Bayesian calibration of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical models and benefits for environmental management

Aquatic biogeochemical models have been an indispensable tool for addressing pressing environmental issues, e.g., understanding oceanic response to climate change, elucidation of the interplay between plankton dynamics and atmospheric CO₂ levels, and examination of alternative management schemes for eutrophication control. Their ability to form the scientific basis for environmental management decisions can be undermined by the underlying structural and parametric uncertainty. In this study, we outline how we can attain realistic predictive links between management actions and ecosystem response through a probabilistic framework that accommodates rigorous uncertainty analysis of a variety of error sources, i.e., measurement error, parameter uncertainty, discrepancy between model and natural system. Because model uncertainty analysis essentially aims to quantify the joint probability distribution of model parameters and to make inference about this distribution, we believe that the iterative nature of Bayes' Theorem is a logical means to incorporate existing knowledge and update the joint distribution as new information becomes available. The statistical methodology begins with the characterization of parameter uncertainty in the form of probability distributions, then water quality data are used to update the distributions, and yield posterior parameter estimates along with predictive uncertainty bounds. Our illustration is based on a six state variable (nitrate, ammonium, dissolved organic nitrogen, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacteria) ecological model developed for gaining insight into the mechanisms that drive plankton dynamics in a coastal embayment; the Gulf of Gera, Island of Lesvos, Greece. The lack of analytical expressions for the posterior parameter distributions was overcome using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations; a convenient way to obtain representative samples of parameter values. The Bayesian calibration resulted in realistic reproduction of the key temporal patterns of the system, offered insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs, and also allowed the quantification of the dependence structure among the parameter estimates. Finally, our study uses two synthetic datasets to examine the ability of the updated model to provide estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest.     

Mortality through ontogeny of soft-bottom marine invertebrates with planktonic larvae

The present survey covers one spawning season of marine benthic invertebrates in a large geographical area, the inner Danish waters, and includes a wide range of habitats with steep salinity and nutrient load gradients. The loss ratios of soft-bottom marine invertebrates from one development stage to the next is calculated based on average abundances of pelagic larvae, benthic post-larvae and adults of Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Polychaeta and Echinodermata, with planktonic development. This gives a rough estimate of the larval and post-larval mortality. Loss ratios between post-larvae stage and adult stage (post-larval mortality) varies from 3:1 to 7:1 (71.2–84.9%) and loss ratios between larvae and post-larvae (larval mortality) and between larvae and adult, ranging from 7:1 to 42:1 (85.2–97.6%) and from 45:1 to 210:1 (97.8–99.5%), respectively. The results show a remarkable unity in loss ratios (mortality) between the mollusc taxa (Bivalvia and Gastropoda) at the phylum/class level. This similarity in loss ratios among the mollusc taxa exhibiting the same developmental pathways suggests that the mortality is governed by the same biotic and abiotic factors. Larval mortality is estimated to range from 0.10 d^− 1 to 0.32 d^− 1 for Bivalvia and ranging from 0.09 d^− 1 to 0.23 d^− 1 for Polychaeta. The species loss ratios combined with specific knowledge of the reproduction cycles give estimated loss ratios (mortality) between the post-larvae and the adult stage of 25:1 and 14:1 for the bivalves Abra spp. and Mysella bidentata. For the polychaete Pygospio elegans the loss ratio (larval mortality) between the larvae and the post-larval stage is 154:1 and between the post-larvae and the adult stage 41:1. For Pholoe inornata the loss ratio between post-larvae and adults is 7:1. The present results confirm that the larval stage, metamorphosis and settlement are the critical phase in terms of mortality in the life cycle for Bivalvia. Assuming steady state based on actual measurements of pelagic larval densities an estimated input to the water column of pelagic bivalve larvae is ranging from 10,930 to 17,157 larvae m^− 2 d^− 1 and for Polychaeta between 2544 and 3994 larvae m^− 2 d^− 1. These estimates seem to correspond to the reproductive capacity of the observed adult densities using life-table values from the literature.The potential settlement of post-larvae is 43 post-larvae m^− 2 d^− 1 for Bivalvia and 56 post-larvae m^− 2 d^− 1 for Polychaeta. The adult turnover time for Bivalvia is estimated to be 1.5 years and 2.1 years for Polychaeta. This exemplifies that species with short generation times may dominate in very dynamic transitional zones with a high frequency of catastrophic events like the frequent incidents of hypoxia in the inner Danish waters.     

Iterative Approximation with Errors for Generalized Set-Valued Strongly Accretive Mapping in Banach Spaces

Introduction Variational inequalities are the most interestingand important mathematical problems and have beenstudied intensively in the past years since they havewide applications in mechanics, physics, optimizationand control, nonlinear programming, ec…     

Variability of river plumes off Northwest Iberia in response to wind events

The Western Iberian Buoyant Plume (WIBP) is a low-salinity lens formed by river discharge and continental run-off extending along the shelf off Northwest Iberia. The variability of this structure is evaluated with a numerical model forced by real meteorological data and climatologic river discharge during late 2002, when conditions were those of a typical autumn. The direction and intensity of the wind-induced Ekman transport, but also the previous conditions and the duration of the event are found to determine plume behavior. We have identified three characteristic situations: a) confinement of the plume to the coast during downwelling — southerly-winds, b) expansion of the plume during the declining phase of the downwelling event by relaxation of the wind, and c) expansion of the plume by upwelling — northerly-winds. The short time scale of the response of the plume (1–3 h) adds timing between wind events and the phase of the tide as an additional source of variability. In all cases the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), a saltier and warmer poleward current flowing over the slope, responds as well to wind changes. Furthermore, our simulations illustrate how topography and differences in the river discharge induce local differences in dynamics. Comparisons to available observations show a reasonable model skill. Differences between wind measurements and wind forcing applied to the model appear to be a major source of uncertainty in model results.     

