatial metrics to transport practice.     

机械化施工方案的技术经济分析

通过对机械化施工方案技术经济的重要性和分析步骤的叙述,介绍了机械化施工中工程成本的内容和计算方法,并重点描述了施工方案技术经济分析方法中常用的工程成本法和回收期计算法.     

基于Markov链修正的铁路运量灰色组合预测模型研究

预测模型的准确与否直接决定着未来经济规划与决策的有效制定。将灰色GM(1,1)-Verhulst组合预测模型与马尔可夫链方法相结合,同时引入信息熵理论的知识,提出基于Markov链修正的熵权法灰色组合预测方法,并以甘肃省2004年～2015年铁路客运量作为原始数据序列进行模型拟合,而且还以此为基础对甘肃省未来几年内的客运量发展趋势进行预测。结论:(1)在已知实际客运量年份内,该灰色组合预测模型的预测精度比单一灰色预测模型更高、更加准确;(2)采用马尔可夫链方法获得该组合模型的偏差规律,并依照此规律对预测结果进行修正,即由一个单一的预测数值修正成为区间和概率组成的预测范围;(3)通过比较2016年～2017年的客运量实际值、组合预测模型的单一预测值和Markov链修正的预测区间值,发现Markov链修正的预测结果与客运量实际值的吻合性良好,进一步验证此预测方法的可信性。     

Resilience in transportation systems: a systematic review and future directions

ABSTRACT

The Belt and Road (B&R) initiative was introduced by the Chinese government to promote the worldwide economic development and multilateral cooperation between China and the associated countries. As a crucial part of global supply chains, transportation plays a key role to ensure the implementation of the B&R. Safety is one of the issues with great importance in transportation research. However, its foci have been expanded from traditional risk through security to resilience and sustainability. Resilience has attracted considerable interests from both researchers and practitioners across different research domains in recent years. Various studies have been conducted on transportation resilience from different perspectives. Consequently, different definitions have been developed to define and describe resilience. This paper presents a systematic review on transportation resilience with emphasis on its definitions, characteristics, and research methods applied in different transportation systems/contexts. It aims to figure out what transportation resilience is and what kind of essential characters it usually has. More importantly, research challenges are analysed and a future research agenda on the resilience of transportation systems is proposed. This paper will provide comprehensive insights into understanding the transportation resilience, as well as establish new horizons for relevant research topics within the context of the B&R.     

新建银川至西安铁路庆阳至西安段建设方案研究

为了确定银西线庆阳至西安段合理的建设方案,重点研究客货共线方案、客运专线方案和先接西平、部分缓建3个方案。综合考虑项目功能定位、通道走向、地形条件,结合路网运量,建设时序、路网分工、投资规模等多方面因素进行综合分析比较研究,研究结论为:银西线庆阳至西安段应按照客货共线方案一次建成。