Modelling physical processes of haline stratification in ROFIs with application to the Rhine outflow region

A physical and numerical study is made of the processes governing the stratification and circulation in ROFIs (Regions of Freshwater Influence) where there is an important impact of wind and tides. Observations in the Rhine ROFI showed that the salinity field consists of a mean and a tidally oscillating part. The physical processes are first analysed using the analytical solutions from a one-dimensional two-layer model. A justification is given for the neglection of non-linear advective terms in the equations of momentum and salinity. The dimensionless forms of the solutions can be expressed in terms of a series of dimensionless numbers. It is shown in particular that stratification and cross-shore circulation largely depend on the balance between rotation and turbulent diffusion, which depends in turn on parameters such as the Ekman number, the bottom friction coefficient, the eddy viscosity ratio and the depth of the layer interface. Surface winds either enhance or destroy stratification depending on the wind angle. The response to wind forcing is discussed using classical Ekman theory. To verify the analytical theory numerical tests are performed with a point model including an advanced turbulence closure scheme. Differences arise due to the non-linear interaction between turbulence on the one hand and current shear and stratification on the other hand. It is shown in particular that the amplitude of the tidal forcing and the off-shore horizontal salinity gradient strongly affect the semi-diurnal and semi-monthly variation of stratification. The effect of the wind is found to be in good agreement with the analysis of the two-layer model. Finally, the numerical model is compared with existing observational data in the Rhine ROFI for October 1990.     

The PROFILE project: an overview

The EC MAST project PROFILE (Processes in Regions of Freshwater Influence, ROFIs) aims to develop process understanding and tested numerical models for ROFIs. This includes the role of physical processes controlling water-property distributions, suspended sediments controlling the availability of light, nutrients and phytoplankton growth. The project comprises: (1) construction of a 3D nearshore model, with high resolution (1 h and one km approx.) and a framework coupling modules for hydrodynamics (tides, effects of winds and waves, currents, temperature, salinity, turbulence and diffusivity), sediments, plankton, nutrients and oxygen, (2) investigation of methods to include ROFI model detail in coarser shelf-wide models, (3) specific tests of model components against measurements, (4) tests of model calculations against measurements in contrasted ROFIs, (5) systematic observations suitable for these model tests (time-series over a seasonal cycle for dynamics and intermittency, good vertical resolution and spatial surveys) of the contrasted Rhine, Clyde and Thermaikos Bay ROFIs, complementing earlier measurements in the ROFI areas of the Rhine, German Bight and Po, (6) interpretation and comparison of the contrasted ROFIs' behaviour, (7) a defined set of observations, model code and output suitable for subsequent integration and promulgation as test data and a nearshore model for wider use.     

滨海公路辽河特大桥主桥总体结构静力分析

滨海公路辽河大桥主桥为主跨436m的钻石形双塔双索面钢箱梁斜拉桥.根据该桥的结构特点应用有限元结构分析程序对施工、成桥和运营阶段进行了总体结构静力分析,通过分析结果验证了结构设计的安全性.     

Developing a Sustainable Community-Based Aquaculture Plan for the Lagoon of CuyutlÀn through a Public Awareness and Involvement Process

This study presents evidence from the Cuyutlàn lagoon, which demonstrates that aquaculture can be socially acceptable, economically viable and environmentally friendly when consideration is first taken of the local circumstances and environment. This evidence was obtained through a user survey, which asked key questions of the local fishing community. These questions aimed to determine the desires and needs of the local community in the context of the local environment. The results from this survey of 56% of the fishing community were presented. The wishes of the fishing community are discussed and a compromise suggested for a sustainable aquaculture for the Cuyutlàn lagoon.     

中外斜坡堤胸墙波浪力计算对比

斜坡堤胸墙对于减轻越浪危害至关重要,国内外各胸墙波浪力计算方法的结果差异较大。基于国内外几种斜坡堤胸墙波浪力计算方法,结合工程案例和试验数据进行对比研究。结果表明:1)特定条件下,我国规范计算的水平波浪力压强分布高度远小于Jensen法和Pedersen法结果,后两法计算结果与实测高度一致。2)Jensen法和Pedersen法计算的水平波浪力及浮托力均比国内港工方法大,也大于实测值。3)港工规范计算的总水平波浪力比实测值小,其计算出的浮托力与实测值较为接近。4)Jensen法考虑了掩护棱体肩台高度的作用,Pedersen法考虑了掩护棱体肩台高度与宽度的影响。此二法考虑得相对全面,但其按深水波长计算0.1%超越概率的波浪力,计算结果偏于保守。5)建议重要工程以模型试验结果为准。     

软基处理技术在辽宁省滨海地区废弃盐滩中的综合应用

本文通过辽宁省滨海公路大连市金州北海至葫芦套段七顶山盐场废弃盐滩软基处理的施工,总结了抛石挤淤、堆载预压、强夯置换等软基处理方法在滨海地区软基处理中的综合应用、施工工艺、质量控制手段和质量检验方法。